How to deal with the investment of A-share extreme differentiation fund

How to deal with the investment of A-share extreme differentiation fund

Just when Maotai hit a new high and brought a number of big stocks such as China Merchants Bank to a new high, "I never expected: 3,000 points entered the market, but 3,500 points were deeply involved!" In this extreme "Mao bull market", how to obtain excess returns? Today, Bian Xiao will share with you how to deal with the extreme differentiation of A shares, for your reference only!

Some stock bull markets continue to deduce.

Since the beginning of this year, the market has interpreted a few sectors and individual stocks as extremely rising prices. Choice data shows that only 9 10 of the 4 140 A shares in June 5438+ 10 rose, accounting for only 22%.

In the face of the above extreme market, public offerings and private placements have recently accelerated their positions: on the one hand, they are looking for more certain investment opportunities, mainly focusing on liquor stocks in the consumer sector; On the other hand, look for a new direction of "holding a group", such as procyclical chemical industry. Public offering and private placement continued to adjust positions, which aggravated the strength of a few stocks.

Behind the bull market of a few stocks is actually the convergence operation of the target with high certainty of institutional jiacang.

Tong Xun, general manager and investment director of Tong _ Investment, believes that there are three reasons for the recent strong rise of liquor stocks: First, there are rumors that some liquor products have recently increased in price, and the price increase expectation has increased. Second, before the Spring Festival holiday, it was the peak season for liquor sales, and the performance certainty of related targets was significantly improved. Third, at present, there are few industries with long-term prosperity, and the trend of institutional cohesion will continue with high probability, especially the leading stocks that subdivide the track in the consumer field, which are still the first choice for funds.

Judging from the market in recent years, it is indeed a very hot topic that funds continue to flock to large stocks and high-quality stocks. Many analysts have pointed out that this is the result of economic evolution. In March of 20 19, the yields of US 10-year treasury bonds and 3-month treasury bonds were upside down. This has triggered a round of worries about economic recession, and countries have also carried out counter-cyclical operations to release a lot of liquidity. In this context, the global mainstream funds have basically turned their attention to high-quality assets with relatively high security. China is no exception, so there was this scene two years later.

As Xiang Yan of Guo Xin Securities said, the risk of institutional shareholding "disintegration" is out of the question. In the current era of efficient information dissemination, it is normal for organizations to reach a high degree of agreement on company quality. Whether the shareholding changes depends on the business cycle and has nothing to do with the shareholding. In fact, the fund's heavy position has been changing with the change of business climate. The behavior of institutional group holding does not constitute a risk in itself, but the core is the change of the stock prosperity of the group holding.

In addition, the recent fund issuance broke out frequently. TF Securities pointed out that on the one hand, individual investors' trust in head fund managers holding core assets has increased, and explosions have appeared frequently, further strengthening the bull market of core assets; On the other hand, with the expansion of the management scale of a single fund, considering the transaction level, the possibility of heavy positions of small-cap stocks is reduced, and the possible phenomenon of "copy operation" leads to the further reduction of the capital attention of small-cap companies, so the market once deduced a "bull market of stock market disaster". Companies with a market value below 654.38+00 billion will still be discounted by liquidity and uncertainty.

However, this does not mean that the small ticket will never have a chance. In an extremely loose monetary environment, all stocks have the opportunity to turn over. Of course, it also takes time and opportunity. The biggest significance of these two years may be to reshape the investment concept of the market. (shanghai securities news)

How to obtain excess returns from fund investment?

In the past two years, a cruel fact has become more and more clear. On the one hand, the funds make big profits and sell big, on the other hand, the retail investors are cut to pieces, commonly known as "stock market crash bull market"-index bull market and individual stock bear market.

All stocks are roughly divided into four categories: high-priced and high-quality stocks (good quality and high price), low-priced and high-quality stocks (good quality and low price) and high-priced and low-quality stocks (ugly things and low prices).

In terms of quantity distribution, the long-term average return on equity of more than half of A shares is less than 5%, but the median P/E ratio of all A shares is more than 40 times all the year round. In other words, most A shares are actually high-priced and low-quality stocks.

If you buy at a high price, the yield will naturally not be high-this is the simplest principle in investment, but it is what most individual investors do most often. Because low-quality stocks are usually labeled as attractive: low price, theme, small cap, hot spot, which are rarely concerned by institutions.

The priority of texture is the knowledge of institutional investment. The only difference is that some people are willing to pay a high price, while others are more willing to wait for a low price. Only when there is nothing to buy will we be forced to consider low-quality and low-priced stocks.

In addition to buying funds and indexes, individual investors certainly have another way out, and that is to give up the illusion of high-priced and low-quality stocks. It is often not "what to do" but "what not to do" that improves the rate of return. As for how to find high-quality stocks, there is no shortcut, just like a craftsman who polishes works of art, he studies hard and carefully. Stocks are expensive but not expensive. By reducing the frequency of decision-making and enhancing the depth of decision-making, retail investors have every chance to beat institutions.

Historically, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3,500 points mainly from April 12 to 20 17, 20 15 to 20 15, 20 18 and17 in 2007.

Two times since 2021-2018 65438+1around 3500 points on October 22nd, and since 20 15 12 15, these two times are basically at 3500 points.

For individual investors, is buying a fund once and for all?

In fact, for the layout of the fund, the most important thing is to start from your own needs. Don't blindly enter the market because of the fund's good past performance, thinking that investing in stock funds will definitely make money.

