Evaluation system of consumption level index

(A) the low-level supply-demand relationship and asymmetric structural contradictions of China's cultural industry.

China's cultural market is advancing by leaps and bounds. Since the reform and opening up, especially since the 1990s, on the one hand, all aspects of economic and social life have improved rapidly, and people's cultural and entertainment needs are being released rapidly; On the other hand, various new cultural industries are constantly emerging, and the structure of cultural industries changes frequently. However, the existing statistical data show that China's cultural industry is still in a low level of supply and demand balance and asymmetric structural contradictions.

In absolute terms, there is not much difference between the cultural consumption demand of Chinese residents and the supply of cultural industries.

From the demand side, the per capita GDP of China in 2000 has reached 849 US dollars, and the Engel coefficient reflecting the living standards of urban and rural residents has also dropped below 50%. The per capita disposable income of urban residents reached 6280 yuan, and the per capita consumption expenditure was 4998 yuan. Among them, tourism, entertainment and durable consumer goods, education, cultural services, communications and other cultural-related consumption totaled 949 yuan, accounting for about 19% of disposable income. According to the current urban population of about 400 million in China, the cultural consumption demand of urban residents in China is about 379.6 billion yuan. The per capita income of rural residents reached 2,253 yuan, and the per capita consumption expenditure of 280 yuan was 252 billion yuan. In this way, the cultural-related consumption demand in China should be between 600 billion and 650 billion yuan (6314 billion yuan).

From the supply side, according to the relevant statistical data, the output value of China's cultural industry in recent years (1998 or 1999) is about 600 billion (1998 624 billion), of which education, culture, art, radio, film and television are18/kloc. Domestic tourism revenue is 28.3192 million yuan, books and newspapers are 35.5 billion yuan, posts and telecommunications 1.235 1 00 million yuan (1.998), and audio-visual products127 million yuan. (advertising, etc. Not included.

The above two roughly consistent figures only describe the scale of China's cultural market from two aspects: supply and demand, and cannot draw the conclusion that the development of China's cultural industry can be satisfactory. Simply analyzing, the current situation of the cultural market is only a low-level balance between supply and demand, not to mention the asymmetric balance of structural contradictions due to various institutional problems.

International research shows that when the per capita GDP exceeds $65,438+0,000, the proportion of food, clothing, housing and transportation in consumption expenditure is greatly reduced, while the housing category is basically unchanged, while the cultural and spiritual consumption expenditure begins to rise sharply; The tertiary industry should account for about 40% of the total GDP, and the proportion of the output value of cultural products has also been greatly improved. At present, the per capita GDP of China is close to US$ 65,438+0,000, but the proportion of the tertiary industry (33.2%) is 6 percentage points lower than this standard, and its total amount is about 500 billion RMB. Although we can eliminate the errors caused by consumption habits and institutional factors, and the expenses that may be used for non-cultural consumption (such as medical care, etc.). ), the surplus should be 300 to 400 billion.

How to understand the market vacancy of RMB 300-400 billion?

One explanation is that the cultural consumption capacity of China residents has been greatly suppressed, which has restricted the growth of cultural industries. There are many facts to prove this. For example, according to various scattered figures of China's cultural industry departments, there are a lot of mismanagement and losses in China's film and television industry, and many works are left unattended after publication, resulting in a serious inventory backlog; However, some works suddenly became profitable for unknown reasons. Statistics show that film production has been declining in recent years. 1992, China * * * produced feature films 170, which was the highest in 10, followed by 1995, 146,11. Where have all our ever-increasing audiences gone? In recent years, the economic benefits of traditional cultural and entertainment industries such as karaoke bars and dance halls have declined rapidly and become loss-making industries. These phenomena show that a considerable part of the products provided by China's cultural industry departments cannot meet the growing and ever-changing cultural consumption needs of the people.

