In 20 18, the sales of new energy increased sharply, but the total sales of automobiles were not optimistic. Where is the drop?

20 18 analysis and forecast of production, marketing and development prospect of China automobile industry: in 20 19, the market sales will reach 28 1000000 vehicles, and the dust of automobile production and marketing in China will be settled in 20 18.

On June 5, 2009, 2065438 announced that the production and sales of automobiles were 27.809 million and 2808 1 10,000 respectively, ranking first in the world in 10. In terms of domestic brands, SAIC, Geely and Changan rank among the top three.

According to the statistical data of "Analysis Report on Demand Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning of China's Automobile Manufacturing Industry" issued by Prospective Industry Research Institute, in 20 18, China's automobile production and sales reached 27,809,200 and 28,080,600 respectively, down by 4. 16% and 2.76% year-on-year. The average annual growth rate is -2.8%, which is lower than the level predicted by China Automobile Association at the beginning of the year.

From the data of sales volume and growth rate over the years, after China's automobile sales reached 28.03 million in 20 16, the growth rate continued to fall in 20 17 and 20 18, and the sales volume in 20 18 showed negative growth for the first time since 190.

Statistics and growth of automobile sales in China from 20 10 to 20 18.

Data source: compiled by Prospective Industry Research Institute.

As for the reasons for the decline of the overall market of 20 18, the report analyzes that the "stimulus" effect of the preferential tax policy for small-displacement vehicles of 1.6 liter and below has gradually weakened, the sales of used cars have spread to the new car market, the national six emission standards have been implemented ahead of schedule, the demand for low-end SUVs in cities below the third tier has weakened, the consumption upgrade has continued, and the low-end market has declined.

20 18, China automobile industry is facing great pressure. The growth rate of production and sales was lower than expected at the beginning of the year, and the growth rate of major economic indicators in the industry slowed down. On the one hand, it is the impact of the comprehensive withdrawal of the preferential purchase tax policy; On the other hand, due to macroeconomic growth and slowing consumer confidence, it still faces great pressure in the short term.

At present, China's automobile industry is still in the popularization period, and there is a large room for growth. The automobile industry has entered the growth stage of brand upward and high-quality development.

In this context, the sales of passenger cars in China declined. According to the report data, the production and sales of passenger cars in China in 20 18 were 23,529,400 and 23,709,800 respectively, down by 5. 15% and 4.08% year-on-year.

In terms of vehicle types, the sales of cars, SUVs and MPVs all decreased year-on-year, among which the sales of cars were 1 1527800, down 2.7% year-on-year; Previously, the growth rate of SUV, as the main driving force of the automobile market, further slowed down, with annual sales of 9,994,700 vehicles, down 2.52% year-on-year; MPV declined the most, with sales of1734,600 vehicles, down 16.22% year-on-year.

The report data analysis shows that the decline of MPV market is mainly affected by SUV, and the trend of automobile consumption in third-and sixth-tier cities turning to self-owned brand SUVs and choosing mid-to high-end MPVs is becoming more and more obvious. In MPV market, A0 MPV has the largest cumulative decline in the whole year, with a cumulative decline of 30%; A-class MPV and B-class MPV decreased by 1 1% and 4% respectively, while C-class MPV increased slightly by 1%.

In contrast to the passenger car market, the sales volume of the commercial vehicle market has increased. The data shows that in 20 18, the production and sales of commercial vehicles in China were 4,279,800 and 4,370,800 respectively, up by 1.69% and 5.05% year-on-year.

20 18, the new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly.

Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the market of new energy vehicles in China is growing rapidly. From 2065438 to 2008, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was 1256200, up by 6 1.74% year-on-year. Among them, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 983,700, up 50.83% year-on-year, and the sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 270,900, up 1 17.98% year-on-year. Plug-in hybrid vehicles can alleviate the anxiety of cruising range and power performance, and the change of subsidy policy is normal.

20 13-20 18 sales statistics and growth of new energy vehicles in China

Data source: compiled by Prospective Industry Research Institute.

Fuel cell vehicles cannot be popularized on a large scale.

In 20 18, the sales volume of fuel cell vehicles in China was 1527. Sales mainly come from the promotion of demonstration projects. Compared with pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, fuel cell vehicles do have great advantages. However, judging from the current technical reserves of fuel cells in China, fuel cell vehicles cannot be popularized on a large scale.

Automobile exports grew rapidly year-on-year

In 20 18, automobile exports 104 10000 vehicles increased by 16.8% year-on-year, which continued to show a rapid growth trend and the growth rate slowed down. Among them, 758,000 passenger cars were exported, a year-on-year increase of18.5%; The number of commercial vehicles exported was 283,000, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. Except for the fourth quarter, the monthly export volume of automobiles was higher than that of the previous year.

Sales Forecast of China Automobile Industry in 20 19

It is predicted that the sales volume of China automobile market in 20 19 will be about 28 1 10,000 vehicles, which is basically the same as that in 20 18. Among them, passenger cars are expected to sell about 23.7 million vehicles, basically the same as in 20 18, and commercial vehicles are expected to sell about 4.4 million vehicles, up about 1% year-on-year. After balancing the import and export of vehicles in 20 19, the annual market demand was 28.2 million vehicles. New energy vehicles are expected to sell 6.5438+0.6 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 30%.

China automobile market has entered the stock era from the incremental era. In this context, China brands will face more intense market challenges this year, and the competition between brands will be product technology and comprehensive strength. According to the report data of Prospective Industry Research Institute, the market share of China brand passenger cars was 42.09% in 20 18, down 1.79% year-on-year.