Is there a bottom to the economic slowdown?

China's economy grew by 7% in the first half of the year, further slowing down compared with last year. After experiencing rapid growth in previous years, the economic growth rate of China has been in a slow downward trend in recent years. When will China's economy bottom out? Will there be a "cliff-like" decline? People who care about China's economy will inevitably have these questions.

Speed-up shifting conforms to the development law.

In the long run, it has been at a "flat bottom", and maintaining medium and high-speed growth is the goal and the ideal state.

65,438+00%, 9%, 8%, 7% ... In the past five or six years, the economic growth rate of China has been declining continuously. Is this descent channel close to or at the bottom? What kind of state will the future economic growth present?

"When any economy develops to a certain extent, there will be a shift in economic growth, which is a universal law of economic development in all countries of the world. Under the new normal, China's economic growth also needs to shift gears. However, it should be noted that the decline rate has slowed down significantly in the past two years. " Pan, deputy director of the China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from 20 12 to now, the fluctuation of China's economic growth has been kept in a narrow range of 7%-8%, which has never been seen since the quarterly GDP growth was recorded. It seems that the growth rate is declining, but the decline is very gentle, which can be said to be in a "flat bottom" state for a long time.

Pan believes that "at present, it is unlikely that the economic growth this year will be lower than 6.9% and higher than 7. 1%, and it is not a big problem to achieve the annual growth target of around 7%".

Then, is it possible for China's steady economic slowdown to end and form a solid bottom around 7%? "According to the displacement trend, this' flat bottom' may be an L-shaped flat bottom with a slight downward inclination." Pan said:

Liu Yuanchun, Executive Dean of the National Institute of Development and Strategy of Renmin University of China, said: "After 2007, the trend of economic growth was like an asymmetric' W', with the first bottom in 2008 and 2009. After the double dip appears, a transition may be needed. When the emerging sector is fully exerted and the stock sector is integrated, it will begin to show the prototype of a new round of medium and high-speed growth. "

How to judge whether the bottom of economic growth rate is formed? Pan put forward the analysis method of dynamic equilibrium: "China's economy is developing dynamically under the interaction of pressure and power, and the two are changing. When the dynamic balance of pressure and power is relatively stable for a period of time, it should be said that there is an economic bottom. "

Wang Yiming, deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that three conditions must be met when the economic slowdown reaches the equilibrium point: from the demand side, the investment growth rate should be "soft landing". On the supply side, excess capacity should be "cleared". From the perspective of growth momentum, the new impetus should be dominant. "At present, new growth points are constantly emerging, but the volume is not big enough. There are stars but no bright moon, and the growth of new power is not enough to make up for the weakening of old power. After completing the alternation of old and new power, the economy will be balanced. "

There are also many speculations about how China's economy will operate after the growth rate has bottomed out. Some people think that China's economy will rebound in a "V" shape and return to high-speed development. In this regard, Pan said that it is not easy for the state to implement a series of macro-control policies and maintain a stable and moderate shift pace. There is no need to pursue high-speed growth during the economic shift period. Maintaining medium and high-speed growth is our goal and ideal state.

Looking at development can't just look at speed.

Economic growth is coming out of the trough, and better structure, higher quality and stronger people's sense of gain are all bright spots.

Entering the new normal, China's economy is in the transformation stage of old and new kinetic energy, which is like breaking a cocoon into a butterfly, full of pain and hope. At this stage, if we only pay attention to the economic growth rate of China, it will inevitably be biased.

"All along, we have paid attention to the bottom of economic growth, but neglected the bottom of economic growth. In the past six years, economic growth has been in the process of going out of the bottom, conveying a positive signal of economic trends. " Pan said that China's economy grew by 7% in the first half of this year, which is a huge increase in the economic scale of 10 trillion US dollars. When the total economic output reaches a certain level, the economic increment should not be underestimated.

While the economic growth slowed down steadily in an "L" shape, China's economic growth stepped out of a gentle "U" rebound trend. According to estimates, in 20 10, China's economic growth rate was 10.6%, and the increase in constant prices in 20 14 was more than 4,470 billion yuan. Assuming a growth rate of 7% in 20 15, the constant price increase is more than 4.45 trillion yuan, the highest in the past five years.

A careful analysis of China's economic growth rate of 7% in the first half of this year shows that there are bright spots full of hope behind the overall growth rate.

The economic structure is better. The driving force of economic growth is shifting from traditional industries to service industries. In the first half of the year, the tertiary industry grew by 8.4%, 0.4 percentage points faster than the same period of last year. The proportion of service industry in GDP increased to 49.5%. At the same time, the driving force of economic growth is shifting from traditional investment and export to consumption. In the first half of the year, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth reached 60%, up 5.7 percentage points year-on-year, and the basic pulling effect of consumption on growth was further revealed.

The economic quality is higher. The driving force of economic growth is shifting from industries with high pollution and high energy consumption to high-tech and strategic emerging industries. In the first half of the year, the added value of high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 10.5% year-on-year, which was obviously faster than the overall level of industry. The growth rate of investment in high-tech manufacturing industry is also higher than industrial investment 1.9 percentage points, and investment in energy-intensive industries is lower than industrial investment by 4.8 percentage points.

The people have a stronger sense of gain. In the first half of this year, 72% of new jobs were created in cities and towns, and the unemployment rate in big cities and towns was about 5. 1%, and employment expanded steadily. At the same time, the growth rate of per capita disposable income of the national residents is higher than the economic growth rate, the consumption power of residents is enhanced, and prices remain basically stable.

"Although the economic growth rate is declining, new growth points are gestating. When the next global economic cycle reverses, China may lead. " Liu Yuanchun said.

"Evaluation of economic development, people's happiness is the most important. As long as full employment can be guaranteed, the income growth of residents is synchronized with the economy, the ecological environment is constantly improving, and the economic growth rate is higher or lower. " Pan suggested looking at economic development more rationally and comprehensively, and measuring it with more comprehensive indicators: realizing the transformation from growth to increment, from quantity to quality, from speed to efficiency, and from growth to development.

China's economy will not "hard landing"

There is a foundation, conditions and motivation for economic improvement. If you slip out of a reasonable range, you have enough ability to deal with it.

Recent data show that China's economy is still facing some downward pressure. Many people are worried: Will China's economy fall off a cliff or make a hard landing?

Pan believes that economic risks should be viewed from two aspects:

Short-term and long-term combination. "Economic development is a marathon, not a 100-meter sprint. In the short term, the decline or fluctuation of some economic indicators does not affect the economic fundamentals and long-term trends. The so-called' morphological fluctuations, the trend is still good'. "

Combine the local with the global. "There are large fluctuations in local areas and local industries, and the whole country is completely controllable. We must never make a misjudgment from the point of view to the national conditions. "

"Efforts will be made to prevent and resolve regional and systemic risks, and China's economy will not fall like a cliff." Huang, vice president of Peking University National Development Research Institute, judged.

From the perspective of fundamental support, China's economy has great potential and internal motivation: the promotion of new industrialization, informationization, urbanization and agricultural modernization; The reform dividend released by structural reforms; Entrepreneurial innovation stimulates the infinite creativity of all people; People's lives have great demand for public goods and services; Driven by the Belt and Road Initiative, the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China's economic future is well-founded, conditional and dynamic.

Judging from the ability to cope with risks, in recent years, despite the great downward pressure on the economy, the central bank has not issued excessive money, and the government has not engaged in large-scale strong stimulus. Instead, it mainly relies on reform to enhance economic vitality, which not only stabilizes the situation, but also leaves room for the next step of regulation. "Once the economy may slip out of the reasonable range, we have enough control tools available."