Analyze whether China Merchants Real Estate is a common stock or a blue chip stock and explain the reasons.

I think China Merchants Real Estate is a blue-chip stock between the first-tier and second-tier real estate stocks. The first-tier stocks are Vanke, Poly, etc.

Blue chip stocks

Blue chip stocks refer to stable cash dividend policies that have higher requirements for company cash flow management. Usually those stocks with better operating performance and stable and higher cash dividends are The shares of the companies that pay are called "blue chip stocks." Blue chip stocks mostly refer to large, traditional industrial stocks and financial stocks with long-term stable growth. The term "blue chip" comes from Western casinos. In Western casinos, there are three colors of chips, among which blue chips are the most valuable.

1 Brief description

In the stock market, investors refer to the stocks of large companies that occupy an important dominant position in their industry, have excellent performance, active transactions, and generous dividends. For blue chip stocks.

Blue chip stocks, company stocks with good management, stable profit-making ability, and returns to shareholders year after year. This type of company has the ability to earn profits during both good and bad times in the industry, with less risk.

Although mainland China's stock market has a short history, it has developed very rapidly, and some blue chip stocks have also appeared.

The term "blue chip" comes from Western casinos. In Western casinos, there are three colors of chips. Blue chips are the most valuable, red chips are the second most valuable, and white chips are the worst. Investors apply these jargons to stocks.

2 Properties

It has excellent performance, stable income, large equity scale, generous dividends, stable stock price trend, and good market image.

(1) During the recession, the company can formulate plans and measures to ensure the company's development;

(2) During the prosperity period, the company can maximize its capabilities to create profits;

(3) During the period of inflation, the company's actual profitability remains unchanged or increases.

Blue chip stocks are not static. As the company's operating conditions change and its economic status rises and falls, the ranking of blue chip stocks will also change. According to statistics from the famous American magazine "Forbes", among the 100 largest companies in 1917 (the year of Dingxin), only 43 companies were still among the blue-chip stocks by 2010. The railways, which were the "bluest" and the most prosperous industry at the time, were Stocks have now completely lost their qualifications and strength to be selected as blue chip stocks. Blue chip stocks have a larger weighting in the broader market.

3 Categories

There are many blue chip stocks, which can be divided into: first-tier blue chip stocks, second-tier blue chip stocks, blue chip stocks, large-cap blue chip stocks; and blue chip stocks.

First-tier blue chip stocks

There is no clear definition between first-tier and second-tier stocks, and what some people consider first-tier blue chip stocks are second-tier stocks in the eyes of others. Generally speaking, the recognized first-line blue chips refer to stocks with stable performance, large outstanding shares and total equity, that is, larger weights. Generally speaking, the price of such stocks is not too high, but the public base is good. This type of stocks can make a difference and affect the whole body. Such stocks mainly include: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Sinopec, Kweichow Moutai, Minsheng Bank, Vanke, Shenzhen Development Bank, Wuliangye, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Poly Real Estate, Shandong Gold, Daqin Railway, etc.

Second-tier blue-chip stocks

The so-called second-tier blue chips in the A-share market refer to first-tier blue-chip companies that are slightly inferior to the above-mentioned first-tier blue chips in terms of market value, industry status and popularity. Compared with several first-line blue chips. For example, Conch Cement, Yantai Wanhua, Sany Heavy Industry, Gezhouba, Guanghui, Zoomlion, Gree Electric, Qingdao Haier, Midea, Suning Electric, Yunnan Baiyao, Changyu, ZTE, etc. In fact, this company is also an industry It is a well-known leading enterprise within the industry (if you look at it from within the industry alone, it is also a first-line blue chip in its respective industry).

Blue-chip stocks

Blue-chip stocks are a word derived from comparison with blue-chip stocks. They are company stocks that have been recognized by the industry as having excellent performance, generous dividends, and maintaining stable growth. "Excellent" refers to the selection of the best stocks from the perspective of performance rankings.

Large-cap blue-chip stocks

Blue-chip stocks refer to listed companies with larger share capital and market value, but not all large-cap stocks can be called blue-chip stocks, so an exact standard must be set for blue-chip stocks. more difficult. Judging from the experience of various countries, those companies with large market capitalization, stable performance, leading positions in the industry, and can have a considerable impact on the securities market - such as Hong Kong's Cheung Kong and Hutchison Whampoa; IBM in the United States; IBM in the United Kingdom; Lloyd's of London and others can take on the reputation of "blue chip stocks". Those with a large market capitalization are blue chips. There are also some blue chips in the Chinese market, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, PetroChina, and Sinopec.