1, initiative is better than passivity, and avoid betting on a single asset fund.

Great changes have taken place in A-shares in recent three years, the proportion of institutional holders has increased significantly, and Public Offering of Fund's overall ability to obtain market excess returns is remarkable. Reflected in the performance of the fund, on the one hand, the overall performance of active stock funds is better than that of passive funds (of course, some single-industry index funds such as liquor perform better); On the other hand, in some thematic funds, active industry funds perform better than passive products, especially in the pharmaceutical industry.

Market participants believe that the proportion of retail investors in the A-share market is relatively high, so there are more opportunities for excess returns brought by market mispricing. Relatively speaking, institutional investors such as funds have obvious advantages, while the scale differentiation in the industry is serious, and active equity funds are relatively more dominant. For investors who are not familiar with the stock market, they can focus on choosing star fund managers to manage the layout of active equity products. Index products are more suitable for investors who have research on the market, and some indexes are not suitable for long-term investment.

However, in active equity funds, it is also necessary to avoid betting on single asset funds, such as hybrid funds in which all the top ten stocks invest in semiconductors. We should know that diversification and portfolio investment, including appropriate diversification of industries, are the basic requirements of fund investment. Although gambling investment can bring fame to fund managers, the large fluctuation of fund net value will seriously affect the investment experience and long-term income of holders.

2, the performance differentiation is big, investors should carefully screen.

Judging from the performance in the last three or five years, the performance of the fund is very different. For example, since 2018 65438+1October 2 1, although the yield of the best-performing products exceeded 350%, 36 funds still suffered losses (calculated by each type), and the loss of the worst-performing products exceeded 37%.

What investors need to pay attention to is that the fund manager had better observe all the funds he manages. Some funds have good performance, while others may have average performance during the management period and need comprehensive comparison. At the same time, fund managers change frequently, and the departure of excellent fund managers often brings fluctuations in the performance of the corresponding funds. When investors choose, it is best to choose a fund manager who proves his value. It is very limited to choose a fund simply from the historical performance and star rating of the fund.

3. The importance of long-term holding

The longer the holding time, the higher the yield of active equity funds and the lower the probability of losses. For many investors, it is best to choose excellent fund managers for a long time and get the "rose of time".

In the past, the important reason why "funds make money and citizens don't make money" often appeared was that investors frequently applied for redemption, often entering the market at a high point and leaving at a low point. The short holding time of the fund is the main reason for the poor income experience of the holders.

However, due to the bullish market in the past two years, public equity funds have performed well as a whole, so equity funds seem to be a better choice. However, in the volatile market, the advantages of some bond varieties are also very obvious. Therefore, if investors want to obtain long-term stable income, it is best to do a good job of asset allocation from their own needs, and take a decisive profit when the book profit is rich or the market is crazy.

The first lesson of this year's investment should be "lowering investment expectations". If investors need funds in the short term, they can choose to keep their bags safe. If it can be held for a long time, even if there is a large withdrawal, the long-term investment ability of the fund in three to five years is still there.

4. "Idolization" should not be blind.

As the stock market is not as hot as buying funds, the explosion rate was gradually released at the end of 20 19, and a group of fund managers also became the object of investors' pursuit, and the number of fund managers managing 10 billion scale surged.

A group of outstanding fund managers have been released and become the stars in the market. Even since this year, many fund managers have been out of the circle, and it is understandable that investors are willing to trust these fund managers. But investors must not be blind. It is necessary to have correct investment expectations and establish a correct view of risk/return. Risk is positively related to income. If you want to get high returns, you have to take higher risks. If you don't want to take risks, you should accept lower returns.

Another issue worthy of attention is the large-scale management of fund managers. According to the statistics of a fund company, among the 145 fund managers whose management scale exceeds 10 billion, among the fund managers who meet the annualized rate of return of five-year performance of more than 15% and rank in the top13 every year, only seven fund managers have excellent long-term performance, accounting for 35%; Among the top 50 fund managers, only 1 1 has excellent long-term performance, accounting for 22%; Of all the fund managers whose management scale exceeds10 billion, only 1 1% have excellent long-term performance.

As long as the improvement of fund manager's level matches the growth of scale, it is reasonable and appropriate. However, if the scale of the fund increases several times, the management level of the fund can't keep up, and the income of fund holders will be damaged with the fluctuation of the market, which is unstable. Historically, the large-scale issuance of funds in the second half of each surge has brought a burden to investors and the fund industry. Investors' evaluation of performance also depends on their management scale.

5, reduce market expectations, you can take the fund to vote.

Some fund managers bluntly said that 202 1 is not a year of lying down to win money, but it will be even harder. In fact, after two years of sharp rise, the growth rate of valuation has exceeded the growth rate of profit. The probability of the overall trend increase of equity assets is reduced, so investors need to appropriately reduce the expected rate of return and pay attention to the grasp of structural opportunities.

In this context, investors can firmly hold funds that are good at stock selection and are not afraid of market fluctuations; Take the fixed investment mode and stick to the idea of fighting a protracted war. In addition, we can actively pay attention to hedging and pure debt products and distribute them.

At the 3500 mark, for investors with limited risk tolerance, take profit and stop loss are all operations that can be considered. But for investors with strong risk tolerance, they can also dilute costs through fixed investment and create space for income. Every history shows that only when the stock market enters the market at a relatively low level will it be profitable with a high probability.

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