Development prospect of poultry breeding industry

Analysis on the Development Prospect of Poultry Breeding Industry in China

Comprehensive report of the through train for agriculture, countryside and farmers: The chicken market has been in a downturn since May 2008, and it has been two years now. In 2008, we didn't feel the crisis coming. Everyone thought it was a normal adjustment of the industry and it would soon pass. So everyone still sings, dances and sings all their lives. At the beginning of 2009, a medium-sized poultry enterprise expanded and established a new company in the northwest. I didn't expect to die miserably, and the company and employees didn't take any of the 2 million cash. To make matters worse, all the backbones of the enterprise are disheartened and left despondently. For breeding and hatching, the spring of 2009 is particularly cruel and difficult. By June165438+1October, small feed factories and distributors began to close down, and the hatchery began to stop production on February 65438. 20 10 in March and April, more hatcheries were closed. Especially the hatchery with the scale of 6.5438+0-20 million. Some friends spit out all the profits in 2007, owed a lot of debts, sold houses, divorced and sold cars. A good friend, the sales manager of an excellent domestic poultry enterprise, called me one afternoon at the end of April and said, "If I can earn back 80% of the losses, I will quit the industry completely." I think I am too.

I think there are several reasons for the economic downturn:

1. Transitional expansion within the industry. Including the profiteering market in 2007, many farmers put all their profits into expanding chicken coops and equipment, such as me; Including many bosses who are engaged in other industries and have abundant funds to enter the aquaculture industry in pursuit of profits, such as Ding Lei of Netease; More importantly, many feed industries and food industries have expanded on a large scale in order to avoid the economic crisis, extend the industrial chain and control terminals, such as Liuhe, Shuanghui and Tai Sen.

2. The impact of the financial crisis. Mainly psychological.

3. Some industries in the domestic economic structure are out of control, which leads to the high cost of housing, medical treatment and schooling for domestic people. They feel uncertain and unrealistic about the future and dare not spend too much.

4. The industrialization demand of raw materials, especially corn, causes the rigid growth of breeding cost, which is irreversible and will exist for a long time.

The fact that supply exceeds demand already exists, and it is imperative for the industry to survive the fittest. At present, China's economy is in a transitional period, and its economic structure is being adjusted, which is not yet a complete market economy. In other words, the exit mechanism is not perfect, and redundant construction is inevitable, which is a vicious circle. 10 years, including the recent 1 1 and 12 years, no one laughed, only people cried and even burst into tears. Whispering is the boss who entered the aquaculture industry on the other side. The biggest feature of petty capitalists is speculation. 1 year does not make money for two years, and resolutely withdraws in the third year. They have invested a lot of money, and quitting won't hurt them. They were also the first to quit the industry. Because aquaculture also has the essence of aquaculture, only by grasping the essence of the industry can we gain a firm foothold in the industry. The essence of aquaculture in China can only be understood after several years of immersion and reflection. If the boss didn't get up from the aquaculture industry and didn't make friends with the farmers, it would be difficult to understand thoroughly. The hardest thing to quit is small businesses and farmers, whose assets are all on it. However, due to the expansion of monopoly enterprises, production will become more and more concentrated, and small enterprises and farmers will be at a disadvantage in market, capital, technology, management and utilization of national policies, and their competitiveness will become worse and worse. At present, the fully automatic henhouse with 65,438+10,000 chickens can be completed by only two skilled workers, and the advantages of farmers in the past are immediately gone.

I visited the live chicken market yesterday and called some friends all over the country. I found that the live chicken market withdrew from the central area of big cities, and gradually withdrew in small and medium-sized cities because of epidemic prevention and health. The market space has been greatly compressed. The loss of main consumption sources will make the sales of live chickens in trouble. The main sales market of yellow feather broilers is live chicken market. The gradual disappearance of the market is a very realistic and severe problem for yellow-feather broilers. Driven by leading enterprises, the yellow feather broiler industry must carry out nationwide influential publicity and guidance in the direction of the whole industry. It is the yellow feather broiler industry that embarks on the slaughter line, cold chain production, establishes industry barriers, implements differentiation strategy, and highlights the strategy of high quality and good price. Only in this way, can the industry develop and grow, and the precious local resource varieties in China will not be strangled in infancy by foreign varieties. Although Jiangnan is still consuming live chickens, it will eventually change to industrialization.

In recent years, with the gradual transformation from semi-industrialization to industrialization in China, the white feather broiler industry will have more room for development, and the number of farmers will show an inverted "V" curve. I think that around 2020, after China basically completes the industrial economic transformation, the number of free-range households will gradually decrease or even disappear. It will form a large-scale, intensive and monopolistic industry situation. By then, the quality and income of personnel engaged in aquaculture have been greatly improved.

