The overall situation of the national economy in the first half of the year is

First, the new situation and new characteristics of economic operation in the first half of the year

Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of domestic demand and external demand has slowed down, production activities have decreased, the utilization rate of production capacity has been insufficient, and economic operation has continued to decline, resulting in some new situations and new features worthy of attention.

Short-term fluctuations in exports.

In the first half of the year, the export growth rate not only dropped significantly, but also fluctuated greatly. In June, the negative growth of exports reached 18.4% in February, dropped to 4.9% in April, and rose again in May and June, which is a rare phenomenon in recent years. In addition to seasonal factors such as Spring Festival, Labor Day and Dragon Boat Festival, there are the following reasons: European economy fluctuates violently, the international economic recovery process is tortuous, the market expectation is unstable, and China's exports tend to be short, flat and fast, which leads to ups and downs in export growth to some extent; The export of photovoltaics, fertilizers and new electronic products is affected by special factors such as the "double opposition" in the United States and the pace of market launch, which fluctuates greatly. In addition, China's economic development has become an important basis for the outside world to judge the global economy and the trend of commodity prices. The contraction of domestic demand and the decline of import growth also indirectly reduced the international market demand for China's export products.

(2) Enterprises' destocking and deleveraging coexist.

Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of industrial added value, output of major industrial products and power generation at the production end has generally exceeded the growth rate of investment, consumption and export. The deviation between the production end and the demand end is mainly due to the pessimistic expectation of future economic growth and price, the decrease of raw material inventory and finished product inventory, and the decrease of capacity utilization. After the reserve ratio and deposit and loan interest rates were lowered, the monetary conditions improved and the market interest rate continued to decline, but the effective demand for credit was insufficient. Among the new loans, the proportion of medium and long-term loans is significantly lower than the historical average, and the asset-liability ratio of enterprises has also declined, indicating that enterprises are not willing to invest, and deleveraging and destocking coexist.

(3) Overcapacity is prominent and economic benefits are declining.

In traditional industries, overcapacity has expanded from industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement and automobile to industries such as coke, calcium carbide, ferroalloy, copper smelting, textile and chemical fiber. In terms of emerging industries, due to the adoption of various stimulus policies in various fields to promote investment and the rapid expansion of production capacity, some emerging industries, such as carbon fiber, wind power, polysilicon, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, etc. , have experienced overcapacity. Low-level homogeneous competition and price war lead to a sharp decline in corporate profits, and the business model has obvious "speed-benefit" characteristics. From June to May, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises nationwide decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, among which the state-owned enterprises decreased by10.4% year-on-year; The losses of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 78.2% and 23. 1% year-on-year.

(D) Regional economic operation is clearly differentiated.

From June to June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in the eastern, northeastern, central and western regions increased by 9.7%, 10.6%, 15. 1% and 15.5% respectively. The growth rate in the east is the slowest, and its pulling effect on the overall economy is obviously weakened; The growth rate of the central region has been declining, and it has lagged behind the western region. Judging from the recent symposium on economic situation of directors of research centers in various provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, the economic operation and development trend in different regions have obviously differentiated. In areas where export-oriented industries are concentrated, industrial production has fallen sharply due to the slowdown in export growth; In the provinces with relatively high resource-based industries and heavy chemical industries, the economic growth rate and efficiency have dropped significantly; Areas with concentrated industrial transfer have strong economic vitality; Areas with rapid progress in industrial transformation and upgrading, although facing certain difficulties, are still affordable and have optimistic prospects.

(5) There are new changes in the real estate market, and house prices in some cities may rebound.

From a national perspective, the growth rate of newly started housing area is higher than that of commercial housing sales area for 25 consecutive months, and the growth rate of real estate development investment is higher than that of real estate development enterprises for 20 consecutive months. It is expected that the national real estate market will continue to show a downward trend. But there have been some new situations recently. In June, land prices and house prices in many cities rose. The reduction of loan interest rate not only reduces the cost of buying a house, but also changes the house price expectation to some extent. With the obvious rebound of transaction volume in some hot cities such as Beijing, the problem of insufficient selling area has gradually become prominent, and the subsequent supply has declined, so the risk of house price rebound cannot be ignored.

