China Economic Weekly: Why does the "new economy" underestimate GDP?

Xu Xianchun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out at the 10th China Economic Growth and Cycle Forum that the appearance of the new economy led to the omission of GDP scale and the underestimation of growth rate. This paper discusses why the "new economy" will cause GDP underestimation:

The existing industry classification can not reflect the development of new economy.

From the perspective of accounting classification, service industry accounting is divided into six industry data, including transportation and warehousing, wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, finance, real estate and other services. The top five are traditional industries. The new economic industries such as education, culture, medical care and information services, which represent the direction of transformation, are not accounted for separately.

Accounting methods tend to underestimate the added value of service industry.

At present, the added value of information services, culture and sports, education, medical care and other industries is mainly calculated by tax amount, number of personnel and wages, which is easily underestimated. There are two main reasons: first, because the statistical investigation system of service industry is not as perfect as that of industry, the service value (tax) of many small enterprises and individuals in service industry is easily overlooked. Second, under the current system of our country, the wages of medical and educational workers are not marketized, so it is easy to underestimate the added value through the increase of wages.

What will be the impact of the change in statistical methods?

First, the impact on the future GDP growth rate. If the growth rate of the new part after the expansion of the statistical scope is higher than the original GDP growth rate, it will have a certain pulling effect on the future GDP growth rate. If the new economy is independently accounted for or the accounting methods are reformed, the future GDP growth rate will be improved.

Second, the impact on GDP stock and historical growth rate. If the reform of accounting methods in the new economy industry is completed in the future, it is possible to increase the GDP stock and growth rate in recent years after retrospective adjustment. This means that the accumulated GDP stock of 20 15 has increased, and the requirements for future growth rate to achieve the goal of doubling GDP can also be reduced.

2065438+On July 2, 2006, Xu Xianchun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out at the 10th China Economic Growth and Cycle Forum that the new economy has played an important role in promoting the development of the world economy, but it has also brought severe challenges to government statistics. The emergence of new economy has caused the omission of GDP scale and the underestimation of growth rate. This paper discusses why the "new economy" will cause GDP underestimation:

The "new economy" itself has no clear economic or statistical definition, and can generally be understood as high-tech industries in the secondary industry (such as electronic communication computers) and some emerging service industries in the tertiary industry (such as environmental protection, medical care, entertainment, etc.). ). At present, China has a perfect statistical declaration system for industrial enterprises, and there are relatively few cases of underreporting and omission. The underestimation of the "new economy" is mainly concentrated in the service industry of the tertiary industry.

The existing industry classification can not reflect the development trend of the new economy.

From 20 12, the proportion of the tertiary industry in China's GDP exceeds that of the secondary industry for the first time (the tertiary industry is the service industry, and the two are equivalent and synonymous). The future economic transformation is inevitable, and the service industry will definitely become the main driving force for China's economic growth under the new normal.

However, the current industry classification of GDP accounting cannot reflect the development trend of new economy. In the current quarterly GDP accounting data, in addition to the total growth data, the tertiary industry also includes the growth data of transportation, warehousing and postal services, wholesale and retail services, accommodation and catering services, financial services, real estate and other service industries.

From this, we can find that among the six categories of service industries, except for "other service industries", there are actually five categories that are traditional industries. Education, culture, medical care, sports and information services that can represent the direction of future transformation are not accounted for separately, but are all included in "other service industries".