The Logic of "Transformation and Development" —— Talking from Dongguan

Every city has its own development logic. Rostow's theory of economic growth stages and Lewis's theory of unlimited supply of labor force show that urban development has its stages, and the emphasis of each stage is different. Rostow's theory also points out that the per capita GDP of 3000 dollars is the watershed between traditional society and modern society, and the pulling effect of investment and export on GDP is declining, so the development strategy focus must shift from foreign trade dependence to domestic demand. At present, China's eastern coastal cities are generally facing the turning point of "per capita GDP of 3000 US dollars". Under the background of domestic demand, most cities are facing the heavy responsibility of transformation, which needs to change from the traditional export-oriented economy to the domestic demand-satisfied economy. However, the success of the transformation needs to be guided and adjusted according to the characteristics of the city, and the influence of important factors such as "path dependence" and "regional competition" cannot be ignored.

After the financial crisis in 2008, Dongguan's foreign trade exports suffered heavy losses. A large number of enterprises and factories closed down due to the large reduction of orders in Europe and America, and the speed of economic development slowed down obviously. In 2009, the GDP growth rate of Dongguan ranked first in Guangdong. Relying on the superior location of Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou Economic Corridor, Dongguan became an important manufacturing town in Guangdong in its early years, with processing and manufacturing as the leading factor, and foreign trade export became an important lifeline of economic development. With the help of the function spillover of industrial highlands such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou and their own manufacturing traditions, a large number of manufacturing enterprises have been formed in Dongguan, including many enterprises in Taiwan Province Province, Hongkong enterprises and some European and American enterprises, and a large number of small enterprises supporting the development of the middle and lower reaches have also been activated. In the early days of reform and opening-up, the prosperity of manufacturing industry created the economic miracle of Dongguan, and the GDP growth rate was in the forefront year after year, and "Made in Dongguan" was famous throughout the country.

While the manufacturing industry is booming, it has also spawned supporting service industries, such as business services and business tourism. Due to the low urban energy level, Dongguan is sandwiched between two super cities, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The producer services such as finance, accounting and intermediary develop relatively slowly, while the life services related to food and accommodation develop rapidly, and a large number of star-rated hotels and restaurants have been established. In this process, a special service industry-porn service industry also came into being. Because the sex service industry is not allowed by government laws and policies, it has been operating "underground" and belongs to the underground informal economy. Its scale is estimated by netizens to be 50 billion yuan, accounting for about one tenth of Dongguan's GDP.

Before the financial crisis, Dongguan also realized the danger of an excessive proportion of export-oriented economy. Dongguan has a population of 8 million, and 6 million are migrants. Once the export-oriented industry has problems, it will not only impact the economic base, but also cause social problems. At the same time, the rise of the Yangtze River Delta and the mainland has triggered a "labor shortage" in the Pearl River Delta, and the sustainability of the Dongguan model has also caused concern. Dongguan tries to transform and develop, build Songshan Lake Science and Technology Industrial Park, and focus on developing modern service industries such as software and information. However, from the effect point of view, the breakthrough of Dongguan's modern service industry is not successful. On the one hand, it does not have the advantages of Guangzhou's culture and information gathering, on the other hand, it lacks the service industry foundation and innovation environment like Shenzhen. Dongguan's dependence on export-oriented manufacturing industry is still difficult to change. After the industry gradually moved to the periphery of the Pearl River Delta core area, Huizhou made great progress in receiving electronic information and other industries, which also had a certain impact on Dongguan's status.

After the financial crisis broke out, the crisis in Dongguan was finally fully revealed. The sharp decline in GDP and the massive closure of enterprises have forced us to "accelerate the transformation and development". However, transformation is not something you can turn if you want to. The path dependence of industry and "regional city combination" constantly squeeze the transformation space. Every neighboring city has the desire and foundation of industrial transformation, especially Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which occupy high ground in various new development factors such as culture, information and capital. Dongguan has become a "sex capital"-the most memorable thing is the pornographic service industry that is not allowed by national laws and policies. It's ironic, but it's also helpless.

"Anti-vice" will indeed have a certain impact on Dongguan, but "anti-vice" is also a necessary stage of "re-forcing" and a further test of government governance and development wisdom. Where will Dongguan go from here? Can Dongguan break the "curse" of export-oriented economy and embark on a development road that conforms to the trend and characteristics?

Finally, I want to make two points.

The first is the core competitiveness of the industry. What is the core competitiveness of Dongguan in the future? I think water culture should be one of its core elements. Creative culture based on the characteristics of water towns, leisure and entertainment with sports as the core, and service industry with quality education and medical care as the leading factors may form new industrial characteristics of Dongguan.

The second is the urban spatial pattern. Dongguan is not a strong city in the real sense, and its economic strength is not the strongest. Other towns and streets are not centered on Guancheng, but form regional economic plates with cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen, while Dongguan only forms loose administrative ties. Combined with industrial transformation, does Dongguan need to build a "strong center" city or form a networked and multi-center urban spatial pattern in the future? If we want to form the above two structures, what kind of development strategy is needed? These all need further study.