Price inflection point emerges for hog companies,? Pig industry ushered in a major change

The last three years, hogs have experienced some "flying" changes, first from 5, 6 yuan to more than 20 yuan, and then from more than 20 yuan to the current price of about 7.5 yuan, especially in late June this year, the lowest fell to the level of 6 yuan. The sudden drop in the price of hogs caught pig farmers by surprise, many pig farmers suffered heavy losses, which to a large extent affects the enthusiasm of pig farmers.

In order to save the price of pigs, in June the pig grain ratio fell below 5:1, the upper level opened the storage channel of the reserve meat, first 20,000 tons, then 13,000 tons, and then came a 20,000 tons, 53,000 tons of storage will be the price of pigs once again pulled up to the price of about 8 yuan. But in the capacity recovery and consumption downturn in the background, pig prices are still easy to fall hard to rise, the whole of July and the first half of August, pig prices have been going downhill.

However, in the last month, pork prices have rebounded, so several representative stocks in the pork sector, who is this wave of pig cycle inflection point leader? Before specifically talking about individual stocks, first to give you a talk, our analysis of the logic, that is, the market, the plate, individual stocks in the stage of judgment criteria.

Whether it is the market, plate or individual stocks, they can be divided into four stages: the storage period, climbing period, fatigue period, downhill period.

The first thing we need to look at to measure the stage of the price is the averages.

Here, we use the 30 SMA.

When the 30 SMA from the decline to flatten, this time, is to enter the first characteristics of the period of strength, suggesting that we can pay attention to. Because the bottom stage of the main force to suck, often quietly, so this stage of the price fluctuations are relatively stable trend brewing sense, while the volume of the overall show shrinkage. This stage, is to accumulate strength period, is the stage of selecting good stocks.

When the price breaks through the important resistance level upwards, at the same time the averages are also leveled, turned upwards, then this time, it means that into the climbing period. At this stage, holding is the main focus.

And when the averages by rising, once again turned flat, accompanied by price and volume fluctuations, this time is the fatigue period. Hints of the main force to ship out. This stage is also the profit-taking stage.

When the price fell below the important support level, and the average began to turn down from flat, that is, in the prompting us prices are entering the downhill period. This time to do is to control the hand, remain on the sidelines, waiting for the price again to enter into a new period of strength.

First of all, look at the new hope,

New hope from the third quarter of last year, opened a long way down. Even the decline far exceeded the decline in hog prices.

From above 40 yuan in September last year once fell to this year's lowest near 10 yuan.

This is no longer a waist cut, but a knee cut. The maximum drop is more than 70 percent.

But there have been some changes in the recent trend,

First, it's that the price has started to penetrate the averages, and the decline in the averages has started to slow down.

Secondly, in terms of volume, there has been a significant enlargement of volume near $10.

From the current point of view, although not yet out of the general framework of the downhill period, but there are already signs of phase transition. It's just that the follow-up may still be repetitive.

Looking at Dabei-nong,

Dabei-nong's trend is actually quite a bit better than that of New Hope.

First of all, in terms of decline, Dabei-Nong's decline is much smaller compared to New Hope.

Second, from the trend point of view, new hope is still in the downhill period of the big frame. But Dabei-nong in the recent week has broken upward as shown in the box on the chart, continued for half a year of sideways consolidation of strength, began to enter the climbing period.

However, Dabeinong above is not a flat river, 12 yuan near the previous highs, is more obvious previous resistance area.

Next, look at the big brother of the pig world, Muyuan shares,

Muyuan shares, the current 30-week average downward, the price of the vast majority of the time is also in the average below the run. It is currently in a downhill period.

It's trend is still somewhat similar to that of New Hope, which also experienced a big drop, and then put in volume on the rebound. It's just that the drop is also much smaller than New Hope.

Lastly, look at the GEM pig big brother, Wen's shares,

Wen's shares are now more classic trend, is part of the classic V-shaped reversal trend.

That is, the price after the decline phase, and did not form the bottom phase or the bottom phase is smaller directly to the rise up.

After this long, long, long downhill period, Winnipeg has slowly come up from the bottom near $12.

From the current point of view, the 30-week SMA has shown signs of upward curvature, and the price has closed above the 30-week SMA for several weeks in a row, identifying it as a climbing period.

From the recent two-year trend, new hope and pastoral shares, although there have been signs of phase transition, but is still under the general framework of the downhill period; Wen's shares, although it has entered the climbing period but because of the previous plunge, there are a lot of above the hedge plate. From the current trend, Dabeianong has been in the climbing period, and above the resistance is relatively small, from the rate of increase, is also one of the four in the last two years of the largest increase, the trend is stronger.

In order to make China's hog farming industry in the present as well as the future can be successfully developed, recently, including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the National Development and Reform Commission, including the six departments of the joint voice of the future of China's hog farming industry development direction, China's hog industry is bound to be followed by a major change in the changes that occupy the main body of the hog industry of the bulk of the farmers will be what? What will be the impact of these changes on the bulk of the hog farming industry?

One, policy support

1, the local rational arrangement of breeding land, shall not be illegal demolition of large-scale farmers, and require stable pig loans, shall not arbitrarily draw loans, loan restrictions and loan breaks; 2, vigorously develop the policy of pig insurance; 3, shall not be arbitrarily expand the prohibited areas, as well as the withdrawal of farmers.