At present, the biggest problem of white feather broilers is "drug residue". Environment and management are the most fundamental solutions. But the competition is so fierce that survival is a problem. How can there be enough money, thought and energy to invest? The density is getting bigger and bigger, the environment is getting worse and worse, epidemics are becoming more and more frequent, the market is getting more and more depressed, and the benefits are getting worse and worse, which is a vicious circle. This is largely due to the national policy guidance, the supervision of animal husbandry disease control management institutions, and the large-scale expansion of leading enterprises. In fact, raising chickens is a very important link in the food industry, which is related to the national economy and people's livelihood. Like other industries, a certain access system should be established. For example, the regional breeding density exceeds the standard limit, the breeding facilities and environmental protection facilities system, and the staff training system. Guide farmers to embark on the road of scientific and healthy breeding, and prevent blind entry into the industry from leading to disorderly and vicious competition in the industry. However, this situation will only change after the country makes up its mind or something serious happens. Among the current broiler breeding varieties, 8 17 is a variety with China characteristics. I think there is a lot of room for development in the present 5- 10 years. If a group of outstanding leading enterprises focus on, steadily and actively lead the people to do it, they can completely divide the market and profit from the white feather broiler market. The premise is that there is a professional breeding company to carry out serious breeding, and white dysentery detection is the most basic. Adopting the mode of "company+farmer" to promote, produce pollution-free broilers, slaughter and seize school canteens, large factory canteens, small and medium-sized city markets, township dried vegetable shops and rural weddings and funerals markets. At present, the market industrialization of 8 17 is clearer than that of yellow-feather broilers, but the characteristics that large enterprises can't afford it are still obvious.

There are not many "company+farmer" models for laying hens, but the free-range farmers of laying hens are definitely the first to quit this industry. After 5- 10 years, it is difficult to sell eggs without "pollution-free certification" in the market. Nowadays, many super-large feed enterprises have set foot in the laying hen breeding industry, and they are going upstream. Many chicken farms with 200,000-200,000 feathers have been built nationwide this year. One market is worth hundreds of farmers, and facilities management is in step with the international situation. Not to mention green certification and pollution-free certification, the supermarket terminal is open again, and it is difficult for farmers to compete. Relevant small feed factories, veterinary drug factories, feed distributors and veterinary drug vaccine distributors must be transformed into broilers, otherwise it will be difficult to support their families. At present, eggs sold in super-large egg farms are sold at a loss and branded. It is normal to lose millions or tens of millions a year. When reporting at the end of the year, the boss also praised: our market share has increased. Can free-range households afford it? This year, the national average of corn has exceeded 1 yuan, breaking through the bottom line of many farmers' hearts. 10 There will be many empty henhouses in the second half of the year. 10 is a threshold for laying hens. Some people may say that without chicken farmers, the price of eggs will rise. Wrong. There are fewer chicken farmers, but the absolute amount of farming has increased. At the beginning of May this year, Sun Hao, who met in Shandong, said: "20 10, the total number of parents in Yukou will increase by 20% this year."

Appendix 1: Chicken farmers only get a profit of 1/4 under inflation.

Chicken and eggs are two indispensable foods in Shanghai's food basket. In the past six months, the prices of chicken and eggs in Shanghai market have skyrocketed, and there is a tendency to continue to rise. "I'm afraid I can't even afford eggs in the future!" -This has become a concern of many people. What is the reason behind the huge increase? Whose pocket is the profit behind the price increase?

The purchase price of eggs is increased by 1-2 yuan per case.

In the midst of a rising voice, the prices of chicken and eggs are particularly interesting. In the past six months, the prices of chickens and eggs in Shanghai have been rising all the way. - Z' T8 f4 E$ f3 W6？ ; G9 H

According to a boss who has been engaged in the wholesale of live chickens and frozen chickens for a long time, the wholesale price of "Shangnongpi" chickens has increased by 10%-25% on average in the past six months. The price of laying hens rose by about 50%, the biggest increase; Black-bone chicken 6.8 yuan/kg half a year ago, now 7.5 yuan/kg, the smallest increase 10%. In addition, Sanhuang Chicken has also increased from 5 yuan/kg six months ago to 6 yuan/kg at present.

In the Changqiao food market in Xuhui District, the retail price of grass eggs was 7.5 yuan per catty six months ago, and now it is 8.5 yuan per catty; Half a year ago, the wholesale price of hybrid eggs was 3.8 yuan/kg, but now it is 5 yuan/kg.

"These days, the purchase price of eggs is still rising at the rate of 1-2 yuan per box. It seems that the retail price of eggs may rise further. " The stall owner of egg retail in Changqiao vegetable market complained.

