What is the sex ratio of China's post-70s population?

The fifth national population census shows that the sex ratio of men to women at birth is 116.9:100, and in five provinces the ratio is even higher than 130:100. In Hainan Province, the sex ratio at birth is 135.64:100, the highest in the country.

According to projections, according to today's infant sex ratio, by 2020, the number of men of marriageable age in China will be 30 million to 40 million more than that of women, which means that on average, one out of five men will not be able to find a spouse. In other words, tens of millions of men will face a bachelor's dilemma in 20 years.

If the word "single" represents a sense of style, then the word "bachelor" has more of a helpless flavor.

Tong Feiyu, who just celebrated his 25th birthday, named his blog "The Bachelor". The "80s" generation of Shaanxi boys do not want to get married too soon, but his parents have been happy to introduce him to his girlfriend.

At the urging of his parents, "finding a wife" has become an inevitable option in the life of Tong Feiyu. However, he was distressed: it is more and more difficult to find a wife.

"Difficult" from the woman put forward more and more high requirements, in addition to height, appearance of these congenital conditions, income, economic base and other acquired conditions are more demanding. But "80" Tong Feiyu work less than 5 years, "have a car and a house" conditions for choosing a spouse so that his self-esteem is frustrated, girls of the same age are more inclined to choose the older, there is a certain economic basis of men, and "80" Tong Feiyu "Tong Feiyu can only face this embarrassing reality.

This girl is not easy to marry with boys of the same age phenomenon, by the Shaanxi Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, Sociology Institute of the experts called "male excess marriage squeeze", in the final analysis, is caused by the gender ratio of men and women disproportionate.

In 20 years, China will have 30 million bachelors?

While Tong Feiyu is blogging about his woes, the Shaanxi Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, Institute of Sociology, "Shaanxi Provincial Population Strategy Study" group is analyzing the situation of many young people in the same situation as Tong Feiyu. Jiang Bo, deputy director of the Institute of Sociology at the Shaanxi Academy of Social Sciences, said: "As the 'post-80s' generation enters the marriageable age, the problem of gender imbalance between men and women has come to the fore, manifesting itself in the fact that there are more men than women. It is not easy for young men of marriageable age to find a marriage partner, which is a reflection of the imbalance in the sex ratio of infants and young children more than 20 years ago. The results of the survey on the sex ratio of infants and young children aged 0-4 years now reflect a problem that is even more serious than the present one. This means that decades from now, China will face a serious situation of gender ratio imbalance."

Prof. Qiao Xiaochun of the Population Research Institute of the Renmin University of China told the Democracy and Law Times that the sex ratio at birth is a statistical indicator reflecting the state of the gender structure at the time of the birth of babies, i.e., how many male babies there are at the time of the birth of 100 female babies. Without human interference, the sex ratio of babies at birth is basically the same in all countries of the world, generally in the range of 104-107, that is, for every 100 female babies born, the number of male babies is 104-107. In other words, the sex ratio at birth is within the normal range of 102-107. However, since the mid-1980s, China's sex ratio at birth has begun to appear out of proportion, and has become more and more serious since the 1990s.Since the 1990s, China's structural contradiction in population has become more and more prominent, especially the sex ratio at birth has continued to rise.

According to the 2006 Population and Family Planning Statistical Report of the Shaanxi Provincial Family Planning Commission, the sex ratio at birth in Shaanxi Province is seriously out of balance, with the fifth population census data in 2005 being 125.15 (normal value of 103-107), and the national 1% population census data in 2005 being 130.7. Zhang Dongwu, deputy director of the Shaanxi Provincial Family Planning Commission, said that the sex ratio at birth is one of the highest in the country, and that the sex ratio is one of the highest in the world. Wu said that the high sex ratio at birth has had a serious negative impact on social stability and harmony. Coupled with the increase in the number of women in their prime reproductive years (20-29 years old) and the aging of the population, the work of population planning has entered an unprecedentedly complex period.

The disproportionate population ratio is not a problem in Shaanxi Province alone. According to the fifth national census, the sex ratio of men and women at birth is 116.9:100. Shaanxi Province is one of the 11 provinces in China where the sex ratio at birth is higher than 120, and there are five provinces in China where the sex ratio at birth is even higher than 130. In Hainan Province, the sex ratio of male to female births was 135.64:100, the highest level in the country, the sex ratio of births has remained high, and has become the "oldest problem" in Hainan's family planning work.