(VI) Employment constraints have eased, and fiscal and financial risk constraints have increased.

Employment and inflation are two important stress test indicators in macro-control, and the obvious deterioration of employment situation often becomes the basis for adjusting macro-policies. In this protracted callback process, the employment pressure is still not prominent. The unemployment rate surveyed by the National Bureau of Statistics has not deteriorated, and a large number of employees have not been dismissed in the actual survey. The constraint of employment on economic growth has eased, which reflects the changes in the relationship between supply and demand of labor force in China to some extent. However, it should be noted that the employment index is a lagging indicator, which is relatively slow to reflect. If the growth rate drops too fast in the short term, at least structural employment pressure will still appear. On the other hand, risks in real estate market, local government debt, bank asset quality and enterprise capital chain. Has begun to appear. The decline in economic growth has increased the vulnerability of these risk points (links), which may lead to local or even systemic financial risks.

The above-mentioned new situations and new features fully reflect the complexity and uncertainty of China's current economic operation. It is particularly noteworthy that, globally, the EU is the largest economy and China is an important source of economic growth. Its economic recession and slowdown have led to more complex and diverse internal and external economic transmission channels. On the whole, China's economic operation showed signs of initial stabilization in the first half of the year, and the risk of a sharp decline in the short term was significantly reduced. With the strengthening of demand constraints, the acceleration of industrial transformation and upgrading, mergers and acquisitions, and the elimination of the fittest, structural adjustment will make progress.

Second, the stability of economic operation is expected to increase in the second half of the year.

In the second half of the year, the euro zone economy is in a state of mild recession, the economies of the United States and Japan recover moderately, the downward trend of emerging economies slows down, and China's export growth will pick up; With the further emergence of policy effects, the stability of economic operation is expected to be enhanced.

(1) The euro zone economy is in a mild recession, and the United States and Japan are expected to recover moderately.

The European debt crisis may repeat itself, but it will not cause global risks in the short term. The internal firewall of the EU has not been effectively established, and any negative news may trigger market fluctuations, and the European debt crisis may repeat itself many times. Recently, the European Central Bank and the rescue fund have taken a series of rescue actions, which will have a positive effect on stabilizing the financial market and alleviating the debt crisis. The disintegration of the euro is not in the interests of the euro zone countries. The crisis will force all parties to make concessions and cooperate, and there will be no global systemic risks in the short term. At the same time, we should see that the development of the euro zone is unbalanced and needs deep structural adjustment and system reform; Establishing financial union and even reaching political union to a certain extent is more complicated and lasting. It is predicted that the euro zone economy will be in a mild recession in 20 12 years.

The economies of the United States and Japan maintained a moderate recovery. In June, the unemployment rate and labor participation rate in the United States were the same as in May, and the employment situation did not deteriorate. In June, the consumer confidence index in Michigan was 74. 1, reaching a higher level since 2008. The rebound trend of the real estate market has been basically established. In April, the newly started private houses increased by 26.5% year-on-year, the sales inventory of existing houses decreased for 14 months, and the median price increased by 4.8% year-on-year. According to historical experience, the macro-policy response in American election year is more timely and sensitive, and monetary policy still has room for stimulation. The effect of post-disaster reconstruction in Japan continued to show, with GDP increasing by 2.8% in the first quarter. In May, the actual expenditure of residents increased by 4%, and the construction of new houses was obviously accelerated. Although the export growth has been weak recently and the PMI index has also dropped, the overall growth trend has not changed moderately.

The downward trend of emerging economies is expected to slow down. Among the major emerging economies, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 5.6% in India, 0.75% in Brazil, 4.9% in Russia and 5.2% in Turkey, and all countries except Russia slowed down significantly. If the international economy does not deteriorate, commodity prices will gradually stabilize, especially with the improvement of China's economic operation, the downward trend of emerging economies is expected to slow down. However, we need to pay close attention to the "twin deficits", the sharp economic downturn and its subsequent impact.