Another explanation is that a considerable part of the cultural consumption actually realized by China residents is not included in the statistics. At present, there is a recognized market capacity calculation method in the audio-visual industry, that is, the market capacity of audio-visual products is estimated according to the amount of audio-visual technical equipment owned by consumers. According to this method, China residents currently have about 350 million TV sets, 6.5438+million CD players, 30 million VCD players, 5 million LD players and 6.5438+0.5 million multimedia computers, and so on. According to the statistics that each hardware needs 10 pieces (sets) of new audio-visual products every year, it is believed that the total annual sales of audio-visual products should exceed10 billion yuan, but according to the statistics of relevant departments, the genuine income of audio-visual products in China is less than 2 billion yuan, accounting for 2-3% of the total; According to the statistics of 1999, the genuine income is about 5 billion yuan. Even if the government has stepped up its efforts to "eliminate pornography and illegal publications", the genuine rate has increased. I believe the actual market size should be around150 billion to 200 billion. Facts in this regard show that a considerable number of residents' cultural consumption demand is losing. It is an indisputable fact that there is a huge structural gap between supply and demand in China's cultural market.

The huge gap between supply and demand in the cultural market has become a hidden worry of national cultural and economic security. At present, the personal financial assets of Chinese residents have reached about 9 trillion yuan, and the bank deposits are about 7 trillion yuan. With the gradual introduction of various reform measures in housing, pension, medical care and education, people's consumption demand for culture, education and entertainment will be further released. This is a huge market space, even forming a vacuum that China's cultural industry can't fill at present. After China's entry into WTO, foreign cultural industry groups will probably enter China's cultural market on a large scale by virtue of their multiple advantages in technology and content, and the "limited opening" policy of the cultural market may encounter severe challenges in a short time under the influence of market rules.

In recent years, people have frequently seen such figures: the annual output value of the British cultural industry is nearly 60 billion pounds, and employees account for about 5% of the total employment in the country; The annual output value of Japanese entertainment industry surpassed that of automobile industry as early as 1993. The American cultural industry is more developed, and its audio-visual products have become the largest export products, accounting for more than 40% of the international market. According to media reports, our government has begun to consider allowing some internationally renowned media groups to enter our media market. This is an important signal that the internationalization process of cultural industry may accelerate unexpectedly. China's cultural market has been exposed to the strong pressure of international cultural capital, and the economic and cultural achievements accumulated by China in the past 20 years of reform and opening up have become the coveted goal of international cultural capital.

(B) China's cultural industry business units are numerous, but the degree of industrial organization intensification is not high.

Facing the huge market demand and the siege of international media and cultural groups, China's cultural industry generally lacks competitiveness and is difficult to meet the growing cultural needs of the people, which is enough to worry us. China's traditional cultural industry was born under the planned system, divided by the administrative system for a long time and protected by various policies. The overall pattern formed in this case shows the outstanding characteristics of many business units, low degree of industrial intensification, extremely scattered resources and no emphasis on economic benefits. Today, with the rapid formation of the cultural market, all these characteristics have become weaknesses.

From the perspective of personnel scale, only the cultural industry institutions affiliated to the Ministry of Culture are taken as an example. At the end of 1999, there were 330,700 performing arts groups, theaters, libraries, art galleries, cultural relics protection units and other enterprises and institutions affiliated to the Ministry of Culture, with * * * 166 1500 employees; The number of domestic performances in that year was423,000; The domestic audience reached 469 million. Cultural and entertainment industry174,700 institutions with 903,000 employees. There are 97,000 other operating institutions in the cultural market with 230,000 people. The characteristic of these units is that most of them are small. For example, each unit under the Ministry of Culture has an average of about 5 people.

