Try to analyze the opportunities, threats, advantages and disadvantages of domestic cars?

China automobile industry has entered the second period of rapid growth.

Xu Changming, director of the Information Resources Development Department of the National Information Center, said in a speech entitled "China Automobile Market and Automobile Industry" that China's automobile industry has entered the second period of rapid growth, which is expected to last for about 15 years, with an average annual growth rate of13% ~15%; Meanwhile, second-and third-tier cities, especially third-tier cities, have good development prospects and huge market opportunities.

Passenger cars will continue to grow rapidly before 2020.

Xu Changming said that before 2020, the passenger car market will still be in a rapid development range, the growth rate is about 1.5 times of GDP growth rate, and the time distribution is high before and low after.

Xu Changming introduced that any country's automobile industry has two periods of rapid development. The first rapid development period is from 5 cars per thousand people to 20 cars per thousand people, lasting for 5 years.

Sales increased by about 30% annually; The second high-speed development period is from 20 vehicles per thousand people to 0/00 vehicles per thousand people/kloc. During this period, the sales volume increased by about 20% every year. This rapid development.

The extension period will generally last 10 years.

"The first high-speed development period of China automobile is 200 1 ~ 2008. In 200 1 year, the number of passenger cars in China was 4.5, and in 2008, passenger cars.

The number of thousands is 2 1. Xu Changming specifically analyzed, "It is speculated that the second period of rapid growth in China will last from 2009 to 2023, about 15 years, and the average annual growth rate during this period is in

13%~ 15%。 Compared with Japan and South Korea, China's two high-speed growth periods are longer than those of Japan and South Korea, and the average sales growth rate is slightly lower than that of Japan and South Korea. "

Why does the rapid development of China's automobile industry take longer than that of other countries? Xu Changming said that this is mainly because of the large income gap among China residents. Research shows that the popularity of durable consumer goods is closely related to income distribution. The more equal the income distribution, the shorter the popularization time of durable consumer goods. The greater the income gap, the longer it will take to popularize durable consumer goods.

"In the past 20 years of reform and opening up, China's urban-rural income gap, the income gap between the eastern, central and western regions, and the industry income gap have been expanding, so it will take longer for China to complete the process of automobile popularization at a lower speed than Japan and South Korea." Xu Changming further analyzed.

The total demand saturation point of automobiles is at least 30 million.

Xu Changming cautiously predicted that the saturation point of China's total automobile demand would be at least 30 million vehicles, with 450 million vehicles.

"This result is based on the car penetration rate of major countries in the world. Today, the number of thousands of cars in Europe and Japan is more than 600, and the United States has the highest penetration rate, reaching 800. " Xu Changming Shinichi

Step analysis, "If the number of cars per thousand people is 600 and the population is 65.438+0.5 billion, the number of cars in China can even reach 900 million; However, when calculating the ownership, we carefully use 300 vehicles per thousand people and per population.

The data of 65.438+0.5 billion is calculated, and then there are 450 million vehicles. "

He believes that if Beijing does not introduce the policy of blocking and restricting purchases, then the number of cars with 1,000 people in Beijing will be Chi Ming at the end of this year.

It will reach 300 by the end of the year. From the developed situation, the number of cars with 1,000 people in metropolises is the lowest, and the number in small and medium-sized cities is the highest, because metropolises take public transportation as the main mode of travel, while small and medium-sized cities take public transportation as the main mode of travel.

Private cars are the mainstay. In this regard, it can be concluded that as long as Beijing can reach 300 cars per thousand people, once the economic development level of other regions reaches the current level of Beijing, there is no need to exceed 300 cars per thousand people.

There is no doubt about it.

The future increment depends on the second and third tier cities.

Xu Changming said that in the future, the growth point of China automobile market will shift from first-and second-tier cities to second-and third-tier cities, especially third-tier cities.

At present, the automobile market share of first-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities is roughly 3: 4: 3. From 2007 to 2009, the market share of first-tier cities declined year by year, while that of third-tier cities declined.