In the first six months, China's import and export increased by 9.2% and 6.7% respectively, which was 14.8 and 2 1 percentage point lower than the same period of last year. The order turnover of Canton Fair was US$ 36.03 billion, down 2.3% year-on-year; The annual export growth rate dropped significantly. At the same time, we should also see that the growth rate of China's major trade destinations has declined, but it is still higher than the growth rate of its total imports, indicating that the relative competitiveness of China's exports has not deteriorated under the background of downward global demand; In the proportion of exports, it has increased to the United States, Japan and ASEAN; With the decline of import price index, China's terms of trade have improved; The expectation of exchange rate appreciation is significantly reduced, which is also conducive to stabilizing exports. Considering the effects of various "stable export" policies in the first half of the year and the low base after August last year, the export growth in the second half of the year will be better than that in the first half. It is estimated that the annual export growth can reach the expected target of 10%, the import growth rate is slightly lower than that of exports, and the contribution of net exports to economic growth has turned from negative to positive.

(b) Domestic demand growth has stabilized, and investment remains the pillar of stability.

The growth of household consumption and government consumption is generally stable. We will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy, and the total government consumption will maintain rapid growth. Affected by the decline in the growth rate of household appliances, automobiles and petroleum products, the growth rate of household consumption declined slightly. However, considering the decline in prices and the increase in residents' income, as well as the implementation of the policy of encouraging consumption, the actual consumption growth rate is basically stable.

The key to the stability of domestic demand in the short term lies in investment. In the first six months, investment in fixed assets increased by 20.4% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points faster than that in May last year. Excluding the price factor, the actual growth in the second quarter was 0.4 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter. In terms of composition, manufacturing investment increased by 24.54%, with a slight increase of 0.07 percentage point, and the overall trend was stable; Investment in real estate development increased by 16.6%, down by 1.9 percentage points from the previous May, continuing the downward trend. Investment in infrastructure (including the production of electricity, heat, gas and water) increased by 8.2%, 3.6 percentage points faster than that in the previous May, and the rebound was obvious. In the second half of the year, due to high real estate inventory and tight funds for developers, the growth momentum of real estate investment is still insufficient. However, due to the current rebound in market sales and the supplementary role of affordable housing projects, the annual growth of real estate development investment can still reach 14%. Infrastructure investment will maintain an upward trend, which can make up for the decline of real estate investment to some extent. Considering the positive factors such as regional industrial transfer, replacement of labor by machines, and the effect of local government change, it is estimated that the annual growth of fixed assets investment will reach about 18%.

At present, economic operation still faces many uncertain factors, but positive factors are gradually accumulating. First of all, the growth rate of industrial added value initially stabilized, real estate sales rebounded, and the output growth rate of important industrial products such as automobiles increased significantly. Secondly, according to the cycle law of inventory adjustment of 38 ~ 40 months, this round of inventory adjustment is coming to an end. Third, there have been positive changes in the handling of the European debt crisis, the economies of the United States and Japan have maintained moderate recovery, the overall international economic situation has not deteriorated, and commodity prices are expected to stabilize gradually. In addition, China's recent policies such as reducing RRR, cutting interest rates and supporting private investment are gradually emerging, which will play a positive role in stabilizing growth. Generally speaking, the deviation between the demand side and the production side will be reduced. The DRC leading cycle index and synchronous cycle index compiled by the Economic Situation Analysis Group of our center continued to rise in June, and the "China economic clock" gradually moved from recession to recovery, giving the initial signal of macroeconomic stabilization and recovery.

Comprehensive judgment, with the further emergence of macro-policy effects, economic operation will initially stabilize and may rebound. The economic growth in the third and fourth quarters is expected to be slightly higher than that in the second quarter, and the annual GDP growth rate can reach 8% or slightly higher.

However, it must be noted that the foundation of economic stabilization is still not solid, and if there is an unexpected impact, the economy may still reproduce the downward trend.

Third, pay attention to the convergence of short-term and medium-and long-term policies in the transition period of growth stage

(1) Economic growth has gradually shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a medium-speed growth stage.