From the perspective of business scale, the audio-visual industry is a typical example. There are nearly 600 audio-visual products production and reproduction units in China, which produce 10,000 kinds of genuine audio-visual products (tapes, VCDs, CDs and DVDs) every year, with an average annual output of 340,000, with a monthly output of less than 30,000. There are about 70,000 sales units, and all genuine audio and video products sell 200 million pieces every year. On average, each point of sale only sells 3000 pieces a year, and the daily average is less than 10. The wholesale and retail of books is another example. 1999 There are 23,000 book wholesale and retail institutions affiliated to the Ministry of Culture 13056, with an operating income of only 545 million yuan, a per capita turnover of about 23,000 yuan and a daily turnover of 60 yuan.

The problem of scattered resources and low intensity is vividly manifested in the news publishing, radio, film and television industries. China's press and publication system has the same characteristics as the traditional industrial economic management system: the press and publication unit must take a certain administrative organization as the "superior unit" and build on its financial allocation. Once these news publishing units are formed, they will be solidified and can neither be eliminated nor reorganized; The new demand generally comes from new administrative institutions, which are established through new funding, but also have inherent shortcomings. In the long run, the press and publication institutions will expand with the expansion of administrative institutions. Most of these news publishing organizations are small in scale, redundant in construction and inefficient, which can not meet the spiritual and cultural needs of the people, but also cause idle and waste of resources. In the past 20 years, especially in the past 10 years, all parties concerned have been trying to reform the cultural management system in many ways, but the basic situation has not changed fundamentally.

According to the statistics of 1999, there are 2038 kinds of newspapers, 8 kinds of periodicals, more than 500 publishing houses and more than 3000 radio and television stations in China. This is a huge and valuable cultural resource accumulated in decades. Today, when the pattern of all-round opening to the outside world is basically formed, if we don't quickly integrate and optimize, change the business model and enhance the competitive strength, it will inevitably become the hunting target of international media giants.

(3) There is a sharp contradiction between the traditional resource allocation mechanism of China's cultural industry and the requirements of marketization.

In recent years, the system reform of China's cultural industry has begun to enter the "fast lane". During the period of 1998, the functional departments of our government stopped running journals and newspapers directly, withdrew from the publishing business, and cut off the traditional subordinate relationship between news publishing units and various government agencies; More than 2,000 newspapers and more than 8,000 publications have been "forced" onto the track of industrialization. From 65438 to 0999, media groups and multimedia cultural industry groups were established. In 2000, the concept of "media" became popular in the stock market and began to try to combine media groups with the capital market. After the reform of the cultural industry system, waves pushed forward, and gradually entered the overall reform stage from sub-industry and local reform.

However, the confusion and fragmentation of resource allocation mechanism and the contradiction between industry barriers and market requirements still plague the development of China's cultural industry.

The foundation of cultural industry is the market. Modern market economy requires openness, justice and fair competition, and opposes various forms of local protection and monopoly. China's traditional cultural institutions are set up in a "compartmentalized" way (local and industry are vertical and horizontal). Although they are decoupled from the administrative departments to varying degrees and implement "professional centralized management", they are still far from real market competition. There are even some enterprises that monopolize resources, manipulate the market and make huge profits by taking advantage of their traditional ties with administrative organs and their special social welfare nature and ideological functions; However, after some cultural enterprises become bigger, they often encounter resistance when they want to do cross-industry and cross-regional asset restructuring or even merger. Under the situation of China's accession to the WTO and the influence of the international trend of "media convergence", some radio and television, newspapers and publishing enterprises have set up group companies under the coordination of local governments, realizing "strong alliance" and "asset reorganization", and even engaged in some cross-industry and cross-media operations in the local area. This is certainly an improvement. However, we also notice that "media convergence" is a market trend in the west, while in China it mainly relies on government administrative means. How to combine structural adjustment with system transformation is still a problem.

In this way, the development of cultural industry has encountered the problem of deep-seated reform: cultural industry is a special industry, which has both general industrial attributes and social welfare properties. Among them, the core industries such as media industry not only have the characteristics of mass media, but also are the propaganda channels of the party and the country. How to make institutional arrangements according to these characteristics, not only to develop healthily according to the general laws of market economy, but also to ensure the leading role of advanced culture, is a brand-new problem, which requires us to explore boldly with innovative spirit.