Chicken farmers can only make a profit 1/4.

Ben Chengming, a chicken farmer, stood in his henhouse and said happily, "The market is good recently. He can earn up to 20 thousand yuan a month." Ben Chengming, who has raised more than 6,000 chickens in Hai 'an County, Jiangsu Province, is not a big family. Ben Chengming has been raising chickens for 0/4 years, and now he is catching up with the historical peak of egg purchase price.

In Qunyi Village, Dagong Town, Hai 'an County, Ben Chengming has repeatedly said that he is very lucky. The growth cycle of hens raised by Ben Chengming is about 1 year. Chickens began to lay eggs after 5 months of growth, followed by 3 months of high yield. In the last few months, hens tend to eat more and lay fewer eggs. The profit of one year basically depends on the egg market during the peak period of laying eggs for three months. Compared with half a year ago, the egg price of Ben Chengming's family has risen from 3 yuan to 4 yuan 2 cents per catty, which is undoubtedly a golden opportunity for his farm. At the peak, he produces 550 kilograms of eggs every day.

Although the eggs sold well, Ben Chengming refused to admit that he was the biggest beneficiary. "If these eggs are finally sold to the market and earn 100 yuan, I can only take 25 yuan at most." Ben Cheng Ming calculated an account. Compared with six months ago, he spends more money on feed every day than 200 yuan. Although the price is high, the profit calculated by combining the cost is similar to that of half a year ago.

Like Ben Chengming, eggs produced by chicken farmers in Dagong Town and even Hai 'an County are basically purchased by large foreign enterprises and then sold to big cities such as Shanghai and Nanjing. In Ben Chengming's view, there are two reasons for the increase in egg prices. One is the sharp rise in feed costs. The other is that when summer comes, the output of eggs will be reduced to a certain extent, and the risk of heat death of laying hens will increase. "Chicken farmers can only passively accept market conditions. As long as they are basically suitable, we will sell them.

Broilers will definitely lose money.

The reporter visited several villages in Dagong Town for a day and failed to find a farmer or enterprise specializing in broiler breeding. According to local people, individual broiler farmers in Hai 'an have completely disappeared after the bird flu storm at the end of 2008. Lao Liu, who is nearly 60 years old, used to be one of the few broiler farmers. He told reporters categorically: "Don't look at the current market, raising broilers will definitely lose money!"

"Broiler production cycle is short. White varieties can be raised for 40 days and yellow varieties can be sold for 60 days. " Although the cycle is much shorter than that of laying hens, the risk of broiler breeding is higher. "The price of chicken is very unstable, not much better than eggs. At the end of a cycle, you must sell it, otherwise the henhouse will definitely lose more if it is empty.

Compared with half a year ago, the purchase price of local broilers has risen from 3.5 yuan to 6.3 yuan. "Chickens are not specialized broilers, and most of them are hens that will not lay eggs after elimination." Lao Liu doesn't regret giving up broiler breeding at all. "Broilers eat different feed than laying hens, which is much more expensive. The price of chicken changes greatly, and the turnover time is only a few days. Laying hens are eliminated and sold as broilers, which can wait for several months at most.

In Lao Liu's view, laying hens have a certain impact on broiler breeding. "If several large laying hens arrive at the elimination period and the chickens are listed for sale, the purchase price will come down immediately.

The rise of all parties has boosted the rise of laying hens.

"I'm afraid it won't last long, and the price is so high. We also feel a bit abnormal. " Chicken farmer Ben Chengming is happy with the current market, but he is also worried that the price of eggs will plummet one day.

"The number of chickens raised in Dagong Town may be only one-third less than before." Qiu Zhijian, who has been doing feed business in Dagong town for more than ten years, said that due to rising costs and increased risks, there have been a lot fewer chicken farmers in the last two years, leaving only some large investors to continue to do it. "In the past six months, feed has risen sharply. If the price of eggs is not high, no one will do it. "

Qiu Zhijian is mainly engaged in the business of soybean meal, which is the most important component in chicken feed except corn, accounting for about 25%. "The main raw material of soybean meal is imported genetically modified soybeans. Compared with half a year ago, the price of one ton of imported soybeans rose from 374 yuan to 473 yuan. " After processing, the price of 70kg soybean meal per package has risen from 2 10 yuan half a year ago to 260 yuan. "Soybean meal is rising, and corn is also rising. Can chickens and eggs be cheap? "

Qiu Zhijian said helplessly that the price increase of imported soybeans involves foreign trade issues, and he can only complain. "Take Nantong as an example. These three soybean processing plants are all foreign-funded enterprises. Compared with half a year ago, a ton of soybeans rose by 100 yuan, and their prices soared after processing, and their profits were several hundred yuan more than before the price increase.