This round of sustained economic correction has gone beyond the usual business cycle, which is the result of the superposition of multiple cyclical factors and the decline of medium and long-term growth potential. In the short term, China is in the period of weakening the pulling effect of commercial destocking and economic stimulus plan, and it is also in the political cycle of general elections in major international economies and the domestic transition period. In the long run, the whole world is in a period of seeking new technologies and breakthroughs in new industries after the financial crisis, and the new technology cycle is still in its infancy, and global economic growth is slowing down as a whole. The interweaving of multiple cyclical forces makes the economic operation very complicated.

Economic growth is not only influenced by macroeconomic policies and short-term demand changes, but also depends on the potential growth level at a specific stage of development. In recent years, our center has carried out international experience research on medium and long-term economic growth. After World War II, the successful catching-up economies, such as Japan, South Korea and Germany, have experienced rapid growth for twenty or thirty years. When the per capita GDP reaches 1 1 1,000 international yuan (purchasing power parity), economic growth declines without exception, with a drop of more than 30%. Among them, Japan occurred in the early 1970s, South Korea in the middle and late 1990s, and Germany in the middle and late 1960s. Since the reform and opening up, China's economic growth path is close to or similar to these successful catch-up economies.

20 1 1 year, the per capita GDP of China is close to 9000 international yuan. Maintaining the current development trend, it will reach about 1 1000 international yuan in the next year or two. In addition, we also calculated the economic growth of the whole country and different types of regions, as well as the peak output of important industrial products such as electricity, automobiles and steel. The basic conclusion of the above research is that the economic growth of China will change from high-speed to medium-speed in the later period of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, and the potential growth rate will be by going up one flight of stairs, with a drop of about 30%.

Recently, some new changes in economic operation indicate that the transformation of China's economic growth stage may have begun.

First of all, the potential and space for infrastructure investment have been significantly reduced. Since 20 10, the growth of infrastructure investment has dropped significantly, and the proportion of infrastructure investment in fixed assets has dropped from nearly 30% in the past decade to about 20% at present. Second, the economic growth rate in the eastern developed regions dropped significantly. Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Beijing, Shanghai and other provinces and cities, the growth rate of industrial production and investment has been lower than the national average since last year, and the total economic output of these regions is close to half of the national economic output. The per capita GDP of these areas has reached the time window of declining growth rate, so it is logical to take the lead in realizing the transformation of growth stage. Third, the risks of local financing platforms and the real estate market have increased significantly. People's concerns about the return on investment in these areas are essentially concerns about their growth potential.

In addition, there is still much room for urbanization. However, due to the substantial increase in the base utility of China's economic scale, even if the urbanization rate is increased by about 1 percentage point every year, the pulling effect on economic growth is obviously reduced. All these may indicate that the potential economic growth rate of China has begun to decline, and this round of economic adjustment is different from the previous short-term adjustment. Even if there is a rebound in the second half of the year, the economic growth rate is unlikely and should not return to the original high growth track. In the transition period of the growth stage, it is more appropriate to keep the GDP growth rate at 7% ~ 8%. In fact, this speed is not low from a global perspective.

(2) Macro-control should avoid two tendencies.

The experience of Japan, South Korea and other countries shows that the arrival of the transition period in the stage of economic growth does not depend on people's will, and the choice of macroeconomic policies in this period is very important. In particular, we should be vigilant and try to avoid two tendencies: one is the tendency to try to return to the previous high growth track. For a long time, the government, enterprises, markets and society have adapted to or become accustomed to the macro environment of rapid growth, and it is difficult to accept the downward trend of growth in the short term. Once the growth rate drops, it is easy to ignore the fact that the potential growth rate drops and try to bring the economy back to a high growth track through policy stimulus. As a result, it will not only fail to restore high growth, but also push up inflation and asset prices, forming a bubble economy and causing greater risks. The second is the trend of letting the economy slide on its own. After entering the transition period of growth stage, because the original expectation has been broken, the new stable expectation has not yet been formed, and the uncertainty and fragility of economic operation have obviously increased. In the event of a big shock, there is likely to be a sharp decline or fluctuation in growth in the short term. If we don't pay enough attention to this feature, don't worry too much about the economic downturn, ignore that market players need to gradually adjust to the economic slowdown, and the policy response is weak, which may lead to systemic risks due to the short-term rapid decline in economic growth.

