Now that stocks are cheap, is it suitable for buying stocks? The stock will keep going up!

In this critical period, let's talk about our views on the investment situation and the future trend of the A-share market, hoping to give you useful reference (this article is a little longer, but it has certain reference value for people with destiny).

I. American Conspiracy and Crisis. The rule of capitalist economy is that when the bubble is big, it will burst and then start all over again. The United States has long pursued a foreign policy of piracy logic. For decades, it has frequently created military wars and plundered the world, while periodically creating financial and economic wars. In the past two decades, such as 1988' s attack on the Japanese yen, 1998' s Asian financial turmoil, the attack on the RMB since 2006 (forced appreciation, which has not yet ended, has entered the midfield), the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007 (when it deliberately failed to rescue the market), and the financial tsunami that swept the world in 2008, all left behind the United States. Some people in Europe say that letting Lehman fail was premeditated. Lehman borrowed 8 billion euros from the European Central Bank before the collapse, and the British branch remitted 4 billion dollars to the US headquarters the day before the collapse (even the British brothers were spared). In recent years, after the subprime mortgage crisis (which did not break out publicly at that time), investment companies with severe subprime mortgage crisis such as Lehman continued to sell their bonds to rich countries or regions around the world like wolves. Before its collapse, it not only made a fortune for countries and regions, but also extended its claws to individual investors. There are indications that the theory of "premeditated" is established. The United States has been making financial (currency) wars by virtue of the dollar advantage, and is good at playing financial games to circle money. Anyway, the money for "making money in the future first" is yours. Use your money to develop my economy and blow up a big bubble. If the bubble bursts, you will "pay the bill" What if several Lehman-style investment banks in the United States or even 10 or 20 banks fail? Anyway, the operating funds of these investment banks basically come from bonds, and the main creditors of bonds are other countries. The United States understands the economic law of capitalist ups and downs, using bond investment as bait and the exchange rate of the US dollar as a tool to lure others in during the economic climax and suck others' blood in the slippery waves of economic recession.

At present, China's foreign exchange reserves are 1.9 trillion US dollars, but poor management seriously violates the investment principle of foreign exchange reserves, putting most of its eggs in one basket, and now holds 1.2 trillion US debt (to support the wicked). Among them, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hold $376 billion in corporate bonds (becoming the largest foreign creditors), while other corporate bonds together hold more than $500 billion in subordinated debt, accounting for about 27% of foreign exchange reserves, and holding US Treasury bonds accounts for about 39% of foreign exchange reserves. Together with 20% of US dollar liquidity reserves, China's foreign exchange reserves hold US dollar assets of about $65,438 +0.6 trillion. If the US dollar depreciates from the RMB exchange rate in 7 yuan to 5 yuan (China has bought more American bonds than 7 yuan on average in recent years), and the loss of subprime bonds, it is estimated that China's existing foreign exchange reserves will lose about one third in three years. In the first two decades of the 30 years of reform and opening-up, the foreign exchange income reserve (about one third now) was the most labor-intensive achievement, which really condensed the hard-earned money of China people. Twenty years of hard-earned money may be swallowed up by an American election.

The United States has made a big fuss about games this time to save the market. Where did the money from the US rescue come from? There are three possibilities: one is to cut fiscal expenditure. This may not be possible. Otherwise, there will be a deficit of 400 billion yuan. What will fill the deficit gap? Or use the money raised by national debt to fill it. Second, more and more government bonds will be issued and sold to children all over the world. Who will buy US Treasury bonds? It is difficult for European countries to be vigilant against themselves and it is impossible to buy US Treasury bonds. China will not continue to be a "sucker", will he? Third, if the issuance and sale of government bonds fail, only a large number of US dollars can be printed, resulting in a sharp depreciation of the US dollar. As the world's largest currency, if the dollar depreciates sharply, it will have a very serious impact on the global financial economy, especially for the countries that hold the most foreign exchange reserve assets in dollars, which will form a situation of "holding together and mutually assured destruction" with the United States. In the case of strong opposition from the people of China to buying American bonds again, US Deputy Treasury Secretary McCormick said: "The United States will not ask China to buy anything." However, after that, the temptation was revealed: "At present, American national debt is very popular." We believe that the United States actually wants China to continue to buy its national debt, but it doesn't know how to force China to submit. It is estimated that China will eventually be forced to buy US Treasury bonds, which is only a matter of buying more and buying less. Among the above three possibilities, printing a large amount of dollars is the most likely to lead to a sharp depreciation of the dollar, which is also an established strategic step for the United States to carry out this financial and economic war. Saving the American market is undoubtedly "digging up meat to mend sores." Of course, digging more for others' meat and less for yourself can only give you a chance to breathe and delay, or it can curb the expansion of the crisis and reduce losses, but it is impossible to stop the trend of economic recession.

