Has the World Cup effect appeared? The overall rebound of TV panels hit a record low.

With the opening of the World Cup, the demand for watching football matches has surged, and large-screen high-definition multi-function TVs have ushered in a wave of enthusiasm. Under the strong terminal demand, TV panels have taken the lead in sounding the horn of "stopping falling and rebounding"-after successfully getting rid of the five-quarter decline in June+10, 5438, the price of all sizes of openings was raised this month.

According to the data released by WitsView today, unlike PC and laptop panels that maintain the original price/price reduction, the price of TV panels rose across the board in late 10. Including 65_, 55_, 43_ and 32_ TV panels, the prices of panels of all sizes have increased compared with the previous period and last month, among which 32_ TV panels have the highest increase, reaching 7.4%.

Beijing time165438+1October 2 1, the 2022 Qatar World Cup officially opened. The organization pointed out that in the past, the World Cup events played a certain role in promoting the sales of black investment and upgrading the product structure.

Domestic data also verify the fiery degree of demand for TV (especially big-screen TV) for "watching the ball at home". For example, in this year's "Double Eleven", the sales volume of offline 8K TVs in Suning.cn increased by 183%, and the growth of high-end TVs above 10,000 yuan doubled. "Large size and high resolution can better restore the details of the stadium, and large-screen TVs such as 75_ and 85_ are welcomed by young fans because of their higher cost performance," the relevant person in charge of Suning.cn said in an interview.

Besides watching the World Cup, TV price reduction is another key that users favor.

Recently, on the network e-commerce platform, the price of multi-brand 55_ TV is above 1000 yuan, and the price of small TV of 32 _ 40 _ is above several hundred yuan; In offline stores, the incentives are also increasing. The data shows that some 85_ TVs even dropped more than 3,000 yuan.

_ The grain production rate of panel factories hit a record low, and the demand side ushered in more recovery momentum.

In the short term, the second half of the year is the traditional peak season for consumer electronics. In addition to the World Cup and other events, overseas "Black Five" and China "Double 1 1" promotional activities, terminal manufacturers' spring festival stocking and new product release are also potential kinetic energy for demand side to pick up. At the same time, the retail price of TV sets has dropped to a low level, pushing users to replace the original small-sized old models with larger-sized TVs.

In the medium and long term, analysts believe that the large-scale trend is the source of abundant incremental demand, and the long-term annualized growth rate of LCD TV shipment area is expected to remain above 4%. Mini LED is another driving force for product upgrading and demand improvement.

On the supply side, the agency reported last week that the productivity of panel manufacturers has fallen to a historical low since the financial crisis, and panel inventory is expected to return to normal water level.

According to the data of CINNOResearch, the overall production capacity of panel factory rebounded to about 65% in 10 this year. It is expected that 1 1 will increase by about 5 percentage points in June, but 1 will decline to some extent in February. It is estimated that the production capacity of the entire global TFT-LCD panel production line in Q4 will be controlled below 70%.

Generally speaking, GF Securities and Great Wall Securities pointed out that the panel industry demand will usher in marginal changes, and it is expected to start a new rotation cycle after the epidemic in 2023. CITIC Securities predicts that in the short term, the reduction of stocking and crop transportation in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to drive the inventory level to be healthy, supply and demand will gradually balance, and prices are expected to stabilize and rebound. In the medium and long term, it is expected that the pattern of large-size panels will remain unchanged, and the price is expected to stabilize in the future, fluctuating slightly with the seasonal changes.

However, it is worth noting that, as mentioned above, WitsView data shows that 165438+1late October, only the price of TV panels rose across the board, while the original price of PC and laptop panels was maintained/lowered.

TrendForce also reminds people of the risk of declining terminal shipments. The agency said that in the fourth quarter, global laptop shipments are likely to drop to 42.9 million units, down 7.2% from the previous month and 32.3% from the same period last year, even lower than the level in the same period before the epidemic.

In addition, market demand is affected by negative factors such as inventory adjustment, Russia-Ukraine conflict and high inflation. The agency further lowered its forecast of notebook market shipments in 2022 to 654.38+89 billion units, down 23% year-on-year, and shipments in the first half of the year accounted for 53:47, which was the first time in the past decade that it was "top-heavy".