The transition period of economic growth is also a process in which market players gradually adjust their business models, and risks such as markets and systems are gradually exposed and repaired. The focus of short-term macro-policy is to deal with the cyclical fluctuations in the downward trend of the economy, not only to prevent excessive stimulus and make the economy bubble; It is also necessary to prevent the economy from falling sharply in the short term, and risks and problems suddenly erupt. Judging from the present situation, it is important to prevent the first tendency. Due to the long period of economic callback, it is necessary to prevent the risk of overweight and excessive stimulus in the process of gradual relaxation of policies.

At the same time, the risk of a short-term sharp decline in economic operation also needs to be highly vigilant. Starting from 1996, the four quarters with the lowest economic growth rate were 1998, the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, with an average GDP growth of 6.9%, fiscal revenue growth of 2.4%, zero tax revenue growth, negative profit growth of industrial enterprises of 34% and increased loss of 82.5%. It can be seen that when the economic growth rate drops to 7% or less, the loss surface and amount of enterprises will increase substantially, the pressure on fiscal revenue and expenditure will be significantly enhanced, and the foundation for economic stabilization will be fragile. Therefore, we should correctly understand the relationship between economic growth and structural adjustment, avoid opposing speed and structural adjustment, and ignore the transformation relationship between speed and benefit, speed and risk. The slowdown itself will force market players to adjust their structure. However, if the growth rate drops too fast in the short term, the economic relationship will be very tense and the risks will increase sharply, and the favorable opportunity for restructuring will be lost. Especially in the case that the speed-benefit-profit model has not fundamentally changed, it is obviously necessary to appropriately increase the speed of economic growth.

It should also be noted that the current downward trend of economic growth is also the result of limited optimal allocation of resources, and it is difficult to effectively release the growth potential within the framework of the existing institutional mechanisms. Therefore, short-term policies should be effectively linked with medium-and long-term policies, and efforts should be made to deepen institutional reform, release new institutional dividends and activate growth potential.

Four, "steady growth, risk prevention, structural adjustment" simultaneously, to promote a smooth transition in the growth stage.

At present, the economic operation shows signs of bottoming out, but the international and domestic support for recovery is still fragile. Macro-control should adhere to the general tone of "striving for progress while maintaining stability", pay equal attention to "stabilizing growth, preventing risks and adjusting the structure", conscientiously implement various policies and measures that have been introduced, actively plan and start mid-term reforms, and promote a smooth transition in the growth stage. Steady growth, the key point is to keep the economic growth rate in a reasonable range suitable for the transition of growth stage, and avoid two tendencies of excessive stimulation and excessive decline; Risk prevention focuses on stabilizing market expectations, preventing and defusing various risks exposed in the economic downturn, preventing the obvious rebound of housing prices in some hot cities, and preventing the risk of local financing platforms with poor asset quality from further increasing; The core of structural adjustment lies in turning the momentum, making great efforts to promote system reform and system innovation, actively promoting the reform-oriented supply policy, speeding up the reform of basic industries, breaking down obstacles to the optimal allocation of resources, stimulating the vitality of market players, releasing China's still considerable growth potential, promoting the smooth transition of growth stages, and enhancing the sustainability of economic and social development.

(1) Adhere to the sound tone of monetary policy and play a positive role in fiscal and taxation policies.

Moderately relax the administrative control measures such as loan quota and loan-to-deposit ratio, gradually cancel the control of loan scale, and actively promote the process of interest rate marketization. Track the changes in foreign exchange holdings, reduce the statutory deposit reserve ratio in a timely manner, and ensure the stability of bank liquidity. Support the reasonable growth of credit and implement a neutral housing credit policy. Take advantage of the expected increase in RMB depreciation to guide the two-way floating of the exchange rate and keep the exchange rate basically stable. Effectively avoid the impact of increased fiscal revenue and non-tax burden on the production and operation of enterprises. Promote accelerated depreciation and encourage enterprises to upgrade their technical equipment. We will adjust and improve the pilot program of "camp reform", increase tax reduction, reduce the business tax of producer services, and effectively reduce the tax burden. Appropriately increase assistance to low-income groups and families in need.