The impact on retail farmers:

While the requirements shall not be illegal demolition of pig farms, but this pig farm requirements are large-scale pig farms, and China's large-scale pig farms, the minimum requirement is the annual output of more than 500 head of fattening pigs, but now there are a large number of rural annual output can not meet the requirements, the implication is that these have not reached the target of the scale of the pig farms can be dismantled.

While the requirements of stable loans, not to draw loans, loan restrictions, but the vast majority of rural free-range farmers are unable to meet the conditions of bank loans, they also basically do not have a loan, so this policy is proposed with the free-range farmers also basically no relationship.

Pig policy insurance, for the rural free-range farmers is a good thing, as a free-range farmers are relatively lack of risk resistance, once the pig farms occur non-plague and other serious disease losses, and then encountered the current market downturn in the time is very difficult to turn around. And with the policy insurance, retail farmers can be insured for the herd, so that even if the herd of non-plague can be controlled to minimize losses, there is the possibility of subsequent turnaround.

Not to arbitrarily expand the no-farming zone and retiring farmers is good news for loose farmers, since 2016, the environmental protection high pressure so that many pig farmers are forced to stop breeding, although the capacity of 2019 after a significant drop in order to restore capacity, the regions for environmental protection requirements have been eased, but this year after the capacity is restored, the environmental protection of the restart of farming around the world, the first to bear the brunt of the harm is the loose farmers, and the With this policy, pig farmers to build pig farms as long as in a reasonable area will not be easily retired, is to give the scattered farmers ate a pill of peace of mind.

Second, counter-cyclical control mechanism

China's annual breeding sows stock stabilized at 43 million, the minimum can not be less than 40 million, if the monthly change of more than 50%, the decline will guide pig farmers to replenish the fence, the rise will guide pig farmers to eliminate the low-capacity sows, the monthly year-on-year reduction of more than 10% or more than three consecutive losses, around the start of the rescue subsidy measures. The measures.

The impact on the backyard farmers:

This is not only the impact on the backyard farmers, the entire pig industry has an epoch-making significance, before the pig industry lacks effective data to guide the pig industry, pig prices rise when a swarm of replenishment of fences, pig prices fell when the pile of elimination, resulting in China's pig prices soaring and plummeting, which is very detrimental to the stability of China's pork production to maintain the supply. With reasonable data guidance, both large-scale farms or retail farmers can be based on accurate data to rationally arrange the pig production, the replenishment when replenishment, the elimination of the elimination of the production capacity will be stabilized in a reasonable range, the price of woolen pigs and pork prices can be stabilized in a reasonable range, farmers have money to earn, consumers do not need to eat high-priced pork, a multi-product.

Three, strengthen the management of large-scale pig farms

Require the annual output of more than 500 head of large-scale pig farms into the record, the record of pig farms shall not be easily dismantled, and if it is really necessary to dismantle the need for reasonable economic compensation.

The impact on free-range farmers:

This article is for large-scale pig farms, is considered to give large-scale pig farms to eat a pill of peace of mind, there is a reasonable procedure of pig farms no longer need to be afraid of life. However, it is not friendly to the scattered farmers, scattered farmers can not meet the requirements will not be able to record, or at any time to face the risk of being demolished. And after the stabilization of large-scale pig farms, China's pig prices will enter a relatively stable state, relying on the market rise and fall of the "boat is small and good head" advantage of making money on the backyard farmers will lose the opportunity to speculate.

Four, the establishment of market early warning and disease prevention and control mechanism

Require the relevant departments to strengthen the collection and release of data, so that pig farmers can be the first time to obtain real and effective information. Then there is the promotion of zonal prevention and control of major animal diseases.

The impact on retail farmers:

These two points are both good and bad for retail farmers, the benefit is that with effective data, you can decide to eliminate or replenish according to the situation, and effectively respond to changes in the pig cycle, shorten the period of loss to extend the period of profitability. SARS is still one of the biggest threats to pig farms of all sizes, and the national level of zonal prevention and control helps to stabilize the disease in each region, which makes disease prevention and control much easier for backyard farmers who lack effective biosecurity tools.

The downside is that large-scale pig farms for the control of the scale of farming compared to the retail farmers are stronger, and later on the fight is the production results, in this piece of retail farmers are at a disadvantage. After the zonal prevention and control of major diseases, hogs will be slaughtered mainly in the local slaughtering, slaughtering enterprises to enhance the right to speak, the price of hogs will be more difficult to rise.

Fifth, the size of the pig farm synergistic development

Previously, China's pig farming has been towards the direction of grouping and large-scale development of the document makes it clear that the status of backyard farmers with large-scale pig farms is equal to the requirements to promote the size of the pig farm, backyard farmers and large-scale pig farms of synergistic development.

The impact on the retailer:

If the retailer can be elevated to the same status as the large-scale hog farms, to give the retailer in the capital and technical support for the development of the retailer is of great significance, after all, the lack of retailers is the capital and technology, with the help of the development of a better.

While the free-range farmers play an important role in China's hog farming, but where do they go from here, not only at the higher level, even the free-range farmers themselves may not know. In fact, the existence of rural free-range farmers not only solves the problem of employment of many farmers, for some poor areas out of poverty also helps, but also can be scaled down to the problem of manure treatment of pig farms, free-range farmers in the past and now is essential, and the future is equally essential, from the six departments of the joint voice can also be found in some policies are also tilted to the free-range farmers, along with the formalization of the free-range farmers, China's Hog farming will definitely develop in a better direction.