The amount increased from 24.7% to 29.3%, with an annual increase of 2-3 percentage points. Xu Changming predicts that by 2020, the market share of third-tier cities will expand to 55%, and first-tier cities may fall to

15%。 "This judgment mainly comes from two bases, one is determined by the development stage and population size, and the other is brought about by the accelerated transfer of industries to second-and third-tier cities." Xu Changming said.

Xu Changming analysis

Especially pointed out the consumption characteristics of third-tier cities. First of all, consumers in third-tier cities love face. They like the appearance, spacious interior, complete interior configuration, durable leather and high brand awareness.

Cars; However, limited by economic income, consumers in third-tier cities are more willing to buy cars with lower prices and operating costs. In this way, products sold to third-tier cities need to sacrifice invisibility, that is, reduce technology.

Surgical content. Secondly, we should consider formulating marketing models and strategies suitable for second-and third-tier cities; Then we have to change channels to make the break-even point of a single store low and the input cost low. At the same time, the issue of regional coverage should also be considered.

Title.

Kubo Iron Man: Emerging countries are becoming global automobile growth centers.

Ironman, vice president of FOURIN Japan, said in his speech that the automobile market in emerging countries is expanding and becoming the center of growth; The future growth of the automobile market depends on the growth of emerging markets. He also analyzed the characteristics of automobile markets in India, Russia, Brazil and ASEAN.

Half the cars in the world are sold in emerging countries.

"As can be seen from the statistical chart, the economic crisis has changed the balance of the world market. In the early 1990s, the auto market in emerging countries only accounted for about 20% of the global auto market share, but by 2009, it had already.

More than 50%, it can be said that 1 of the two cars sold in the global automobile market are sold in emerging countries. China's automobile market share in the global market is also close to 25%, 2065438+00, that is, every sales volume in the global automobile market.

Of the four cars, 65,438+0 are sold in China. Kubo ironman said, "It can be said that the automobile industry market in emerging countries is expanding and becoming the center of growth, and the future growth of the automobile market needs to rely on emerging countries.

Growth of the market. "

India-High Localization of Small Cars as Main Components

Kubo ironman believes that among emerging countries, the main driving force for the sustained growth of India's automobile industry comes from the small car market. This has also made global automakers compete to launch low-priced small cars in India, which in turn has produced ultra-low-priced cars like TataNano. He also said that the replacement demand from motorcycles in the Indian market dominated by small cars is also worth looking forward to.

The data shows that India will strive to produce 6.4 million cars in 20 15 and10.2 million cars in 2020. Whether the above production targets can be achieved, Kubo Iron Man analysis, depends on India's low-cost cars.

Competition and the possibility of parts production and export base. The advantage of the future development of the Indian market lies in the huge market scale and potential demand, and the disadvantage lies in the imperfect road infrastructure.

Worth mentioning

Yes, the Indian government attaches great importance to cultivating the auto parts industry, and then makes it a rare country with highly localized parts among emerging countries, effectively reducing the procurement cost of parts. The advantages of spare parts procurement promote Indian production.

Ultra-low-priced cars like Tata Nano. From the perspective of industrial distribution, India's auto parts industry has further expanded in the north, middle and south. It is estimated that by 2020, the annual output value of auto parts in India will increase to 5 trillion rupees.

Five times that of 2009.

Russia-vacillating policies may hinder industrial development

Kubo Tieren believes that another emerging country that needs high attention is Russia. As a big automobile country in history, it has been a representative of advanced countries in automobile industry for a long time since the Soviet period. However, due to national politics

The change of government and social unrest have made the Russian automobile industry go downhill. At present, Russia has a multi-level automobile market, including used cars in the Far East, used cars in Western Europe, local domestic cars, imported cars from Europe and America and joint venture cars.

The production of automobiles develops and lives here.

The Russian government has been interested in expanding the automobile industry, but its vacillating industrial policies and the disadvantages of existing industries may hinder the development of its automobile industry. Whether Russia can realize the peaceful coexistence of local brands and foreign brands deserves further attention.

Brazil-the Future Automobile Export Base

"The expansion of the Brazilian market is also worthy of attention," Kubo Tieren pointed out. "The development of the Brazilian automobile market is unsustainable. After a long period of stagnation, the automobile industry has developed again due to the expansion of domestic demand.