However, safeguarding the cultural rights of the broad masses of the people is a more fundamental issue, and it is also the basis for our party and state to ensure leadership over socialist cultural undertakings. It should be noted that under the situation of China's entry into WTO and deepening reform, under the impact of digital information technology, the economic basis and technical basis of the traditional media system have changed, and the way to realize people's cultural rights has also changed: more and more from the non-autonomous way of the state administrative mechanism intermediary to the independent choice way of the market intermediary. This requires us to actively explore new ways to give full play to traditional political advantages under the conditions of market competition. Therefore, we should pay special attention to the study of the new system to regulate the development of cultural market, the new mechanism to guide the circulation of spiritual products and the new organizational form of active cultural production. Only in this way can we really promote the development of culture.

Of course, we also see that after the global "media integration" and "deregulation", even western developed countries are rethinking how to treat the cultural content industry with new industrial policies and new institutional arrangements because of the unbalanced development of the cultural content industry. Protecting national cultural heritage, carrying forward national cultural traditions and ensuring national cultural security have become the common strategic theme of all countries in the world in the face of globalization, and there will be many experiences worth learning. What our decision makers need to do is to look forward, not backward.

(D) There is a strategic contradiction between the advanced requirements of the development of China's cultural industry and the lack of cultural originality, and the resource potential cannot be transformed into industrial strength.

There are some unique conditions for developing China's cultural industry. First of all, China culture has a great influence. The population using Chinese is the largest in the world. China's long history and culture have a wide influence not only in China, but also in Chinese communities in Southeast Asia, North America and Europe. This should be said to be the most favorable condition for China cultural enterprises to explore the market, because the differences between language and culture have always been regarded as the biggest negative factor in economic globalization and international exchange. In the monopolistic competition theory of economics, maintaining product differences is considered to be the key to maintaining the monopoly power of products in the market. The difference of cultural products first comes from the uniqueness of values and expressions; Cultural differences are also our comparative advantages in international competition and catching up with developed countries.

Judging from the factors of production, China's cultural resources are extremely rich and universally recognized. With the development of civilization for thousands of years or even longer, there are still many historical and cultural sites and relics, as well as various types of natural geography and human geography landscapes in the vast territory; Millions of art treasures, classics and cultural relics are kept in libraries and museums; There are many tangible and intangible cultural symbols in China people's customs and festivals. Scholars in the field of humanities and social sciences in China have continuously studied and disseminated traditional culture. All these provide inexhaustible inspiration for the design, production and innovation of China cultural products and other durable consumer goods that can bear cultural symbols.

But just being satisfied with this is obviously out of date. In today's world, culture has its primitive form, economic form and technical form. Thanks to the capital market and information technology, emerging cultural industries have achieved unprecedented rapid development, transforming a large number of cultural resources into industries and wealth. It is in the above two aspects that China is passive and slow.

For example, cultural tourism is an important way to transform the potential of national cultural resources into industrial strength, and tourism is the most industrialized department among all cultural industries in China. However, successful cases of transforming cultural heritage into industry in this field are still extremely rare. From the disastrous "man-made landscape craze" in various parts of China many years ago to the many debates on whether the ownership and management of cultural heritage can be separated and how to introduce the market mechanism in recent years, many problems have not been discussed in depth and turned into reasonable policies and regulations. Facts have proved that a theme park built out of thin air will never have credibility, while using a large number of cultural relics is tantamount to destruction, and the correct road should obviously be between the two. However, how to combine the protection and development of cultural heritage organically, so as to protect cultural heritage and promote cultural tourism, we have not been able to have a clear policy, thus delaying many development opportunities.

