Will Tesla continue to be bullish after the traditional car companies start to make efforts?

The five questions selected this week are as follows

Question? 1

Fried garlic with meat: I want to ask Xia Shu a question. Japanese cars are popular in China, but I personally think some cars are very practical (mainly space utilization, product reputation and overall quality stability). It is sold in Japan or a large part of it is sold in Southeast Asian markets, such as Honda's FREED, STEPWAGEN, STREAM, Toyota's SIENTA, WISH, and Nissan's Serena? Why don't Japanese manufacturers introduce this compact MPV model into China market at the same time? And the domestic six-seater or small seven-seater cars, such as Song max, Auchan and GM6, which are hot in the domestic market in recent years? It seems to sell well, doesn't it? It's really the feeling that sometimes you can see grapes but you can't eat them.

A: Usually people who like cars will browse a lot of information about cars, hoping to see which models are available in countries with developed automobile manufacturing. And when you find that there are some popular local cars that are not available in China, you will naturally have doubts. The answer is usually simple and straightforward, that is, the manufacturers think that selling these cars in China will not generate enough economic benefits.

Generally, we will not be convinced by this answer, because you are from the perspective of car enthusiasts and consumers, while manufacturers are from the perspective of car manufacturers. One has to get the car he likes, and the other has to sell it to enough people to make money. So, just change your identity and think about it.

What manufacturers do every day is essentially business. It is always evaluating the market demand for its products and which demand is enough to make it profitable. Then choose the most profitable one. Manufacturers in all markets around the world are doing this, and eventually you will see that the products they sell in different markets are different. That is, the two-way mechanism of "manufacturers evolve products and markets choose products" that I said last week.

In addition, consumers mostly look at the problem from their own perspective, which is largely influenced by personal preferences. Manufacturers observe the "whole consumer" from the outside, which is commonly referred to as the market. This is bound to happen. A consumer found something he liked, but the manufacturer was not satisfied with it. It's hard to say who is right or wrong. Because the individual demand is not necessarily consistent with the overall demand, and the manufacturer's judgment on the market demand is not necessarily correct. However, from the perspective of probability, it is more likely that the manufacturer will judge correctly.

By the way, the Stream produced by Dongfeng Honda is Jed. The same car has different names in different markets, which is the favorite marketing method of Japanese manufacturers. On the other hand, Jed's business in China was not successful. This is also an example.

Question? 2

Hao: Teacher Xia, are Volvo's brand-new s60 and v60 the same platform, that is, the same chassis? Now the price of the new s60 is not cheap, almost equal to that of the imported v60. It is you. What is your choice?

A: The chassis is the same. This is the most common product derivative. I haven't found a Volvo that I personally want to own. However, I bought its relative-Ke Ling. Therefore, I still agree with Volvo's technology.

As for S60 and V60, I will choose V60 with some amorous feelings. Now is an era when people begin to seek style, that is, personal style. I used to have what others had. Now, I have to have what others have, but not exactly the same. I must be creative. The most impressive thing about Volvo is the station wagon. It is the embodiment of the Nordic way of life.

In addition, the station wagon is still a relatively rare thing in China. In fact, there is no essential difference from a car. Therefore, there is no uncertainty in technology, performance and quality, but the difference in body style and load capacity.

In the past, station wagons were restricted to places with poor public security, because it was easy to spy on the contents of the car and stimulate the desire to steal. Cars are more closed and safer. But now, with the development of monitoring technology, this problem has been solved. So I think there will be a trend of station wagon after SUV is boring. Not too big. After all, it's a bit unconventional. But that's the charm.

Question? three

Yellow monster key? Brand | Design: In fact, I have been thinking about why so many automobile brands should be founded, especially after the popularization of electric vehicles. Different product differences, such as different price range, car-making concept, design appearance, etc. Has "carved up" the consumer market. Of course, if everyone's preferences are different, there will naturally be more products, but to a certain extent, car companies connive at consumers and "force" consumers to have more ideas ... So a large number of car companies give up more core things to cater to these minority ideas ... Is this good or bad?

A: When new technologies rise, this is always the law. The so-called chaos in the world. The prince and the prince will be together. What kind of people would you rather have? From the beginning, a large number of competitors came to power. After the game, the loser left.