In the past few years, the market size of 20 10 has grown to 3.5 million vehicles. He concluded that the development of Brazil's automobile market is characterized by low-cost and low-profit market competition centered on small cars with displacement of 1000cc; country

The domestic sales scale is steadily expanding with small cars as the center, and production bases for domestic and neighboring countries are being cultivated. In the future, the prospect of Brazil as an automobile export base and then expanding its industrial scale can be expected.

Six ASEAN countries explore their own automobile road

Kubo Tieren pointed out that the ASEAN market has also recovered rapidly in recent years. The data shows that in 20 10, the automobile sales of the six ASEAN countries reached 2.5 million. Compared with other emerging countries, the scale of this industry

It may not be high, but ASEAN countries are actively looking for their position in the world automobile industry. For example, after the pickup truck export base in Thailand, the EcoCar plan was put forward, that is, the eco-car plan. Indian Nishi

The Asian motorcycle market has grown substantially; Malaysia develops around the national car, but the original strategy is difficult to implement. "It is worth noting that the development of the Philippine and Vietnamese markets is a policy of importing used cars, because these two

The three countries mainly import used cars to meet the demand of their own cars, so the production and sales of new cars in China have stopped. "Kubo iron man analysis.

Finally, Kubo Tieren said that the development of the automobile industry is inseparable from the expansion of population and economic scale. Theoretically, the development of automobile market in Mexico, Poland, Pakistan, Nigeria, Iran and other populous countries is also worthy of attention.

Hiroichi Shimokawa: the challenge of sustainable development of automobile industry

Hiroichi Shimokawa, honorary president of Japan Automobile Research Association, summed up the experience of some automobile companies by analyzing the deep-seated reasons of GM bankruptcy, Toyota's huge deficit and recall, and expressed his views on the future development of automobile industry in emerging countries.

First of all, Hiroichi Shimokawa proposed that the automobile industry entered a period of mode transformation in the 2 1 century, and the fuse of mode transformation was the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the United States.

Hiroichi Shimokawa said that after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the United States, there were two landmark events-the bankruptcy of General Motors and the huge deficit and recall of Toyota. He believes that the bankruptcy of GM is caused by the following factors.

First, GM relies too much on GMAC loans, not cars; The second is the misleading of the wrong strategy for 20 years; Third, the factory reform was slow, and they stopped on the road of developing new passenger cars, leaving huge funds.

Ben and the high salary given to employees make GM overwhelmed; Fourth, the breakdown of labor negotiations; Fifth, global mergers and acquisitions; A (acquisition and merger) is a huge failure.

Lehman's bankruptcy is a fatal blow to the American auto industry and a huge impact on Toyota. At that time, Toyota cut its production capacity by 20%, resulting in a large deficit.

The main reasons for Toyota's recall are as follows: First, Toyota's global operation is immature; Second, there was a shortage of talents at that time, and the training of talents was lagging behind, which led to low execution; The third is automotive software technology.

It is not accompanied by the synchronous development of electronics and high-tech parts; Fourthly, the global procurement of spare parts has greatly reduced the production cost, but there are problems in the integration of spare parts, which have caused potential hidden dangers and have not been absorbed by the world.

TQM (Total Quality Management) experience in the mid-1990s; Fifth, Toyota's big enterprise disease led to slow initial response measures and poor information communication. Hiroichi Shimokawa believes that Toyota must be rebuilt after the recall.

Type crisis management mechanism and corporate culture, re-examine the global parts procurement.

Shimokawa summed up some concerns about the future operation of automobile companies by drawing lessons from the bankruptcy of General Motors and the recall of Toyota cars.

problem He proposed to innovate the old business model and build a new business model; Change the investment direction of cutting-edge research and development; Re-attach importance to long-term stable return on investment; Put an end to speculation that only pursues short-term stock prices and dividends.

Shareholders; Strive for the long-term stable development of the stock market and cooperate with investors who are willing to make key investments for it; Facing the innovative knowledge society, we must cultivate all kinds of talents; Put an end to short-sighted and unprincipled operators; Put an end to manual labor

Cost is regarded as a fixed cost, which is poisoned by the stale global dominance theory; Cultivate a visionary, ambitious and thoughtful management team; Only by relying on some elite talents, it is impossible to realize the mode transformation and the unity of the two innovations.