Digitalization of cultural heritage is the key link to transform national cultural resources into emerging industrial bases. At present, the "cultural content revolution" is being launched on a global scale. In order to meet the arrival of the information age, all countries in the world are transforming cultural heritage into digital form on a large scale. From 65438 to 0992, UNESCO began to promote the "Memory of the World" project, the purpose of which is to promote the digitization of cultural heritage around the world, so that it can be preserved permanently and enjoyed by the public to the maximum extent. From 65438 to 0999, at the initiative of Finland, EU countries began to launch a multi-country framework cooperation project, which was named as the "content creation start-up plan", and the digitalization of cultural heritage was determined as the basic content. It can be said that due to the start of the National Digital Library Project (1996), it is not too late to start the digitization process of cultural resources in China, but up to now, the national development strategy has not yet been formed, nor has it been upgraded to the basic project of the national cultural industry construction, which is a deep crisis in the development of China's cultural industry.

Transferring to digital media is a necessary step to develop traditional cultural resources into economic resources, which is essentially a preparation for unprecedented industrial integration and has great economic significance. International information technology groups and cultural media groups have already begun to integrate digital cultural resources around the world to prepare for the development of new world markets; China's cultural resources are related to the market share of China's cultural products, which they have coveted for a long time. 1999, the American blockbuster Mulan sounded the alarm for us: China's cultural resources were transformed into cultural products by the hands of international media capital and became a strong competitor of China's cultural industry; On May 1 2000, China experienced the first peak of "holiday economy", and the murals in Dunhuang Grottoes were "overwhelmed" under the pressure of a large number of tourists. The American Foundation began to discuss with me the plan of "Digital Virtual Cave". In the same year, Japanese information technology companies accelerated the negotiation process with the Palace Museum in China to establish a digital multimedia online Palace Museum. These two events show that developed countries have begun to seek a new round of development of China's cultural resources by virtue of their dual advantages in economy and technology, and this trend deserves our attention.

(V) The contradiction between WTO rules and the current policy support system for cultural industries in China.

WTO is a legal system as well as a policy system. Many agreements and agreements formed by WTO are widely involved in various fields of cultural industries, and the rules and regulations related to cultural industries are mainly contained in the basic rules of WTO's service trade and intellectual property protection, namely the General Agreement on Trade in Services and the Agreement on Trade-related Intellectual Property Rights. Therefore, its basic principles will naturally become the text basis for member governments to formulate and implement domestic cultural trade policies, which will inevitably bring institutional, legal and policy impacts to the country's cultural management system and cultural industry policy support system.

Since 1980s, China has started to reform its cultural system, and since 1990s, China has set the reform goal of the socialist market economic system. Up to now, a cultural industry policy system consisting of a series of administrative regulations and rules has been initially established, as well as the cultural management mechanism established by this system, including: Regulations on the Management of Cultural and Entertainment Places, Regulations on the Management of Performance Markets, Regulations on Film Management, Regulations on Publishing Management, Regulations on Radio and Television Management, and Regulations on Radio and Television Management.

But the problem is that the existing cultural industry policy text system is basically formulated and formed in the process of the transformation of the two systems. It is not the rules of the game made after China's entry into the WTO or according to WTO principles. Therefore, it has traces of planned system to a great extent, which leads to the contradiction between the purpose of the existing policy and the requirements of WTO for China's cultural industry policy. At the same time, because the cultural management and cultural industry policies in different fields in China are mainly formulated by different administrative departments of the government and released in the name of the government, the interests of industries and departments are relatively strong. In this way, in the value adjustment and function play of the whole policy and the authoritative distribution of social and cultural resources by the government, the due publicity, fairness and fairness are relatively poor. These are obviously inconsistent with the WTO's principles of trade liberalization, transparency and market access, and there are inherent rules conflicts.

