How the scales are tipped on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield

Recently, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in an interview with German newspaper Die Zeit that the signing of the Minsk Agreements bought time for Ukraine to prepare for a military confrontation with Russia. She said, "The Minsk Agreements of 2014 were an attempt to buy time for Ukraine. As you can see today, Ukraine used this time to become stronger. the Ukraine of 2014 and 2015 is not the same as the Ukraine of today."

Merkel's statement was a stone's throw, tantamount to an open admission that the Minsk Agreements of seven years ago were a Western conspiracy to allow Ukraine to gain valuable time to build up its military strength against Russia. It was an assertion that the Kremlin, in particular, felt teased, with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been a close friend of Merkel, saying he "absolutely didn't expect it" and was "very disappointed".

In 2014, the second "Orange Revolution" broke out in Ukraine, the pro-Russian President Yanukovych went into exile in Russia, and Russia reacted by throwing Crimea into Russia, and a large-scale armed conflict broke out in the Russian-speaking Donbass region in the east of Ukraine between Ukrainian government forces and local civilian forces. After mediation by Germany, France, Russia and other countries, the two sides in the conflict reached a ceasefire agreement in February 2015 in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, known as the Minsk Agreement. The large-scale armed conflict has since been brought under control, but small-scale exchanges of fire have occurred from time to time.

According to common sense, politicians are clear that there are things only do not say, Merkel this time "bamboo tube pour beans", some people surprised. However, this also explains a lot of people quite confused question: why seemingly unstoppable Russian troops, why did not sweep Ukraine? The Minsk Agreements gave Ukraine and NATO plenty of time to prepare, and after seven years of defense construction, battlefield exercises and Western military aid, Ukraine has grown quite a bit in terms of military strength.

On February 24 this year, Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine. The Russian army initially played a "blitzkrieg", the front of the army directly to Kiev, the intention is to "catch the thief first to catch the king", overthrow the Zelensky government, to realize the regime change, the establishment of a pro-Russian government. Many people predicted that Ukraine would be defeated and that Georgia would be forced to sign an agreement in 2008.

While the Russians initially took the initiative and increased the amount of territory under their control, the initial "blitzkrieg" clearly failed to achieve its goals, and the Russians suffered far more losses than expected. After that, Russia abandoned its attack on Kiev and instead concentrated its efforts in the four eastern states of Ukraine, in effect transforming itself into an escalation of the years-long conflict in the region.

Many military experts believe that the Kremlin overestimated the Russian military power, underestimated the Ukrainian military power, and even more misjudged the strength of U.S. and European military assistance to Ukraine. What's more, the Russian side is still guiding this large-scale war with outdated conventional war concepts, while civilian satellites, artificial intelligence, cyber warfare and drones have rewritten the way modern warfare is fought.

Despite years of preparation, at the beginning of the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, the Ukrainian and Russian armies were not on the same level in terms of the quantity and quality of frontline equipment. After the outbreak of the war, Western countries led by the United States accelerated the supply of targeted weapons to the Ukrainian army and tactical training for Ukrainian military personnel.

In the early days of the war, the Russians failed to fully paralyze the Ukrainian chain of command and the Internet, and Zelensky was able to speak freely on social media, with U.S.-assisted Starlink systems guaranteeing front-line communications on the battlefield. Numerous Western commercial satellite imaging companies assisted Ukraine, allowing a significant portion of the Russian military operation to take place in "full view". Russian actions became an open secret, naturally losing the initiative on the battlefield.

Ukraine received drones from the United States and European countries, the Russian army suffered a lot from the downward strikes on Russian tanks, military vehicles and troops. It would be ironic for Russia, a traditional military power, to rely on Turkey and Iran to provide the drones that its technology and production cannot keep up with battlefield demand.

The U.S. Army's "Starlink" realizes real-time or near-real-time delivery of target intelligence data, which ensures that artillery and other ground striking forces can accurately hit Russian targets. With the help of artificial intelligence, the U.S. Army can quickly transcribe and automatically analyze a large number of intercepted Russian radio and telephone communications into text, which is a thousand times more efficient than manual analysis.