The results of the fifth national census also showed that not only the agricultural population of the sex ratio at birth is higher, the non-agricultural population of the sex ratio at birth is also on the rise. In some provinces, not only is the sex ratio of second and multiple births higher, but the sex ratio of first births is also on the high side.

Some people have done this calculation, according to today's infant sex ratio, by 2020, China's men of marriageable age will be 30 million to 40 million more than women, which means that an average of five men will not find a spouse, that is to say, 20 years later, there will be tens of millions of men to become bachelors.

This estimate is not alarming. Zhang Weiqing, director of the National Population and Family Planning Commission (NPFPC), said in an interview, "We are also making calculations. We feel that if we take measures now to curb the momentum of the rising sex ratio at birth, by 2020, there may be more than 24 million more men than women in China."

The problem of China's population ratio has also attracted the attention of the international community. Not long ago, the United States published a book, "The Lightbringer," which said the problem of unbalanced population sex ratio will be a huge challenge that China may face in the future. Prof. Qiao Xiaochun of the Population Research Institute of Renmin University of China said that although our scholars do not agree with the views of the book to be rebutted, but there is no doubt that the problem of imbalance in the sex ratio has seriously damaged the international image of China.

The bachelor is not just a marriage problem

"The bachelor, not just a personal problem, is also a social problem; not just a marriage problem, is also a social reproduction problem." This is one of the main points of view of the population strategy research group of Shaanxi Academy of Social Sciences. Jiang Bo, deputy director, said, "The imbalance of the gender ratio between men and women, the first manifestation of the marriage problem, the impact of course, is the social stability of the state."

The group believes that the imbalance of the population ratio first brings the problem of marriage gender squeeze. If the abnormally high sex ratio at birth can not be effectively curbed, the marriage squeeze of male excess will become more and more serious. This may produce a symptom of the "old man, young wife" increase.

Prof. Li Ruojian, director of the Population Research Institute at Sun Yat-sen University in Guangdong Province, believes that in another 15 to 20 years, a certain sex ratio imbalance in the age group, part of the young men can not find a partner, but only to the next age group of young women to find. So the cycle continues, the formation of the male age at first marriage is delayed, the female age at first marriage is advanced, the age difference between the couple may be between five or six years, or even greater, "the old man less wife" phenomenon will no longer be an isolated phenomenon.

Prof. Li Ruojian said, there is a theory that the shortage of female population can be solved through the marriage age difference to solve the problem of future marriage age population. But with the sex ratio of the infant population continuing to rise, this structural and cumulative imbalance makes it difficult to imagine the feasibility of a solution whereby the male population can find mates in the female population younger than themselves. This is because the demographic conflict between the "big brother cohort" and the "little brother cohort" for mates will intensify.

The second impact symptom is that, due to the "fewer women and more men", young women of the same age have invariably increased their marriageability with young men of the same age, which is not conducive to curbing the improper trend of "worshiping gold" in the society. The third symptom is that it is easy to breed immoral and ugly social phenomena such as buying and selling of marriages and abduction of women, and the risk of family and social instability is increasing.

Tian Xueyuan, an academic member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) and vice president of the China Population Society, believes that in addition to the marriage gender squeeze problem itself, the imbalance of the sex ratio at birth will also produce the employment squeeze problem. In the next one or two decades, the male labor surplus, male labor employment will become more difficult, and then produce employment gender squeeze, and will produce a certain amount of unemployable male groups, which will bring a great impact on social stability.

In addition, if the sex ratio at birth is not corrected, it will also bring the problem of pension security structure. China has now entered an aging society, and given the current high sex ratio at birth, Vice President Tian Xueyuan predicts that the excessively low sex ratio in old age will increase 40 years from now.

According to the research group, the specific reasons for the gender imbalance in Shaanxi Province and the country as a whole are different, but the underlying reasons are all related to the traditional concept of "emphasizing men over women". From a certain point of view, it can be said that the higher the sex ratio at birth in a region, the more serious the degree of selective abortion of female fetuses in the region, and the more serious the degree of preference for male children in the region.