In recent years, the automobile has undergone two major "changes", leading to changes in the rules of the game. One is the emergence of China market, which makes the world market explode out of thin air, equivalent to the sum of the United States and Europe. The first is the global government intervention in electrification. I have never seen or heard of the government's artificial intervention in the consumer goods market on such a large scale. It will definitely have a great impact on the market.

The reason why it can be done is because the technological development can support it and the underlying demand just arises. The so-called bottom demand means that although most people don't buy electric cars, they also admit that they need to control carbon dioxide emissions. Government intervention is nothing more than using a force to pinch the needs of "people" and "individuals". This provides an opportunity for the new technology of electric vehicles, and heroes from all walks of life naturally gather here.

The telephone and the car were invented at about the same time. The experience is similar. From invention to landline, to mobile phone, to smart phone. The change here is also a few heroes at a time. As for your complaint about differentiation, I'm afraid anyone can put forward the opposite view. There is no need to argue about this.

Differentiation and homogenization are two sides of an organic whole, which are interdependent. It is precisely because of the homogeneity of the core that some differences are needed on the surface. Otherwise, it is difficult for brands to show their own characteristics. The current "chaos" is the natural state in the early stage of competition. As long as there is no other big change in the rules of the game, over time, new winning and losing seats will be divided up.

Question? four

Cold Fire: Although Tesla said that it feels great on electric vehicles, I always feel that Tesla's position will be suppressed after German manufacturers such as Audi Electric. Tesla's electric vehicles in China will be suppressed by domestic brands with the encouragement of national policies and the arrival of the fourth industrial revolution ~ Teacher Xia, do you feel it?

A: I don't have the ability to see what this trend will look like. In fact, there are various possibilities. Because people will improve according to experience and constantly take countermeasures to correct past deviations. Of course, there may be new deviations, which is the truth of evolution. Take the example of Tesla.

In the past few decades, there has always been such a situation: American creation, European mass production, and Japan making money. But now there is a new variable, which is China. It leads to a new form: American creation, mass production in China and American making money. For example, Apple used OEM production in China, which ensured its long-term excess profits and stopped transferring its competitive advantage to Europe and Japan. OEM in China can only earn an absolute small part of the profits, but it has cultivated the undisputed dominance of the supply chain in the world and laid the foundation for China's own future development.

If Tesla insists on American-made products, its fate will probably be overtaken by European and Japanese manufacturers, as you said, but when it came to China, it first obtained the license of sole proprietorship in China. It's hard to say what the result will be.

China has also gained new development opportunities and space in the field of electric vehicles. Traditional car companies in Japan and Europe are facing enormous challenges. A key reason is path dependence. Have retained a very mature local manufacturing system, on the one hand, powerful, on the other hand, bulky. When old products encounter new technologies, they change from stable unity to chaotic division, just like many dynasties in ancient China. Then many old enterprises are eliminated, and new enterprises and old enterprises that have survived and successfully innovated rebuild a new stable and unified state.

Of course, the existence of anti-monopoly law will not lead to absolute monopoly, but it will eventually form an oligopoly of a few powerful enterprises. Another example of the telephone. From landline to mobile phone to smart phone, how much innovation, how much confusion, how much elimination and how much reconstruction are still changing dramatically. However, Tesla, a company founded and expanded by innovation, is still very young. It is the founder and beneficiary of the new order and will not go out so easily.

However, companies like Volkswagen, Toyota and GM Ford are more dangerous. Because if they want to iterate, they must leave the old system in different ways, which is likely to be fatal. Imagine that if the internal combustion engine is eliminated, Tesla will be fine, and traditional automobile companies will not exist. If you don't want to be eliminated, you have to actively eliminate yourself. How to do this? This in itself is a big change that has no routine to follow. Even if time can provide a span of more than ten years, I am afraid it is difficult to reverse it.