When talking about the future of automobile industry in emerging countries, Shimokawa Hiroichi said: "Emerging countries like China are facing problems such as aging society, unbalanced energy supply and demand, and great difficulty in macro-control of international payments." He realized

Therefore, emerging countries should narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, try to avoid the emergence of financial bubbles and inflation, be alert to the emergence of self-centered over-consumption society, and be alert to the danger of imitating the automobile industry in developed countries to pursue large-scale production expansion.

Risk.

At the same time, Hiroichi Shimokawa believes that emerging countries have an innate excellent environment, which can be free from the restrictions of existing industrial models or technology transfer, and have the possibility of challenging new technologies alone, which can also be improved.

The technology of advanced countries has surpassed; Emerging countries have more opportunities to transform into a society without fossil fuels and decarbonization and without the burden of the past; These countries are potential environmental protection science and technology powers, which will help to realize environmental protection in the future.

Technology and decarbonization contribute to the sustainable development model.

Hiroichi Shimokawa fully affirmed some practices and policies adopted by the China government based on its emphasis on the environment, and he believed that the automobile market in China would continue to grow.

Kenlang Takayama: The automobile market and automobile technology will be more diversified.

In his speech, Takayama Kenlang, a former industry analyst of Nissan Automotive Research Department, said that the number of cars in the world has increased by leaps and bounds in the past decade. With the popularity of automobiles in emerging countries, in order to cope with global warming, the technologies adopted by the automobile industry in the future will also be diversified.

According to the statistical analysis of Takayama Kenlang, in recent years, the global automobile industry has developed rapidly, and the growth rate of global automobile ownership has been accelerating. By 20 10, the number of cars in the world will exceed 10 billion. Looking back from

From 1945 to 20 10, the number of cars in the world increased from 250 million to 500 million, which took about 15 years. From 500 million to 750 million, it took about 15 years. But from 750 million to

65.438+00 billion vehicles only took 65.438+00 years. According to the data of World Automobile Statistical Yearbook, the growth rate of car ownership in China is particularly alarming in terms of regions. From 2000 to 2009, just nine years, China auto insurance.

The number increased rapidly from140,000 to 6 10/0,000; The number of cars in the United States, India and Brazil also increased by 36 million, 8 million and 654.38+065.438+00000 respectively.

Gaoshan (GS)

Kenlang pointed out that the rapid growth of global car ownership in recent years is inseparable from the vigorous development of the auto market in emerging countries. With the popularity of automobiles in emerging countries, the automobile market will develop in a more diversified direction.

Exhibition, from a big perspective, there will be more multi-purpose, ultra-low price models to meet the needs of emerging markets; From a small perspective, individual markets still have the characteristics of being integrated into the local social atmosphere, history and culture.

There are different models, typical of which are pickup trucks in American market, light vehicles in Japanese market and low-priced mini-cars in China market.

In addition to the diversification of models, Takayama Kenlang said that in order to cope with the whole

With global warming, the technologies adopted by the automobile industry in the future will also be diversified. He believes that a key technology determines competitiveness, and the possibility of concentrating competitiveness on enterprises with specific technologies will be reduced; Using environmental technology

With the increasingly clear development direction of technology, most automobile manufacturers and suppliers will tend to jointly plan and develop technology. In Takayama Kenlang's view, in order to realize the miniaturization of the car and the lightweight of the body, in addition to the simple power system.

The importance of practical technology cannot be ignored.

On the other hand, in order to save energy and reduce emissions, all countries have set the goal of improving fuel consumption, and Japan is no exception. According to the information provided by Takayama Kenlang, Japan is

In 2007, it was established that the average fuel consumption of gasoline passenger cars should be reduced to 16.8km/L in 20 15 years. According to authoritative statistics, the average fuel consumption of passenger cars in Japan has reached 16.9km in 2008.

/L, in 2009, it was18.1km/l. The goal of improving fuel consumption has been achieved ahead of schedule, and the goal of improving fuel consumption in 2020 is currently being formulated.

At the same time, the Japanese government has also formulated traditional cars.