Our government is gradually stepping up the reform of the cultural management system, and the revision and promulgation of the Copyright Law of People's Republic of China (PRC) has done a lot of work in the standardization and docking of domestic laws and international laws. However, because these measures have not fundamentally solved some fundamental problems in the system and system of China's cultural industry development, such as administrative monopoly, market access, diversification of investment subjects, and reform of property rights relations of cultural enterprises, old contradictions have not been eliminated, and new conflicts have further emerged. At the same time, because the original cultural policy system has not lost its policy effectiveness due to institutional reform and the merger of cultural administrative departments, there has also been a phenomenon that new institutions implement old policies and "bottle old wine in new bottles". In the name of resource reorganization and optimal allocation, some localities and fields have highly concentrated cultural administrative power, which makes the cultural industry policies formulated in the process of transition from planned economy to market economy not only lose the original institutional basis, but gain new support.

China's cultural industry management department put forward the idea of "grand cultural management", but due to the lack of innovative support from the policy system, the expected reform effect has not appeared, and it is difficult for the government to realize the strategic change from "running culture" to "managing culture". For China, the key to the successful entry into WTO is to realize the organic connection between system innovation and policy system innovation. If the overall innovation can't be realized at the system and policy level, the development prospect of China's cultural industry in the 2 1 century may not be so optimistic.

Cultural industry is a special industry, which is still in the process of development and transformation. Therefore, the fundamental problem is institutional. Any country's industrial policy has two basic points, namely, market orientation and policy orientation, not to mention the existence and growth of China's cultural industry in a more special environment. In a sense, our understanding of cultural market and cultural industry today and the rationality of cultural industry policy based on it will affect the development of cultural industry in China for a long time to come, and will further affect the adjustment and upgrading of the whole economic and industrial structure in China. The development of cultural industry has become a science, but the process of formulating a truly reasonable industrial policy has just begun. At present, we need a spirit of active exploration.

Fourthly, the development trend of China cultural industry is analyzed.

According to the annual GDP growth rate of 7%, by 2005, when the Tenth Five-Year Plan is completed, China's GDP will reach more than 14000 USD. Based on the output value of 600 billion yuan in 2000 and the conservative growth rate of 12% set by some cultural industry management departments in the Tenth Five-Year Plan, by 2005, the annual output value of China cultural industry is likely to reach 1 trillion yuan or even more, which will be a huge market. Judging from the reality of China's healthy economic development since the reform and opening up, this goal is possible. However, with the globalization of cultural industry and China's entry into the WTO, who will be able to get the fruits of this cultural and economic grafting? Who will be the winner and beneficiary of this huge market?

The completion of the legalization of China's cultural industry only marks the beginning of real development. China's cultural market is huge, its industrial development has just started, and there are a lot of problems. Only by stepping up reasonable design and specification from all aspects can we develop healthily. Great changes have taken place in the macro-environment of China's socialist market economic system. In this context, the overall requirements for the rationalization of cultural industry are: not only should we consider the important role of accelerating the development of cultural industry in the strategic adjustment of China's economic structure, but also consider the relevance of cultural system reform and the overall deepening reform of the country; Consider not only establishing a fair, just and open market access mechanism, but also maintaining national cultural security and establishing a safe and reliable management system; It is necessary to quickly improve the national cultural industry policy and legal system, straighten out the relationship between various cultural industry policies, re-examine the modern ethical principles of the cultural market, and build the value basis of cultural policies and regulations.

We believe that the general trend of the rational development of China's cultural industry will not change, but there will still be various uncertainties for a long time, which will lead to some twists and turns in this process. According to the current observation, the development trend of China's cultural industry in the next few years will generally present the following characteristics:

(1) Competition in regional cultural industries has been launched in an all-round way, and the imbalance in the development of cultural industries across the country has been further highlighted, and the coordinated development of central and local cultural industries has entered a new stage.