1. Steel Industry: Revaluation of Performance Growth Value

Chinese steel stocks represented by Baosteel Co., Ltd. deserve to receive reasonable market pricing. Given an excessively high discount rate or risk premium, the values ??of major steel listings have been significantly underestimated. As the upstream and downstream of an industrial chain, there cannot always be a valuation "depression". A price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times for steel stocks is the international level.

Key steel stocks with a price-to-earning ratio lower than 20 times: Baosteel Co., Ltd., Anshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., and Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.

2. Port industry: main line of investment: underestimation + asset injection

Although the sector valuation is in place, the valuation differences of individual stocks in the sector are relatively obvious. Shanghai Port, Nanjing Port, Chongqing Port The valuation of the port is more than double that of Yingkou Port, Shenzhen Chiwan Port and Yantian Port. With the sector valuation already in place, safety is an important factor that needs to be considered when we propose an investment strategy for 2007. At the same time, in a market environment where the overall industry has a growth rate of 20%, it can have more port resources and occupy a more active market position in future market competition. Therefore, companies with possible asset acquisitions are also the targets of our attention.

Key port stocks with a price-to-earnings ratio lower than 20 times: Yantian Port, Shenzhen Chiwan Port, and Yingkou Port.

3. Coal Industry: Expansion brings opportunities

From the perspective of investment target selection, it is recommended to give priority to enterprises with core competitiveness and pay more attention to "bottom-up" strategy. The main line of logic is: prices remain high - production capacity increases can be fully released - transportation is relaxed - companies with little impact on costs are the most worthy of investment. It is expected that asset value injection and overall listing will be important investment themes and opportunities faced by the entire coal industry from 2007 to 2008.

Key coal stocks with a P/E ratio below 20 times: Lanhua Science and Technology, Xishan Coal and Electricity, Kailuan Co., Ltd., Guoyang New Energy, Hengyuan Coal and Electricity, Jinniu Energy, Yanzhou Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Pingmei Tianan, Shenhuo Shares

4. Highway industry: long-term stable growth, focus on value revaluation

my country's highway industry will maintain steady growth in 2007 and even for a long time to come. the trend of. The continued and steady growth of the national economy, the network effect brought about by the gradual improvement of road network construction, the drop in oil prices and the increase in traffic volume brought about by overseas investment have created a good external environment and opportunities for the stable development of the entire industry.

Key highway stocks with a price-earning ratio lower than 20 times: Jiangxi-Guangdong Expressway, Anhui-Tong Expressway, Zhongyuan Expressway, and Modern Investment.

4 Investment Value

Since quantitative investment requires extremely complex model calculations and information support, fundamental analysis has become the main method for ordinary investors to share the growth of the stock market.

Fundamental analysis is usually divided into growth investment and value investment. The focus of growth investment is to predict and discover listed companies that can achieve explosive growth in the next 5-10 years, and to invest in the early stages of corporate growth. Model investment has high risks, large returns, huge time costs and opportunity costs, and is suitable for professional investors; while the focus of value investment is to track the performance of industry leaders with excellent performance, invest when their stock prices are undervalued, and share the steady growth of the company's performance and dividend income, suitable for the majority of investors. Among them, blue chip stock investment is the main way to realize the value investment method.

5China

In May 2012, the person in charge of the China Securities Regulatory Commission said: "Advocating attention to blue-chip stocks is essentially advocating the concept of rational investment and value investment. Underperforming stocks are more uncertain. , only experienced investors are suitable for risky investment choices. "China's blue-chip stocks are the real value of the stock market, mainly based on the following considerations:

First, from the perspective of the blue-chip stocks themselves. In terms of characteristics, first of all, blue-chip companies have a long history, high reputation and good credit, strong product competitiveness, generally have relatively stable profitability, and can better withstand cyclical fluctuations. At the same time, the dividend policy is stable and the dividend rate is relatively high. High; secondly, blue chip stocks represent the direction of changes in economic structure and industrial structure, and grasp the pulse of the development of the times. For example, the constituent stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Index are the blue-chip stocks with the longest history in the global stock market. The structural changes of its index constituent stocks overall reflect the changes in the U.S. economic structure. Finally, the large market capitalization and large circulation of blue-chip companies make their stock trading relatively difficult. Being manipulated.