In recent years, some people in China seem to have forgotten the ancestral motto of "hiding their light and keeping their wits about them". With a few dollars, they are complacent and sharp-edged, and appear in the international community as rich people, buying other countries' bonds at will (regardless of feasibility). At the beginning of the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, they also bought a large number of US bonds. At that time, some people said that they would save America. Really stupid, naive and ignorant. China has entered the old-age society. However, nearly 654.38 billion urban residents, farmers, herdsmen and fishermen are not included in the social old-age security system, which is like having one foot at the middle level and the other foot still staying in the ranks of poor countries. History is a mirror. When our strength is not enough to counter the enemy, we can only "hide our strength and bide our time". The Hundred Regiments Battle of the Eighth Route Army in War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression, although * attacked and contained the Japanese army, cooperated with the frontal battlefield and * exerted the military strength of our army, prematurely exposed the strength of our army, which led to the large-scale mopping-up by the Japanese aggressors and the "Southern Anhui Incident" created by the Kuomintang. I lost more than half of most of the troops in the besieged army, and some of them were even completely annihilated, with extremely tragic consequences. Afterwards, some parties remembered the ancestral motto of "hiding your light and keeping a low profile" and sighed.

Recently, an official media said: "In the global financial crisis, China's financial industry escaped a bullet." This statement is too early to agree. We believe that the financial tsunami may have the following effects on China: First, it will lead to the retrogression and contraction of exports, so that export enterprises can only turn to domestic competition in the same industry, which will greatly reduce the profits of the same industry and other industries and force some vulnerable people to withdraw from the market (close down). Second, household consumption tends to be conservative, which makes commodity consumption tend to shrink, leading to a sharp decline in domestic demand. Third, the shrinkage of commodity consumption accelerated the decline of house price value, which led to the final bursting of the property market bubble. Fourth, the bursting of the property market bubble led to the break of the capital chain of the real estate industry and the supply interruption tide, which eventually led to large-scale bad debts of financial institutions and formed a local financial crisis. The above concerns are not groundless.

Second, the role and cost of rescue measures. September 19 finally ushered in three major rescue policies, including one-way stamp duty collection, repurchase or increase of shares of listed companies by central enterprises, and independent purchase of shares of ICBC by Central Huijin Company. Changyang, which has been in the market for a long time, but I believe it is also a copy of 4.24. From 4.24 to 9. 19, not only did we not see any substantial favorable policies to protect the stock market, but new shares were issued as usual, and even large-cap stocks such as China CSR were issued as usual, which shows that the management did not pay attention to the security of the A-share market at that time. The management still faces the new market environment with the old thinking mode, thinking that as long as there is policy guidance, it can save the market at any time, but it missed the opportunity to save the market at the end of May and the beginning of June (the spiritual atmosphere of national earthquake relief) (the market was not broken at that time). The market fell to 3000 points, full of sadness, eager for policy regulation; Falling to 2000 points is even more superficial, unrecognizable and upset. When most investors have completely lost confidence, it is too late to rescue the market. What's more, the financial crisis has spread all over the world, and the capitalist economic recession cycle has appeared. Although China's finance and economy are not completely open and there are few bubbles, they are basically capitalist models (self-proclaimed market economy) and are inevitably affected by the economic recession cycle. Therefore, at this stage, I am afraid that any rescue measures are difficult to change the trend of A-share bear market. Investors should have a clear understanding of this.

In the face of the financial tsunami and the trend of A-share bear market, the management may introduce measures to stimulate the stock market one after another, such as margin financing and securities lending, stock index futures, T+0, setting up stabilization fund, releasing unilateral price limit (only falling but not rising) and indexing derivatives. We believe that most of these measures are tools to balance the market, with "trends" and bubble-making elements. Bull market helps rise, bear market tends to fall. Take stock index futures as an example. If it is launched in the middle and primary stage of the bear market at this stage, its unique "trend" will not play a role in balancing the market during the running-in period, but will help it fall and become a tool for short-term gambling. In addition to the "trend", margin financing and securities lending are more bubbly and risky, which is not conducive to market stability. Therefore, apart from setting up a stabilization fund (depending on the timing of entering the market and whether the fund quota is well grasped), all the above rescue measures are just "cardiotonic agents" at this stage of the bear market. After the drug has passed, they still return to the state of "heart failure", unable to reverse the trend, and can only play a role in breathing and delaying. If the timing of these measures is not well grasped, it may also become an incentive to accelerate the decline of the broader market.