According to the survey, the sex ratio at birth in Shaanxi Province is slightly higher than the national level, but regional differences are also relatively obvious, with northern Shaanxi Province having the highest, Guanzhong the second, and southern Shaanxi Province the lowest. The gender imbalance mainly occurs in the rural areas below the county, such as Qishan County, Shaanxi Province, the planned second birth of newborns male and female sex ratio as high as 253.5:100, this county within the town of Qinghua Nanyang Village, Jiao six villages, Sun Jia Village, Pucun Town, Lu Jiazhuang Village, Fengming Town, Lingtou Village, Yongchuan Town, off the original village of the village of the village of Xiaoying Village and other seven villages since 2001 for three consecutive years of the birth of the second birth of the plan was not even a girl.

The Shaanxi Provincial Population Strategy Research Group found that the direct cause of the increase in the proportion of births from the "high sex ratio at birth", and this phenomenon will intensify if it is not controlled. This is because the millions of one-child groups that have been formed since the 1970s will enter the peak marriage and childbearing period, and these people will be able to give birth to two children according to the policy, creating a return to policy births, which will inevitably lead to a structural rebound in the number of births. The illegal fetal gender identification now used will be the market generally locked in the second child birth.

The research group also coincides with the situation in Hainan Province. According to the Hainan Provincial Family Planning Commission survey, Hainan born baby sex ratio imbalance presents three major features: First, the policy provides for fewer children can be born, couples get the opportunity to have a boy is smaller, they want to have a boy the stronger the will; Second, the policy allows for the birth of a smaller number of population groups, the stronger the willingness to give birth to a boy, the higher the sex ratio of babies at birth; Third, the population groups with a high social status, high economic income The third is the population group with high social status and economic income, which has exchanged power or money with biological technology when identifying and choosing the sex of the fetus, resulting in a high sex ratio of babies at birth.

Professor Qiao Xiaochun analyzed that the reason for the high sex ratio at birth in Hainan is also relatively representative. Some of the towns and rural families, because they did not have a boy led to couples turn against each other, the family broke up. As a result, illegal fetal sex identification is prevalent.

On the deeper causes of the birth ratio imbalance, Director Zhang Weiqing analyzed three reasons. He said: "The first reason is the influence of traditional culture, China pursues a traditional culture based on Confucian morality, where men are superior to women, and filial piety is the most important thing. In addition, there is a family concept in the countryside, the male child can pass on the generation, the girl married out is splashed out of the water. The solution to this problem can never be achieved overnight. The second reason, I think, is that our social security system is lagging behind. Let's say a rural family gives birth to a girl. What will happen to the elderly after the girl marries? The productivity of rural areas is low, so who is going to take care of him when he grows old? The third reason is that our country as a whole lacks effective policy measures to promote the basic national policy of equality between men and women. For example, employment discrimination and other problems are still relatively serious."

From a medical technology point of view, the application of ultrasound offers the possibility of sex selection, and the legal cost of using ultrasound for illegal sex selection is even cheaper than the medical cost. Prof. Li Ruojian, director of the Population Research Institute of Sun Yat-sen University in Guangdong, said that since ultrasound was introduced into China in the mid-1980s, it became easy to know the sex of the fetus in advance, and there are no restrictions on artificially induced abortions in the country, so choosing the sex of the fetus became possible. Fetal sex determination is carried out illegally, and the pregnancy is terminated if it is a male or a female. the cost of the ultrasound and the cost of the induced abortion surgery is only a thousand dollars, which makes the medical cost of gender selection relatively low.

"In fact, China's laws provide for the prohibition of fetal sex identification provisions, many special laws related to the protection of mothers and children, but the current reality in China is that the illegal cost of illegal fetal sex identification is very low." Renmin University of China Law School Professor Liu Feiyu said.

Prof. Liu Feiyu said that the legal implication of the penalty rules are the Population and Family Planning Law, Article 35 and Article 36 states. If the illegal income is more than 10,000 yuan, a fine of more than two times the illegal income and less than six times the illegal income; if there is no illegal income or the illegal income is less than 10,000 yuan, a fine of more than 10,000 yuan and less than 30,000 yuan. But compared to the huge economic benefits, this economic penalty still can not effectively curb the illegal fetal sex identification.