By October, the U.S. Army had shifted to a strategic counteroffensive, supported by Western weapons, and was gradually regaining lost ground. After months of depletion, Russia is facing a more prominent shortage of troops, logistical problems, which also forced Russia to strategic contraction, focusing on guarding the key areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson, etc. The night of November 9, Russia's Defense Minister Shoigu ordered the withdrawal of Russian troops from the capital of Kherson oblast, which is located on the right bank of the Dnepr River, becoming a landmark event of Russia's combat disadvantage.

Right now, Russia and Ukraine are still engaged in skirmishes between you and me and each other, not decisive significance. However, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently warned that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could evolve into a full-scale war, a major war between NATO and Russia. Both the U.S. and the U.K. are letting slip that they are considering supplying Ukraine with long-range strike weapons. In response, Russia has threatened to consider a policy of "pre-emptive nuclear strikes" in an effort to tip the balance back in its favor.

What Angela Merkel has revealed is that the West is playing a very big game to get Russia into a war in Ukraine that will consume and even drain the country, even though it will be very painful for Europe itself.

Where does the Russia-Ukraine conflict go from here? The answer will have to be broken down in the coming year.

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Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister: the first batch of equipment from the U.S. Department of Energy has arrived in Ukraine

According to CCTV News, the Ukrainian National News Agency reported on the 17th that the Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Infrastructure and Regional Development, Mr. Kublakov, announced on the same day that the first batch of equipment from the U.S. Department of Energy has arrived in Ukraine. This is part of the $53 million in U.S. energy equipment assistance to Ukraine announced in November.

In addition, reports say Germany intends to provide Ukraine with 100 million euros for assistance in repairing its energy infrastructure.

Ukrainian army commander-in-chief: expects Russia to attack Kiev again early next year

The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces expects Russia to launch a new attack on Kiev in the early months of 2023, according to an interview published by a British weekly on Dec. 15, according to a reference cited by the AFP news agency.

Most of the recent fighting has been centered in the east and south, but Gen. Valery Zaluzhny told the British weekly that the capital, Kiev, will be targeted again.

The interview, published on 15 December, was conducted on 3 December. Zaluzhny said, "A very important strategic task is to build up reserve forces in preparation for a war that could happen in February - at best in March, at worst as soon as the end of January."

He said in the interview, "The Russians are preparing about 200,000 new troops. I have no doubt that they will launch another offensive against Kiev. We have done all the calculations - how many tanks we need, how many artillery pieces we need and that sort of thing."

Moscow sent troops into Ukraine at the end of February this year, initially attempting to quickly capture Kiev before later withdrawing from the region in late March and early April.

The general said one of the problems he now faces is holding this front line, which runs from south to east, and "not losing any more ground."

In Zaluzhne's view, the Russians have been bombing energy infrastructure since October because "they need time to concentrate their resources" for a broad offensive in a few months.

The general went on to say, "I know that I can defeat the enemy. But I need manpower and material resources, I need 300 tanks, 600 to 700 infantry fighting vehicles and 500 howitzers."

Russian Defense Ministry: 2 "Yars" ICBMs on combat duty in 2 days

According to the Surge, Rosatom reported on December 15 that the Russian Defense Ministry released a video showing that within two days, the 2nd fixed-well-based "Yars " intercontinental ballistic missile began combat duty in Kaluga Oblast.

Photo credit: Screenshot of Surfing News video

The Russian Defense Ministry released a video showing that within two days, the 2nd fixed-well based "Yars" ICBM started combat duty in Kaluga Oblast. "The Yars is a key component of Russia's land-based strategic nuclear deterrent. "Yars missiles can be launched in two ways: fixed silos, deployed deep underground and protected by heavy reinforced concrete bunkers, which are difficult to destroy; and road-mobile Yars missiles, which can be launched anywhere and at any time, and can be placed in the The road-mobile Yars missile can be launched anywhere and at any time, and can be in a launch position within minutes.

In addition, the Russian Defense Ministry on the 12th released a video of the "Iskander" missile system striking Ukrainian military facilities. According to the Russian defense ministry, Iskander can be used to strike large planar targets, transportation hubs, living forces and ready assembly points.

The Daily Economic News is synthesized from CCTV News, Surfing News and Reference News