Third, the feasibility of setting up stabilization fund to save the market. To set up a stabilization fund to rescue the market (Huijin is trying to play this role for the time being), there must be a quota of about one trillion yuan in such a bad situation. Where can I raise so much money? Can't put the cart before the horse to save A shares and abandon the real economy? Moreover, it is extremely risky to use a large amount of (a small amount of ineffective) financial funds to save the market. We should consider having a sufficient margin of safety and take the principle of "being able to save and get out". If it fails, it will cause huge losses in many aspects and the consequences will be very serious. Previous operational experience may become a trap to destroy yourself in the face of the current global financial tsunami. 10 years ago, during the Asian financial turmoil, Hong Kong rescued the market in the form of stabilization fund. On the eve of the rescue, Financial Secretary Donald Tsang burst into tears. He knows that it is impossible to save the market only by the strength of the stabilization fund, and he only hopes to use it to stabilize market confidence. If he fails, Hong Kong's financial economy will be doomed to failure. Fortunately, Hong Kong was able to successfully rescue the market with the help of the stabilization fund, because it had the strong backing of the motherland (the country made a statement at that time) and stabilized people's hearts. Who is supporting the A-share rescue now? We should rely on real money as our backing. Although the current fiscal revenue of more than 5 trillion yuan is the best period in history, it is only a few thousand yuan. If every resident is given a red envelope of 5,000 yuan like Macau, the fiscal reserve (China has no concept of fiscal reserve) will be several years behind. It can be seen that although fiscal revenue is the best period in history, it is still stretched.

The timing of setting up stabilization fund to save the market is debatable. If we go into the market to rescue the market now, we can only cover the evacuation of some trapped funds. Whoever runs fast will benefit the world. After all, 1500 is by no means the bottom in the near future, and 1000 is not necessarily the bottom in the medium term. Therefore, entering the market to rescue the market like "the cow is dead" may make the rescue funds fall into a tight encirclement and waste the rescue resources. We believe that the timing of entering the market to rescue the market can only be chosen in the middle of the financial crisis affecting the real economy and entering a period of shock. At this time, the A-share market is in a downturn, the market value may shrink by more than half, and the safety margin is high. As long as 500 billion yuan is enough, it conforms to the principle of "rescue" and can achieve the purpose of shortening the bear market cycle.

Fourth, the sponsors of A shares and the management of non-size issues. The non-size problem has always been a long-standing problem in the A-share market, and the administrative commitment during the share reform has put the management in a "dilemma". From another point of view, if you take compulsory measures against the size of non-equity, then the effectiveness of your share reform and administrative credit, as well as the legitimacy of your compulsory measures, are all questioned. The size of the target has been in extreme fear, and will run away at the slightest sign (rumor). At present, as long as there is an opportunity to lighten up, after all, the original shares with a cost of zero to a few cents per share, cashing in a few yuan or even dozens of yuan, are immeasurable destructive to the market outlook. I believe that in one or two years, when the market value drops to a certain low level, there will be opportunities and solutions acceptable to all three parties.

Five, PetroChina is only worth 3 yuan to 4 yuan. On April 6, 2000, PetroChina went public in the United States, raising $2.9 billion. Dividend11900 million dollars to American shareholders in four years (not counting the last three years), and get the reputation of "the most profitable company in Asia". On the other hand, in June, 2007, PetroChina A-shares raised RMB 66.8 billion, equivalent to US$ 9.54 billion, which was 2.29 times that in the United States, but the dividend paid to shareholders of A-shares was less than US$/kloc-0.0 billion. Based on the six-year dividend distribution (the dividend situation of US stocks in recent two years is unknown), it is estimated that the dividend of US stocks is 20-30 times that of A shares. China Petroleum H shares were listed in Hong Kong on April 7, 2000, with an issue price of HK$ 65,438 +0.6. Later, the issue price of PetroChina A shares was 16.7 yuan, and the issue price of A shares was about 10 times that of H shares. At that time, the price of oil in H shares opened by Buffett was only HK$ 65,438 +0.6. He bought 2.34 billion shares and began to sell them in July 2007, making a lot of money. Will Buffett buy PetroChina A shares at the price of 5 yuan in the future? Of course not! Petrochina has a low dividend when it issues at a high price in China and a high dividend when it issues at a low price abroad. It plunders at home and gives away, not shares and benefits. American investors and H-share investors not only enjoy "national treatment", but also enjoy "VIP treatment". A-share investors pay more and enjoy "slave treatment". It can be seen that the issue price of PetroChina A shares is seriously overestimated, and its value in the A-share market is clear at a glance. Since PetroChina has given A-share investors "slave treatment", the A-share market can also give PetroChina A-shares "international market treatment" fairly in the big bear market environment and restore its actual value. Based on the premium of HK$ 65,438 +0.6, the valuation of PetroChina in A shares is about 3 yuan to 5 yuan.