Second, from the perspective of performance, as of the end of April 2012, all 938 Shanghai-listed companies had disclosed their 2011 annual reports. Among them, the total assets and net assets of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index constituent stocks at the end of 2011 They accounted for 93.3% and 82% of the total number of listed companies in Shanghai Stock Exchange respectively. In 2011***, the company achieved operating income of 13353.971 billion yuan and net profit of 1465.008 billion yuan, accounting for 74.9% and 89.2% of the total operating income and net profit of all listed companies respectively. The operating income and net profit increased by 22.8% and 15.0% respectively compared with 2010. %, not only its performance is higher than the average level of the Shanghai stock market, but also in the context of the overall economic slowdown in 2011, its performance growth rate is still higher than the overall level of the Shanghai stock market.

Thirdly, from the perspective of dividend distribution, among the Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index constituent stocks, 145 listed companies have announced profit distribution plans, of which 143 companies have paid cash dividends, and the total planned cash distribution reaches 408.626 billion yuan, accounting for 28% of the total net profit of 180 constituent stocks in 2011. Among them, 6 companies distributed more than 10 billion yuan in cash in 2011, namely Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, PetroChina, and Sinopec, accounting for 34%, 35%, and 35% of their net profits respectively. , 35%, 23%, 40%.

Stable dividends provide bond-like income characteristics and can provide investors with relatively stable cash flow.

Fourth, from the perspective of corporate governance, taking the Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index constituent stocks as an example, most listed companies perform better in corporate governance and standardized operations, and excellent and honest management teams, standardized Company operations are the cornerstone for achieving sustained, stable and rapid development of the company and maximizing shareholder value.

Theme stocks are mainly based on themes. For example, stocks related to the Olympics during the Olympic Games will attract attention. Theme stocks are stocks with good news such as restructuring, private placement, and overall listing.

6 Rules

According to research, the industry rotation at various stages of Japan’s bull market in the 1980s showed the following rules:

Before February 1987: Revalued assets industries, such as electricity and natural gas, real estate, banking, and securities; February 1987 to December 1988: cyclical industries driven by external demand, such as papermaking, steel, transportation equipment, machinery, etc.; after 1989: based on Consumer service industries with domestic demand, such as mining, construction, metal products, information services, commercial trade, technology stocks, etc.

The basic driving force of this rotation is the reduction in trade surplus, inflation, domestic demand, etc. brought about by the appreciation of the yen. The essence is the change in the economic structure, which means that the above-mentioned liquidity is transmitted to the real economy. It is worth noting during this period that the intersecting industries of the real economy and the virtual economy have always been repeatedly strengthening. For example, the real estate trend basically overlaps with the Nikkei 225. Our research found that the real estate trend in the global market has a strong positive correlation with the stock market trend. But they are not synchronized; house price trends are relatively less volatile than the stock market.

Asset revaluation also proceeds in three sequences. In 2006, commercial real estate and resource assets were heavily explored and the market was booming; currently, the most dazzling ones are those that have been listed or are to be listed. Financial assets mainly include the equity of banks, insurance companies, and securities companies; in the future, there will be a concept of cross-shareholding that will have a greater scale effect and is currently being explored. One branch of this is the current indiscriminate bombardment of the venture capital concept.

The third step of asset revaluation has greatly amplified the bubble and supported the performance growth of some "pseudo blue chips". Some people have pointed out that equity investment will affect the growth of listed companies by 30% in 2008, so we are It's best to be wary of blue-chip equity investments.

The differentiation of blue chips after asset revaluation is extremely serious, and blue chip games will swing into cyclical industries. Investors are very wary of cyclical companies, causing the stock prices of cyclical companies to be much lower than their due value. However, the role of economic laws is unstoppable. A report from Changjiang Securities (19.11, -0.04, -0.21%, bar) stated that after 1987, a large amount of funds flowed into the real economy and blue-chip performance rose. The most surprising thing was the decline of cyclical industries in the Japanese bull market. Performance: The conclusion shows that cyclical industries such as steel, air transportation, machinery, coal, and securities achieved significant excess returns in the late stages of the bull market. U.S. stock market statistics also come to the same conclusion. After 1989, the performance of cyclical stocks weakened, while the performance of other types of stocks could still be maintained, such as technology stocks and consumer stocks. The power of funds to promote the stock market became smaller and smaller, and funds began to shift to some small-cap and growth stocks.

7 How to choose

Generally speaking, people think that "blue chip stocks" are the first-class and best stocks, but this is not necessarily the case. The definition of blue chip stocks on the American Stock Exchange website is: The so-called blue chip stocks refer to the stocks of companies that have won a national reputation for the quality of their products or services and their profitability and profitability that transcend the economic boom. It sounds convoluted, but you can find several key words in it: well-known large companies, stable profit records, dividend growth, management quality and product quality, etc. There is roughly a vague concept. In fact, there is no single accurate definition of blue-chip stocks. It exists in some indexes, in the reports of securities analysts, and in the minds of some consumers.

