Against the "ban on burning", where will the future of fuel vehicles go?

For a long time before, new energy vehicles were regarded as the general trend of automobile development in the future, and the remarks about banning the sale of fuel vehicles once attracted various controversies. A recent meeting gave different definitions of the future development of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles.

On September 16, at the 2020 Global New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain Innovation Conference hosted by the Nanjing Municipal People's Government and China Electric Vehicle committee of 100, Wang Binggang, the leader of the National New Energy Vehicle Innovation Engineering Expert Group, introduced the latest progress of "Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0".

At the meeting, Wang Binggang revealed a message that there was a very important proposition in the "Technology Roadmap 2.0 for Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles" which he participated in, and he neither advocated that China should formulate the so-called "timetable for banning the sale of fuel vehicles" nor advocated banning the sale of fuel vehicles. This is undoubtedly good news for consumers, which means that there is a high probability that fuel vehicles will not withdraw from the market because of the ban on sales in the future. However, it does not mean that traditional fuel vehicles can continue to be produced and sold without change. On the contrary, future fuel vehicles should conform to the general trend of energy saving and emission reduction and make corresponding changes.

First of all, we must understand why experts now advocate that fuel vehicles cannot be sold, which is mainly considered from three dimensions. First, China is different from the most radical European countries on the road of banning burning. China has a vast territory and diverse terrain, which leads to the diversity of climate, road conditions and car use scenes in different parts of China. Both automobile technology and energy structure need to be diversified to better meet the demand; Secondly, China is a country with huge energy consumption, and it is undoubtedly very unsafe if transportation only depends on electric energy; Third, China's current power generation mode is still dominated by coal-fired power generation. Coal is a valuable resource other than energy, and its use needs to be cherished and controlled. Besides coal, there are abundant energy sources in the world, such as oil and natural gas.

If you think about it carefully, you will find that the experts have very good reasons. If only electric energy is used as the power supply mode for automobiles, it will be a great test for China's resources and power generation.

In addition, Wang Binggang also stressed: "In the next fifteen years, China's traditional cars will be fully transformed into hybrid vehicles." In order to survive, fuel vehicles must conform to the trend of the times and take the road of reducing fuel consumption and emissions, which is also the reason why the traditional vehicles mentioned above should be changed in time. Hybrid power, in layman's terms, is that the driving system of a vehicle consists of two or more single driving systems that can run at the same time, rather than the power system with only one internal combustion engine. Usually, the hybrid electric vehicles we can see basically have both internal combustion engines and electric motors, including two sets of technologies: oil-electric hybrid and plug-in hybrid.

Plug-in hybrid technology is relatively mature at present, and many car companies also produce and sell plug-in hybrid models. However, at present, there are still relatively few hybrid models, among which the hybrid models of Honda and Toyota are good examples of using hybrid models. Compared with plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, hybrid electric vehicle is not a new energy vehicle, but it does not need to be recharged for daily use, and it can greatly improve the dynamic response, driving experience and reduce fuel consumption, so it is a real energy-saving vehicle. Since hybrid electric technology has so many advantages, why do China car companies still use this technology less? To put it bluntly, it is because the technical limitations of hybrid oil and electricity are in front of us.

Compared with pure electric vehicle technology, which is likely to achieve "overtaking in corners", hybrid electric vehicle technology started late in China, and its production cost was limited by technical difficulty. Higher cost further led to the failure to sell hybrid electric vehicles at lower prices, which led automobile manufacturers to pursue pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles with lower costs and better market response, instead of studying hybrid electric vehicle technology and hybrid electric vehicles with less production and sales. At present, the top three Japanese companies, represented by Honda, Toyota and Nissan, are the main mass producers of hybrid vehicles in the market. In the future, in order to transform China's traditional fuel vehicles into hybrid vehicles, in addition to plug-in hybrid technology, hybrid vehicle technology will surely become the focus of development.

With the change of policy, the hybrid electric technology that few people care about before will become the favorite in the market, which requires China car companies not only to increase their independent research and development efforts, but also to cooperate with foreign car companies that have mastered advanced and mature technologies at present. Honda and Toyota will undoubtedly become the primary partners. After all, they have opened the patent of hybrid electric technology, so why not cooperate with them?

There is an old saying that it is better to rely on others than on yourself. Through the cooperation with the enterprises that have mastered advanced technology at present, it can really help China automobile enterprises to realize the development of hybrid electric technology quickly, but at the same time, we must not forget that in the cooperation with foreign automobile enterprises, we must increase the investment in independent research and development and strive for an early technological breakthrough. Only by mastering the core technologies that are difficult to copy and surpass can we truly be in an invincible position in the market competition.

To sum up, experts' views on the long-term ban on the sale of fuel vehicles are more positive. In the future, China will not implement the policy of banning the sale of fuel vehicles for a long time, and hybrid and new energy vehicles will become an overall trend of automobile development in the future. On the road from traditional fuel vehicles to hybrid vehicles, China still has a long way to go and needs to overcome a series of problems including technology. Only by mastering excellent technology can China automobile enterprises be in an advantageous position in the future market competition.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.