And the proportion of the new generation of cars in the popularization of passenger cars in the future. According to the data, according to the plan of the Japanese government, the proportion of traditional Japanese cars in passenger cars should be 50% ~ 80% in 2020, and the proportion of new generation cars should be 50% ~ 80%.

The weight is 20% ~ 50%; By 2030, the proportion of traditional cars in passenger cars will drop to 30% ~ 50%, and the proportion of new generation cars will account for 50% ~ 70%, among which hybrid cars will account for the whole.

Passenger cars account for 30% ~ 40%, and plug-in hybrid vehicles account for 20%~30%.

Zhou Jincheng: Development and Industry Trend of New Energy Vehicles in China

Zhou Jincheng, deputy general manager of Beijing Fuourui Automobile Consulting Co., Ltd., introduced the development status and industrial policies of electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles in the world and China at the forum.

Japan dominates the development of hybrid electric vehicles.

Statistics show that in 20 10, the global sales scale of hybrid passenger cars has reached 900,000. In terms of composition ratio, the sales of hybrid passenger cars in China accounted for only 0.6% of the world in 20 10, and the top three were Japan, the United States and Europe, accounting for 53.5%, 30.5% and1.2% respectively.

Zhou Jincheng analyzed: "The growth of hybrid vehicles in Japan has become the main driving force for the growth of global hybrid vehicle sales. In 2009, it surpassed the United States and became the world's largest hybrid electric vehicle market; American hybrid electric power

The decline in automobile sales is mainly affected by the relatively stable fuel prices in the United States and the financial crisis; In Europe, the competitive advantage of hybrid passenger cars in terms of price and fuel consumption is not obvious compared with diesel cars. "

In addition, the data also shows that in 20 10, more than 90% of the global sales share of hybrid passenger cars was divided by Toyota, Honda and Ford. Among them, Toyota ranks first in the world with a market share as high as 77%.

A large hybrid passenger car sales company. "After seeing that the hybrid passenger car market was widely occupied by Japanese cars, German car companies such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW also increased their research and development efforts on hybrid passenger cars.

Degree, and strive to meet the needs of high-end customers with strong environmental awareness. "Zhou Jincheng said. However, only a few companies in China, such as brilliance jinbei, Changan and Dongfeng Motor, have achieved the sales performance of hybrid passenger cars.

China government strongly supports the electric vehicle industry.

Zhou Jincheng pointed out in his speech that by combing the support policies of major automobile producing countries in the world for the production, research and development, infrastructure construction and purchase of electric vehicles, as of 20 10 and 12, most automobile producing countries

Relevant policies to support the electric vehicle industry have been introduced. By comparing the support policies of various countries and regions for the electric vehicle industry, it is found that the support of China government for the electric vehicle industry is stronger than that of developed countries.

Grew up in China

According to the development goal of new energy automobile industry in the future, according to the draft "Development Plan of Automobile and New Energy Automobile Industry (20 1 1 ~ 2020)", as far as the hybrid passenger car (HEV) is concerned, by 20 15 years, China.

To realize the industrialization of HEV, prepare a mild hybrid system with idle start-stop function, and strive to realize 6,543.8+0,000 moderate and full hybrid vehicles; By 2020, the annual sales of medium-sized and all-hybrid vehicles will be

Strive to reach 3 million vehicles. As far as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and electric vehicles (EV) are concerned, EV/PHEV will be initially industrialized by 20 15, and the number of vehicles will reach 500,000.

Vehicles, built to adapt to the scale of the market infrastructure system; By 2020, the scale of EV/PHEV will strive to reach 5 million, and the charging facilities will be improved in the urban agglomeration where EV is first put into operation.

Regarding the development of EV components, Zhou Jincheng said that by 20 15, 3-5 key enterprises will be cultivated for major components such as batteries and motors, and the industrial intensity will strive to reach 60%; By 20 10, we will cultivate 2~3 manufacturers of major components such as batteries and motors with independent intellectual property rights and strong international competitiveness, and strive to achieve 80% industrial intensity.

"This is an industrial policy based on the sustainable growth of the automobile industry, aiming at achieving the stability of energy supply." Zhou Jincheng believes.