In addition, Prof. Liu Feiyu said, the law stipulates that "if the circumstances are serious, the original licensing authority shall revoke the certificate of practice; if a crime is constituted, criminal responsibility shall be investigated according to law." However, there is no provision in the criminal law to combat the implementation of non-medical needs of fetal sex identification. The provisions of the relevant articles of the Criminal Law apply only to those who are not qualified to practice. But in fact, some doctors or units with practicing qualifications are the very subjects who carry out illegal and criminal acts.

A multi-pronged approach to reversing the problem of too many men and too few women

How to effectively address this issue is also one of the projects of the National Population Strategy Research Group. According to the survey, in response to the status quo of "low-cost gender selection", many attempts have been made in various aspects of gender selection. Director Zhang Weiqing said that the National Population and Family Planning Commission and the Ministry of Finance*** are now working together to develop a system of incentives and assistance for some rural family planning families; for rural families with only one child and families with two daughters, each of whose parents are 60 years old or older, each of them receives incentives and assistance of no less than 600 yuan per year, which averages out to 50 yuan per month, so that couples can receive 1,200 yuan. In this way through social security measures to curb gender preferences.

The practice in Hainan Province is that from June 2003 onwards, the system of induced abortion by voucher has been uniformly implemented. No institution is allowed to carry out more than medium-term artificial termination of pregnancy without a surgical license issued by the administrative department of family planning at or above the county level, or by a health care institution at or above the county level.

Information from the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Health, the city of Shenzhen, in order to implement the provisions of the ban on fetal sex identification, the introduction of a management approach, the provisions of which are equipped with "ultrasound" and chromosome-specific equipment for health care or family planning technical service institutions, are required to sign a statement of responsibility not to engage in the identification of the sex of the fetus, and, in the event of a violation, will be vigorously pursued! In case of violation, the parties and legal persons will be severely investigated for their responsibilities. And increase the reporting link, the report of illegal identification of fetal sex by the verification of the truth, to give the informant material incentives.

Shaanxi Province for the "symptoms and root causes", bidding for a special study of the subject, put forward a three-phase systematic planning. 2006 to 2010 for the first phase of the governance work, this stage to behavioral constraints on the mechanism, and efforts to eliminate violations of the rights of female infants and the survival of the girl, to curb the momentum of the increase in the sex ratio at birth; 2011 to 2015 for the first phase of the governance work. The second phase, from 2011 to 2015, and the third phase, from 2016 to 2020, will focus on improving the system, forming an effective multi-sectoral cooperation mechanism, and expanding and deepening the "Care for Girls" campaign.

In addition, there have been increasing calls for the enactment of provisions on criminal liability for illegal fetal sex determination. Director Zhang Weiqing once said at a working meeting, "We will strive to add relevant provisions in the revision of the Criminal Law, and increase the strength of the law to crack down on the identification of the sex of the fetus that is not medically necessary and the artificial termination of pregnancy by selective sex."

The National People's Congress (NPC) deputy and Chairman of the Federation of Returned Overseas Chinese in Jiangsu Province, Yu Meilan, has proposed to the National People's Congress (NPC) to formulate legislation to prohibit sex-selective termination of pregnancy as soon as possible, calling for special legislation to be enacted as soon as possible to improve the provisions of the Criminal Liability Act.

It is understood that a number of members of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC) in the group to consider the draft amendments to the Criminal Law (Fifth) recommended that the relevant provisions of the Criminal Law be amended as soon as possible. At present, the legal profession tends to modify the relevant provisions of the criminal law on two points: first, clearly stipulate the implementation of non-medical needs of fetal sex identification and sex-selective artificial termination of pregnancy and other violations; second, clear regardless of whether the qualification of licensed doctors, as long as the violation of the relevant laws, can become the subject of the crime.

The experts also specifically suggested that the new provisions should be forward-looking. This is because the technology to separate the X and Y chromosomes is now available. If this technology is used for human beings, it may enable the mother to directly carry a male fetus, so the regulations should not only prohibit the use of ultrasound for fetal sex identification, but also strictly prohibit the use of various biotechnological means to disrupt the gender balance of the fetus.

Director Zhang Weiqing said that in the face of 20 years later, China will have tens of millions of bachelors, competent family planning work for many years, he can not be easy, both for the individual and society, this is not an easy topic.