(2) Maintain real housing demand and prevent housing prices from rebounding in first-tier cities.

We will continue to strictly control unreasonable demand for housing such as speculation and investment. The purchase restriction policy cannot be relaxed and needs to be improved according to changes in the situation. When there are many misunderstandings about real estate regulation and control policies by mortgage interest rates, we should strengthen positive publicity, stabilize expectations, and guide the stable release of rigid and improved housing demand. The policy of down payment and reverse adjustment of interest rate is implemented, that is, the down payment ratio is appropriately increased when the loan interest rate is lowered, so that the payment ability of buyers will not change due to the change of interest rate policy, and the demand will not fluctuate greatly due to the change of payment ability in the short term. Efforts will be made to prevent housing prices from rebounding in some first-tier cities such as Beijing, increase the supply of land for commercial housing construction, increase housing supply, and improve the contradiction between supply and demand in the market.

(C) to maintain a reasonable growth in infrastructure investment

Comprehensively check the projects under construction of governments at all levels, and give financial support to projects that meet the requirements of economic and social development, help to enhance the stamina of economic development, and have excellent economic and social benefits. On the basis of full argumentation, increase the reserve work of major projects such as infrastructure, and improve the feasibility study according to priorities to prevent sudden shocks. Encourage financial institutions to classify and evaluate local financing platforms and provide necessary credit support for platforms with excellent assets and liabilities. Strengthen the long-term planning of land and resources and guide the construction of new cities and new districts. Scientific planning and layout of urban infrastructure construction projects, strengthen urban drainage system, underground pipe gallery system, subway and other infrastructure construction. While increasing the growth rate of infrastructure investment, we will effectively strengthen the debt risk management of local governments.

(4) Accelerate the reform of basic industries such as oil, railway, electric power and finance.

Appropriately relax the access restrictions in the field of petroleum exploration and development, and give priority to the exploration and development access of unconventional oil and gas resources such as marginal oil fields and shale gas. According to the idea of "shortening the price adjustment cycle and speeding up the price adjustment frequency", we will promote the reform of the pricing mechanism of refined oil products. Appropriately relax the restrictions on imported oil sources and strengthen the competition between oil refining and terminal wholesale and retail. Further relax the market access and operation management system reform of newly-built railways. Adjust the electricity price in time and reform the formation mechanism of electricity price as soon as possible. Explore the establishment of a provincial power trading platform and break down provincial barriers. Vigorously develop the corporate bond market, steadily develop interest rate derivatives, reform the stock issuance system, and improve the OTC market.

(5) Actively prepare the European debt crisis response plan.

Pay close attention to the evolution of the European debt crisis, dynamically assess the direct impact and impact on China's trade, capital flow and reserve gains and losses, and make necessary response plans through the indirect impact of international financial markets and confidence channels. Encourage enterprises to adjust their export structure, improve product quality and competitiveness, and expand markets outside the EU. Pay close attention to the abnormal situation in the Hong Kong market to prevent the exchange rate and price from fluctuating sharply due to the large withdrawal of funds, and may cause market panic. Take advantage of the sharp drop in the price of resource products in the international market and the sufficient foreign exchange reserves to increase strategic reserves and commercial reserves in a timely manner. Take advantage of the opportunity of low valuation and low entry threshold in the crisis to encourage China enterprises to enter the European market and actively acquire high-quality enterprises and assets in the euro zone.

(6) Supporting industrial upgrading and manufacturing development.

In combination with industrial upgrading, support policies such as technical transformation discount will be implemented to encourage enterprise equipment upgrading and manufacturing investment growth. Encourage industrial mergers and acquisitions, survival of the fittest, and support banks to issue merger and reorganization loans and enterprises to issue restructuring bonds.

Actively promote regional industrial transfer, focus on improving the software and hardware environment, improve industrial supporting capacity, and optimize industrial layout. Accelerate the implementation of the "package" measures to support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, implement policies to support the development of the real economy, prevent all kinds of virtual economy bubbles, and guide the flow of resource elements to the manufacturing industry and the real economy. Actively guide the upgrading of residents' consumption structure, improve housing and urban construction standards, and promote the construction of smart cities and low-carbon cities.