Beef cattle breeding and development prospects?

The current situation and development prospects of beef cattle farming

1, beef cattle inventory is on the rise

From a long time line, China's beef cattle breeding industry to a large cycle for the cycle, with 2013 as the demarcation line, the stockpile, the output, beef production and so on appeared to fall first and then rise trend.

In recent years, China's beef cattle production has risen steadily, and domestic beef production in 2020 was 6,724,500 tons, an increase of 0.77% over 2019, with an average annual growth of 0.68% in the past decade. The overall level of scale and the amount of cattle slaughtered have both increased. The annual output of beef cattle in China increased from 41.899 million head in 2013 to 46.5645 million head in 2020, an increase of 11.13%, with an average annual growth rate of 1.0%. China's beef cattle stockpile fluctuates but is generally on an upward trend. By the end of 2020, China's beef cattle inventory was 95,620,600 head, an increase of 4.64% compared with 2019.

2, regional development is relatively concentrated

From the overall layout of the industry, China's beef cattle production is mainly concentrated in the Central Plains (Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Anhui), the Northeast (Jilin, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia), the Southwest (Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi) and the Northwest (Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi) regions, the four major regions of the country's beef production accounted for about 85% of the total production. Beef industry in various regions are making full use of regional advantages to take the characteristic development path: the Central Plains region vigorously develop standardized scale breeding, focus on breed improvement, improve crop straw utilization rate; Northeast region focus on giving play to the advantages of rich feed resources, the development of intensive breeding, and bigger dragon-head enterprises; nine provinces and regions in the western part of the pastoral areas to raise breeding cows, semi-agricultural and semi-pastoral areas to promote specialized fattening, while the agricultural areas mainly to cultivate the development of standardized scale fattening. Agricultural areas are mainly to cultivate the development of standardized scale breeding and slaughtering and processing in one of the large-scale leading enterprises.

3, beef demand, price trend fluctuations

With China's population growth, increased income and the pace of urbanization accelerated, China's beef consumption from the original ethnic minorities, regional, seasonal consumption gradually transformed into universal, national and year-round consumption. 2020, China's beef consumption of 8.9 million tons, second only to the United States; 2019 National per capita beef consumption reached 5.95kg, an increase of 11.01% over 2018, with an average annual growth rate of about 6.87%. Domestic beef supply exceeds demand, and the price is running at a high level; the national average beef price in 2020 will be 72.99 yuan/kg, up 14.39% from 2019.

The national average price of live cattle showed a trend of rising and then falling, from 17.8 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to about 18 yuan/kg to 17.5 yuan, a decrease of 2.3%. The lower market price is mainly due to the serious impact of import trade and smuggling activities. It seems that, with the opening of the domestic market, the situation of beef to maintain high prices for a long time will be broken. At present, China's per capita consumption of beef is less than half of the world average (10kg), the future supply and demand gap will be further widened. According to China's population and economic development trends, the next five years China's annual beef consumption will exceed 10 million tons.

4, import and export trade deficit

China's total beef production and imports have increased year by year, and exports have decreased year by year, objectively reflecting the strong demand for domestic beef, but also by the original net exporter of China is gradually becoming a net importer.

5, the development prospects

According to expert forecasts, the future of a longer period of time, the domestic beef market will remain in a situation of oversupply; beef prices will rise; beef and pork and poultry price difference will widen; different qualities of beef cattle between the price difference between the widening; beef cattle industry is about to usher in a period of adjustment; specialized, large-scale production and operation of the main body of beef cattle production; the accelerated process of good breeding.