March Auto Market Analysis (Full Version): March Production and Sales Scale Recovered to Above 1 Million Units

March auto market analysis (full version): March production and sales scale back to more than a million units, although doubled in ringgit, but year-on-year is still plummeting, exports year-on-year slight increase into the bright spot

According to statistics released by China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), in March 2020, the rate of decline in automobile production and sales narrowed; passenger car decline is greater than the industry as a whole; the rate of commercial vehicle year-on-year decline has significantly shrunk; new energy vehicles "nine consecutive declines"; exports increased slightly year-on-year. In the first quarter, the cumulative automobile production and sales year-on-year decline of more than 40%; new energy vehicles fell more than 50.0%; commercial vehicle exports fell significantly more than the industry as a whole.

The key - point - quick - overview

Auto overall: March sales of 1.430 million units, down 43.3%; January-March sales of 3.672 million units, down 42.4%

Passenger cars: March sales of 1.043 million units, down 48.4%; January-March sales of 2.877 million units, down 45.4%

Commercial vehicles: March sales of 388,000 units, down 22.6%

Commercial vehicles: March sales of 388,000 units, down 22.6%

Commercial vehicles: March sales of 380,000 units, down 22.6%

Commercial vehicles: March sales of 380,000 units, down 22.6%, down 22.6%, down 22.6%, down 22.6%. Commercial vehicles: March sales of 388,000 units, down 22.6%; January-March sales of 794,000 units, down 28.4%

New energy vehicles: March sales of 53,000 units, down 53.2%; January-March sales of 114,000 units, down 56.4%

Automobile exports: March exports of 91,000 units, an increase of 0.8%; January-March exports of 204,000 units, a decline of 11.5%

Overall production and sales

March production and sales rebounded sharply, year-on-year decline narrowed significantly, the commercial vehicle market outperformed the passenger car

With the domestic new Crown pneumonia outbreak under effective control, the production and operation of enterprises have resumed,? The domestic automobile market gradually recovered from the trough in February. The production end, the enterprise resumption of work resumption of production has improved significantly, according to the CAC on the 23 enterprise groups latest resumption of work resumption of production survey statistics, vehicle production bases are fully resumed, the employee return rate of 86%, resumption of production reaches 75% of the average level in 2019. However, unlike the rapid resumption of work and production on the production side, part of the market demand on the consumption side is still in a suppressed state because the epidemic has not yet completely ended. However, enterprise sales in March have been significantly better than in February. With the gradual implementation of relevant national policies, as well as local governments have introduced policies to promote automobile consumption, the automobile market will accelerate the recovery.

Despite a significant rebound in auto production and sales in March, overall higher than previously expected, but compared to the same period last year, the month's production and sales still showed a relatively large decline, the negative impact of the epidemic is still continuing. According to the latest statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), in March, automobile production and sales were more than 1.40 million, reaching 1.422 million and 1.430 million, respectively, an increase of more than three times the year-on-year decline of more than 40%, the rate of decline compared to February significantly narrowed. From the overall situation in the first quarter, automobile production and sales of 3.474 million units and 3.672 million units, down 45.2% and 42.4% year-on-year, the rate of decline with the first two months is roughly equivalent. Among them, the cumulative sales in the first quarter fell to the lowest record in recent years. Both monthly and cumulatively, the decline in passenger car production and sales continued to outpace the industry's overall level. (See charts 1 and 2)

The rate of decline in production and sales slowed down significantly in March, and the decline in the four market segments remained unchanged, with SUVs performing slightly better

With the accelerating progress of the resumption of work and production by enterprises, the performance of passenger cars was significantly better than that of the previous month, with a sharp increase in the chain of events, but the year-on-year rate continued to decline at a faster pace, and the negative effects of the epidemic in the passenger car market have not yet diminished significantly. The latest statistics from CCA show that in March, the production and sales of passenger cars amounted to 1.049 million units and 1.043 million units, representing a 4.4 and 3.7 times increase from the previous month, and a year-on-year decline of 49.9% and 48.4%, which was higher than the overall decline in automobile sales and production.From January to March, the production and sales of passenger cars amounted to 2.684 million units and 2.877 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 48.7% and 45.4%, and the rate of decline increased 0.6 percentage points and increased 0.6 percentage points and increased 0.6 percentage points from February. expanded by 0.6 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points.