Now let's see what the result of this iteration between electric vehicles and internal combustion engines will be, because as early as the beginning of the last century, electric vehicles have already challenged the internal combustion engines, and as a result, the internal combustion engines have won. What about this time? It seems that electric cars are very fierce, and diesel locomotives are a little senile. But after all, the internal combustion engine foundation is too deep. Therefore, it is still possible to resist for a long time, so if this will make the current electric vehicle enterprises unable to make profits for a long time, it will first trigger a wave of elimination among electric vehicle enterprises. This era is not a new victory over the old, but a melee. Everyone has a chance to succeed, and everyone has a chance to be out.

Question? five

Drifting away: Hello, Miss Xia! I go to work 60 kilometers every day, round trip 120 (including expressway 100 kilometers). I can install charging piles at home, and the company also has charging conditions. The coordinates are Henan. Choose Song Qin? Is DM better or Song Pro better? What about Ev? The price is the same, I wonder if the pure electric battery is very attenuated? Besides, how high is the cost of replacing the battery?

A: It seems that you are qualified to use pure electric vehicles. But there is an important condition that is not listed in the question, and that is how big the service life radius of your car is. Commuting is the most normal car scene, but the use of holidays may be the key. Because the demand for car purchase should be determined by the least commonly used but absolutely essential demand. That is, where is the outermost boundary of your indispensable needs.

Then see if the car you want to choose can cover this border. Domestic demand can certainly be met. The biggest problem of pure electric vehicles is that the radius is relatively limited. Because the battery life, charging time and charging facilities are not good enough.

The battery decay is not a big deal, because, in order to promote the consumption of electric vehicles, manufacturers provide long-term warranty for batteries, even lifetime warranty. In fact, few users can or accept the cost of replacing battery components themselves. So whoever can avoid this cost risk for users will tend to buy their electric cars.

I think it may be safer to plug in and use it in your situation.

If you have any thoughts and questions when browsing the articles published by Kicking Car Help WeChat official account, you can leave a message at the bottom of the article and write down your questions. We will collect all users' questions every week, and Mr. Xia Dong will choose five questions to answer. Welcome to participate.

In this issue, Xia Dong asked everyone: Who is sleepy while driving and who has the "treatment know-how"?

Last question: When do you think you should own your first car?

Wonderful message in the last issue:

@ Common Grass

The first car in life is of course the first time you need it. If there is no need to drive, you can not buy it at any time. This is the premise of buying a car. If there is demand, it depends on whether there are any models you like in the auto market. Without a favorite car, there is no way to start. If you have a car you like, it depends on whether the price is in line with your budget. It's no use liking to exceed the budget. This is what is often said. Finally, it depends on whether the price is affordable. Prices often change during the year, with high and low prices, and the price difference is relatively large. If you start at a high price, you will lose a little. So try to start with a reasonable and relatively low price in your heart. If the above conditions are met, you can place an order.

Ge

You should choose according to your financial ability when you get your driver's license. The car you buy for the first time only needs to match your economic ability. You don't need to consider the brand, style, power and other parameters. He can be imperfect or have regrets. Then, when you buy the second, third and nth car in your life, these tracks are the tracks of your life, and you can see your growth, personality, ideas, personality and aesthetics. ......

Mo

The first car, of course, is when it is needed and when it is financially capable. But this is not an absolute balance. I run a vegetable shop and need a steamed stuffed bun to pull vegetables every day. Although I have no money, I will buy a car. He is my tool, a tool to make money, but he can also take his children to kindergarten. I chose a stable job instead of taking the bus, saved money for several years, bought a car, and went out to soak in hot springs with my family on weekends. Different life, different car, different orientation, different happiness.

@ Guo

The purchase time of the first car depends on the purpose and economic conditions of buying a car. If you buy a car to improve your quality of life and happiness, you can buy it if you have enough money (whether it is full or loan), as long as you don't get into financial difficulties because of buying a car. If it is purely a production tool (pulling goods or socializing), it may be necessary to bite the bullet and buy it. I just have different expectations for myself or my career development. Some people grind their teeth early, while others grind their teeth late.