In the later period of the Ninth Five-Year Plan, quite a number of provinces and cities in China have completed the development plan of cultural industry in the Tenth Five-Year Plan and even the next fifteen years, and regarded cultural industry as a pillar industry. 2002 will be the first year when these plans are put into practice. With the full implementation of these plans, the importance of cultural industry in promoting regional economic growth and improving the comprehensive competitiveness of regional economy will become increasingly prominent. With the lag of system reform, regional cultural industry competition will be launched in all aspects, and local strategic interests and local protectionism will show their rationality in new ways of existence, which are manifested in market competition and anti-competition, entry and anti-entry, cooperation and anti-cooperation, integration and anti-integration. The imbalance in the development of cultural industries between the east and the west may be further widened, and the contradictions and conflicts in the development of cultural industries between the north and the south will be further highlighted. While the national overall plan for the development of cultural industries plays a guiding role in the cultural industries in various regions, the tendency of independent choice in the development of regional cultural industries will be more budding, and the "enclosure movement" of cultural industries will cause great difficulties in docking with the overall layout of national cultural industries; A number of regional cultural industry development centers will most likely appear in those provinces and big cities that have taken the lead in launching and gained the advantage of standing. "Champion for hegemony" will be inevitable, and the implementation of the basic idea of national cultural industry layout structure adjustment will encounter certain difficulties.

(2) The movement of upgrading the internal structure of the cultural industry is accelerating. The rapid development of the information industry will drive the strategic adjustment of the cultural industry structure, and the development of digital cultural industry will become the main trend to enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of the cultural industry.

The next development of China's cultural industry will take development as the theme and structural adjustment as the main line. We will promote structural adjustment and market integration through deepening reform, and promote industrial optimization and upgrading and efficiency growth through changing business models, so as to achieve the purpose of strengthening strength, enhancing vitality and improving competitiveness. The cultural industry related to information industry will become the main force to lead the upgrading of cultural industry structure and enhance comprehensive competitiveness.

During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the information technology industry will grow at a rate of 25% to 40%, which will be the biggest bright spot to promote the upgrading of China's industrial structure during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period. The huge correlation effect of this industry on China's cultural industry will be fully displayed in the next few years. China's cultural industry, especially the cultural and entertainment industry, will have a new industrial division of "online cultural and entertainment industry" and "offline cultural and entertainment industry". Traditional mainstream cultural industries such as karaoke bars, dance halls and game halls will give way to new cultural industries such as digital TV, digital movies, broadband access, video on demand and online games. The further improvement of the per capita ownership rate of information technology products in China will lead to the rapid growth of the demand for various information and cultural consumer goods, and give birth to one emerging market after another. The competition of various "digital standards" will become the most strategic competition after the competition of wide network access from 2000 to 200 1 year. The hardware competition of information culture industry will shift to the dispute between software and content, which is more decisive for survival and development. After the "cold wave" of 2000-200 1, the network industry will show the trend of recovery, the cultural information industry and the cultural e-commerce will rise suddenly, and the new framework system of China's cultural industry will take shape in this process.

(3) The reform of the cultural industry system will make a major breakthrough in its core field-the media industry, thus promoting the comprehensive deepening and integration of the reform of various industries in the cultural industry, giving substantial play to the basic role of the market in resource allocation, and basically forming a pattern in which the government and the market adapt.

During the Ninth Five-Year Plan period, with the government as the first driving force, various types of cultural industry groups were established in various industries of the cultural industry, among which various media industry groups were the most eye-catching. This development trend will continue. With the substantial development of the interaction and integration of traditional media with Internet and cable TV networks, and with the successful experience of China's economic reform and the successful reference of foreign media system innovation in the field of media reform, the process of institutional innovation in China's media field will be accelerated, the original administrative examination and approval system for market access will be replaced by the new registration system, the original industry barriers will be softened, and the basic role of the market in resource allocation will be substantially brought into play.

For example, according to the general law of international development, further deepen the reform of China's radio and television system to make room for China's program manufacturing or content manufacturing; The competition mode of directly entering the media will gradually be replaced by directly controlling programs; The emergence of program providers and the "oligopoly" of program supply will form a real content industry and change the current competitive pattern of media industry; Media integration will evolve into multi-modality integration of cultural industries.

In this process, the compatible pattern between the government and the market will basically take shape, and the market will be ineffective and politicized.