Specific models, in March in the main models of passenger cars, compared with the previous month, four types of models production and sales were rapid growth, in which the growth rate of cross passenger cars is more significant; compared with the same period of the previous year, four types of passenger car production and sales are still rapidly declining, in which the MPV decline rate is the most advanced; from January to March in the main models of passenger vehicles, compared with the same period of the previous year, the production and sales of four types of models were down more than 30.0%, except for SUVs, the remaining three types of passenger cars fell by more than half, and higher than the overall level of passenger cars, of which MPVs fell more significantly. (See charts 4 and 5)

March year-on-year decline in production and sales were more than 20%, all market segments were down, heavy trucks relatively strong performance

Since passenger cars and commercial vehicles belong to two consumer areas, the degree of impact by the epidemic will also be different. With the nationwide epidemic weakened, the provinces and cities, traffic, passenger and freight transportation gradually returned to normal, as well as the recent traditional infrastructure, new infrastructure projects have started, no doubt on the commercial vehicles, especially trucks market to form a favorable effect, so the March commercial vehicle production and sales decline is generally lower than that of passenger cars, especially heavy trucks performance is relatively better. In addition, on March 31, the State Council executive meeting to determine the central financial to take the award in lieu of subsidies to support the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and other key areas to phase out the national three and the following emission standards of diesel trucks policy, will also make the heavy-duty and light trucks to get more market business opportunities.

According to the latest statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), in March, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were completed at 373,000 and 388,000 units respectively, an increase of more than three times the ringgit, and a year-on-year decline of 20.3% and 22.6% respectively.

From January to March, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were completed at 790,000 and 794,000 units respectively, and a year-on-year decline of 28.7% and 28.4% respectively, and the rate of decline was narrowed 6.1 percentage points and 4.8 percentage points compared with that of February. The decline was 6.1 percentage points and 4.8 percentage points smaller than that of February.

Sub-model production and sales situation, in March, in the main models of commercial vehicles, compared with the previous month, trucks and buses production and sales were rapid growth, of which the trucks growth rate is more significant; compared with the same period last year, trucks and buses production and sales were down. In the van and bus sub-models, the production and sales are rapid growth, year-on-year is still down, but the rate of decline than in February significantly narrowed. 1-3 months, the van and bus production and sales is still a rapid decline. In the main models of trucks, compared with the same period last year, only heavy truck production and sales year-on-year decline than the industry, the other three types of truck production and sales decline is still obvious. In the main models of buses, compared with the same period last year, the three major types of bus production and sales were down significantly, of which the year-on-year decline in light buses is lower than the overall level of the industry, the performance of large buses is relatively weak. (See charts 7 and 8)

March sales year-on-year "nine consecutive declines", the industry as a whole and the segment hit a new high in the first quarter of the single-month sales

Since the second half of last year, subsidies for standard regression, new energy automobile market sales have begun to decline. And after the darkest moment of the epidemic in February this year, the new energy vehicle market is gradually recovering in March, production and sales growth rate is rapid, year-on-year decline than in February also narrowed, so that new energy vehicles have been the ninth consecutive month of negative growth. The industry generally believes that the subsidy slopes lead to an increase in the cost of car companies, consumers to buy a car costs are also "rising", directly weakening the enthusiasm of consumers to buy, thus further affecting the sales promotion. CCA said that in the first quarter, regardless of fuel or new energy vehicles, the main reason for the decline in market sales is the impact of the new crown epidemic, and during the period of the net car operation setback is also one of the reasons for the low sales of new energy vehicles.

According to the latest statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the production and sales of new energy vehicles (excluding Tesla) were completed in March with 50,000 and 53,000 vehicles respectively, up 3.8 times and 3.0 times from the previous year, and down 56.9% and 53.2% year-on-year, with the rate of decline narrowing by over 20% compared with that of February. In the first quarter, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 105,000 and 114,000 units respectively, down 60.2% and 56.4% year-on-year, with the rate of decline narrowing by 3.6 percentage points and 3.1 percentage points compared with February.