@ Wang Jinbo

The first car in life should be bought when economic conditions permit and life really needs to buy a car. In Japan and European and American countries, many young people don't want to buy a car, because their public transportation is very developed and cars are not necessary, so cars become less important. China's national conditions are still different, so we should learn from them. It is difficult to park and maintain cars now, and these factors should also be considered.

child labourer

The first car in life, I think it varies from person to person. Some people need to buy a car because of their work, and they have just moved from school to society. Maybe they have been working for a while because they need a car because of job changes. This car may just meet the basic requirements, and it will be replaced with a better or more suitable car when the economy allows. Some people may never buy a car if economic conditions permit. One of the reasons is that he (she) is afraid of driving, just because he (she) doesn't need to drive at home.

@ Li Yingming

Cars are tools, but they are also part of entertainment. I think buying a car for two years should have a certain economic foundation, and life is gradually on track. I have certain ideas about when to use the car, what I want to buy and what I can buy. It is logical to buy a car at this time, which is more in line with the habits of social life.

@ * hole

Personal feelings may be related to personal hobbies, family economic situation and life and work. For example, a friend who especially likes cars since he was a child must want to get on the bus as soon as possible to experience the fun of driving. The state stipulates that he 18 years old can get a driver's license to drive, and such people believe that they will buy a car as soon as they get a driver's license. Of course, this is also related to the family's economic situation. For friends with good family economic conditions, buying a car is not too much burden for themselves. They may buy their first car at the beginning of their social life, and they are about 20-23 years old. The vast majority of friends, maybe they also love cars, but they are short of money, so they will try their best to restrain their desires and wait until they have a certain economic strength before buying their first car in their lives. The age is about 2078. I will be 30 years old soon and haven't bought a car yet. I also like cars very much, pay attention to the news and knowledge of cars, and try my best to realize my dream of cars. So I want to say that when you have a car dream, you must work hard to realize it. Even if I am old enough, I may be late, but I will never be absent.

@ 中中中中中中中中中中? |JAKCOM？ (Czech) Stalne; Stalne (Sweden); (British) Si Tong

I think I should buy my first car when I am ready to meet my future mother-in-law. Other usage scenarios have alternatives.

@ Clark

Of course, the sooner you step into society, the better. I think it mainly depends on the current level of personal funds. As the saying goes, no matter how big your feet are, no matter how big your shoes are, don't drag yourself down for a car, and enjoy life actively and happily.

@ jinmantang

First of all, you must have money. Second, try to buy it before you get married, because no one will deprive you of your hobby. You can buy what you like freely and carefree, and no one will argue with you.

@ Fill in again

That depends on working and living conditions. Cars are tools: if there is no need for work, a person will not use them at any time (except car fans). If you have a family, especially children, you must have one. The price depends entirely on the income, and everything is bought for convenience and suitability (except car fans).

@ DDVP

I think the age of buying the first car in life should be when one's economic conditions permit, not by one's parents. I think it will become more and more urgent to buy a car with the development of time. Everyone should set a goal of what car to buy in his mind, so that life can have more pursuits. If you have a goal, you must work hard. When you work hard, you will get your own achievements. I feel a sense of accomplishment. Life needs such a sense of accomplishment to make more decisions in the future.

@ Lao Wang

I think you must buy it as long as you have a driver's license, the ability to get on the road and the economic conditions. Modern people's understanding of cars has become a necessity of life. Many people bought new cars and left them on the side of the road for months. I've seen a lot.

@ de

When to buy a car varies from person to person, so there is no need to force it. The key is to have a certain economic strength. Even if you use a second-hand car, you have to spend tens of thousands of dollars, and the car maintenance budget of thousands of dollars a year can't run away. Having said that, cars can really improve the quality of life. Cars are used for work and pleasure, so a family must have at least one car. In this case, you should buy as soon as economic conditions permit.

cool

The first car in my life, I will buy it after graduating from college, and I don't intend to buy it after continuing my studies, so I have a job. Even if you borrow money to buy a car, you can still pay it back yourself. Personally, I think a car is not only a means of transportation, but also a toy. I just joined the company, and now I plan to buy my first car. I'm more interested in lectra 03. After listening to teacher Xia's evaluation of Rick, I decided to eat.

Idle

First, you must have a driver's license; The second is affordability, including being able to afford it independently or with the help of parents. Although cars are consumer goods, they represent many things in the eyes of the secular. As long as the economic problems are solved, there will be demand, and there will be demand without demand.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.