PetroChina A shares were listed on June 5, 2007, with an opening price of 48.60 yuan. 165438+1closing price on October 7 is 40.43 yuan. At that time, we couldn't bear to see PetroChina become a slaughterhouse for investors, so we urgently posted warning posts in forums and stock bars, reproduced as follows:

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1 PetroChina is only worth 20 yuan, and its issue price is seriously overestimated, so it should be around 6 yuan.

The share price of PetroChina is seriously overvalued, and it is only worth 20 yuan in the bull market. After a few years, it will only be worth about 10 yuan. You don't believe me? It remains to be seen.

Author: * wsqryi 2007-11-0716:16: 06 I support it, but I object to answering the question.

This reminder post only aroused the vigilance of a few investors at that time. Most investors expect China Oil to soar like Shenhua in China, to 60 yuan and even 80 yuan. In less than a year, the stock price operation of PetroChina has verified our foresight. We believe that among the big bear markets affected by the financial tsunami, PetroChina is only worth 3 yuan to 4 yuan. The major shareholder of PetroChina recently announced that it will increase its holdings by 60 million shares and will continue to increase its holdings. I believe that the major shareholders of PetroChina also have the opportunity to taste the deep-seated heavy losses of funds. It is estimated that in the next year or two, PetroChina will continue to drag down the broader market, and the broader market will bottom out between 3 yuan and 4 yuan. This bottom is long.

6. Forecast the trend of A-share market. We believe that this financial crisis may become the biggest crisis since the capitalist economic system in the world. In this context, we can't face today's A-share market with past operational experience. This bear market may be different from any other bear market, and the bottom of the market may return to the low area of the Shanghai Composite Index before 12. From now until the end of the year, the market will go on step by step. When the policy is favorable, there will be a pulse-like rebound, and each rebound will become the driving force for the decline. Occasionally, there will be rapid diving (diving) corresponding to pulse rebound. Under the influence of the rapid decline after the positive pulse rebound, the market's response to the positive is gradually depressed, the pulse rebound is getting weaker and weaker, and it is allergic to the negative, and there is a rapid decline. The market index is free to drift down most of the time, and may approach the 1000 mark at the end of the year.

In 2009, the Shanghai Composite Index was running below 1 0,000 most of the time, and a downward sloping "beach" was built. Occasionally, there are waves that are suspected of hitting the bottom, and then calm down and continue to build a "beach" that slopes downward. The market features are as follows: the trading volume in Shanghai stock market is gradually shrinking, and the daily trading volume is below 20 billion yuan for a long time at the lowest point, or below 65.438+0 billion yuan occasionally. The decline of individual stocks is not only a process of value regression, but also an irrational process of cutting meat and suppressing it. The current price of most stocks fell by more than 50%, and some high-priced stocks fell by more than 70%. Binary shares with less than three yuan abound, accounting for more than 50% of the total number of shares. The social characteristics of the mid-term downturn of the stock market (after the second half of 2009) are as follows: First, friends and colleagues close to prestige avoid talking about stocks; Second, the media rarely reports the stock market; Third, most brokers have difficulties in operating and cannot make ends meet; Fourth, the management is too busy maintaining the real economy and financial industry to take care of the stock market, let alone rescue the market. Fifth, people have become accustomed to the downturn and decline of the stock market, and no longer worry and pay attention. It must be pointed out here that the low point in 2009 is not the long-term bottom. At present, it is preliminarily assumed that the bear market cycle is three years.

We believe that there is no shortage of funds in the current A-share market. What is lacking is the investment environment (low margin of safety) and investment confidence. If the investment environment improves (with a high margin of safety) and there is a market in the future, funds will come uninvited.

Seven, a little sorry. On April 24th, we published "Reversal Market Establishment, Market Outlook Forecast" (one post after another), holding that 3,000 points is the policy bottom line, and it is possible for the management to continuously introduce policy regulation to push the index back to the safe area above 3,500-4,000 points and continue the bull market operation pattern. However, after the "5. 12" Sichuan earthquake, the situation took a turn for the worse, and we also saw that the management had no intention to save the market at all. At the beginning of June, the market was in danger (the bull turned to bear), and we issued reminders in the form of posts one after another, pointing out that the management was unable to regulate the market, and the prediction of "heaven and earth weather" had a significant impact on the political and economic environment (many people did not believe in heaven and earth weather, but Mao Zedong believed it very much) ... We thought that the bear market pattern had formed, and we were bearish on the A-share market for a long time (the severity of the international financial crisis had not been seen at that time), and at the same time proposed that we could not watch it.