From the point of view of power characteristics, pure electric is the main technology route, accounting for about 75%. in March, the pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles production and sales of the chain were a substantial increase, year-on-year still showed a relatively rapid decline. In that month, the pure electric vehicle production and sales were completed 38,000 and 40,000, down 58.5% and 55.6% year-on-year; plug-in hybrid vehicle production and sales were completed 11,000 and 13,000, down 50.2% and 44.1% year-on-year; fuel cell vehicle production and sales were completed 38 and 36, of which the production increased by 5.6% year-on-year, sales were flat for the same period. In addition, in the first quarter of this year, pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles continued to decline year-on-year rate of decline faster, of which the pure electric vehicle production and sales were completed 77,000 and 85,000, down 61.8% and 58.6% year-on-year; plug-in hybrid vehicle production and sales were completed 28,000 and 29,000, down 55.0% and 48.5% year-on-year; fuel cell vehicle production and sales were completed 183 and 206, respectively; fuel cell vehicle production and sales were completed 183 and 206, respectively; fuel cell vehicle production and sales were completed 183 and 206, respectively; fuel cell vehicle sales were flat for the same period. The production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were completed 183 units and 207 units respectively, a year-on-year decline of 19.7% and 7.2%.

From the point of view of model characteristics, passenger cars are the absolute main force, accounting for about 89%. In March this year, the new energy passenger car production and sales were completed 44,000 and 47,000 units, down 59.2% and 55.7% year-on-year, respectively; new energy commercial vehicle production and sales were completed 0.5 million and 0.6 million, down 18.6% and 17.0% year-on-year, respectively.1-3, the new energy passenger car production and sales were completed 94,000 and 102,000, down 61.5% and 57.4%, respectively; new energy commercial vehicle production and sales were completed 94,000 and 102,000, down 61.5% and 57.4%, respectively; new energy commercial vehicle production and sales are down 19.7% and 7%, respectively. 57.4%; new energy commercial vehicle production and sales of 11,000 units and 13,000 units respectively, down 44.1% and 45.5% year-on-year. (See charts 12 and 13)

March export volume and year-on-year growth rate both set a new record for the first quarter, with passenger cars performing significantly better than the industry as a whole

With the intensifying spread of the new Crown pneumonia outbreak overseas, which has led to suppressed demand in the global automotive consumer market, the export of Chinese-branded automobiles and parts has been hampered as well. According to the CAC statistics show that in March this year, automobile enterprises exported 91,000 units, an increase of 103.8% from the previous year, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year, in the situation of the general market continued to fall, exports can also be improved, which the contribution of the passenger car is indispensable; In addition, in the first quarter of this year, automobile enterprises exported 204,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 11.5%.

From the point of view of the characteristics of the car models, in March, passenger cars exported 68,000 units, an increase of 97.6%, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%; commercial vehicles exported 23,000 units, an increase of 125.3%, a year-on-year decline of 33.8%. In the first quarter, the cumulative exports of passenger cars totaled 154,000 units, up 5.3% year-on-year; the cumulative exports of commercial vehicles totaled 50,000 units, down 40.7% year-on-year. (See Chart 17)

Conclusion

Short-term Recovery Expected, Long-term Steady Improvement

While the recent domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled, the trend of normalization of the prevention and control work is certain, coupled with the ongoing global epidemic, which has hindered the recovery of consumer confidence to a certain extent. Meanwhile, the epidemic has forced some small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), especially export-oriented exporters, to shut down, and the income of employees has dropped, resulting in impaired spending power. However, with the resumption of work and production advancing in an orderly manner, the order of life and economic activities are gradually improving from the impact of the epidemic, the overall performance of the automobile market in March exceeded expectations, and the industry is expected to continue the recovery of consumption, said the CAC.

In recent stages, the domestic around one after another to promote automobile consumption, especially new energy vehicle consumption, and ushered in one after another, including restrictions on the purchase of unbundled such as increasing the quota of the car purchase index, stimulate consumption upgrading category of the purchase of the purchase of subsidies for replacement as well as the relaxation of the threshold of access to a number of good policies from the demand side, the supply side of the automobile market to promote the growth of steady growth. As for the future direction of the auto market, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) expects that China's auto market will usher in a greater recovery in the second quarter, but it is difficult to recover to the level of the same period last year; if only on the domestic factors affecting the automotive industry, with the successive introduction of various supportive and promotional policies, combined with the industry's positive efforts of the automobile industry is expected to recover in the second half or even exceed the level of the same period last year, but even then it is still difficult to make up for the losses incurred by the epidemic in the first quarter and the first half. However, even so, it is still difficult to make up for the losses caused by the epidemic in the first quarter and the first half of the year, and the uncertainty of the progress of the prevention and control of overseas epidemics will still affect the annual automobile market.

This article was written by the author of the car home, does not represent the views of the car home position.