The stocks of large companies are not necessarily blue chip stocks, but blue chip stocks must be the stocks of large companies.

In terms of market value, in February 2004, the total market value of the 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average was more than 3 trillion U.S. dollars, and the average market value exceeded 100 billion U.S. dollars, which is almost equivalent to the domestic production of a medium-sized country like Finland in one year. Total value; in terms of assets, Citigroup, JP Morgan, GE, GM and other companies have reached hundreds of billions of dollars, and Citigroup has reached more than 1 trillion U.S. dollars; in terms of operating income, the sales revenue of the Dow 30 companies in 2002 was about 1.8 trillion U.S. dollars, exceeding China’s GDP of 1.25 trillion U.S. dollars in the same year. Therefore, it is no exaggeration to say that blue chip companies are as rich as the country.

The stocks of companies in the pillar industries of the national economy are not necessarily blue chip stocks, but blue chip stocks are definitely not born in marginal industries.

The understanding of blue chip stocks cannot be limited to the word "share". It carries "industry and people's livelihood" and even "the glory and dream of the country". Therefore, blue chip stocks generally appear in the country's pillar industries, and blue chip companies are also industry leaders.

Some companies are operating very well and have excellent performance, such as "Small Commodity City", but judging from the nature of the industry in which they operate, they are definitely not blue chip stocks. Listed companies such as "Baosteel Co., Ltd." and "Air China" are in pillar industries such as steel and aerospace that are the national economy and people's livelihood, and they have the characteristics of blue-chip companies. In particular, China is still in the initial stage of industrialization, so it is easier for blue-chip companies to be born in the manufacturing industry. However, in the retail industry or catering service industry, blue-chip companies such as Wal-Mart and McDonald's can be seen abroad, but it is difficult to discover them domestically.

Blue-chip companies must also play the role of industry leaders and are the backbone and coordinating force of the industrial value chain and industrial supporting division of labor system. Not only in terms of scale, but also in terms of technical level and management level, they are representatives of this industry. For example, Baosteel has considerable weight in the industry in negotiating the price of raw material iron ore. And its plate products will also become a standard in this industry.

Blue chip companies, such as Enron Corp. of the United States

8 ways to distinguish

Small-cap stocks are not blue chip stocks

Generally speaking To put it bluntly, small-cap stocks are not blue-chip stocks. Because small-cap stocks are often controlled by a small number of investors, commonly known as "bookmakers," while blue-chip stocks have large circulation and market value, and ordinary investors can also actively participate, which makes it difficult to have "bookmakers" in the market. It can control this kind of stocks, so it has high liquidity and non-marketability.

Blue-chip stocks are not blue-chip stocks

Investors who experienced the market conditions in 1996 and 1997 found that the most disappointing product was blue-chip stocks. Hubei Xinghua fell, Sichuan Changhong's sword could no longer cut it, and its stock price was cut in half. However, blue-chip stocks are not necessarily blue-chip stocks. Blue-chip stocks reflect history; blue-chip stocks must not only look back on history: their performance should not be too bad, above average (in the screening below, it is limited to 0.20 yuan/share), but they must also look forward to the future. Without stable growth in future performance, raising the stock price is like building a high-rise building on the beach, which will eventually collapse. Therefore, growth cannot be forgotten.

Are the stocks of large companies blue chip stocks?

The stocks of large companies are not necessarily blue chip stocks, but blue chip stocks must be the stocks of large companies. Big companies are not necessarily good companies, but large scale is a necessary condition for becoming a blue-chip company. Blue-chip companies have received long-term attention and favor from bulk capital and mainstream capital in the capital market. As measured by indicators such as asset size, operating income, and company market value, the scale of the company is huge.

Blue chip stocks are not asset restructuring stocks

It is a general rule that the company's performance will be greatly improved after asset restructuring. But this growth is not that growth. The growth of blue chip stocks is reflected in the profit growth generated by the company's superior resources based on superior management.

When a company undergoes asset reorganization, we have to recognize it as the birth of a new economic entity. Its growth is reflected after the new entity is established, not between the transformation of old and new entities.

Blue chip stocks will not be diversified companies

A diversified company, especially a hodgepodge of diversification, will inevitably lead to the company not being able to devote its full efforts to every field and "comprehensive" Development equals mediocrity across the board.” Blue-chip stocks reflect the development of the entire macro-economy and reflect the basic characteristics of all walks of life. Therefore, they must have a large scale of operations and play an important role in the industry, playing a leading role in both technology and pricing. Such a company is destined to be a specialized operation, not a diversified operation, at least not a horizontal diversified operation.