How to predict the passenger flow of urban rail transit?

City rail transit system passenger flow prediction method is mainly four-stage prediction method.

According to the traffic generation prediction, traffic distribution prediction, traffic mode division prediction and traffic distribution of the four stages to analyze the current situation of the city and the future traffic conditions, is the most widely used method in the field of transportation planning.

I. Traffic Generation Forecast

Predicting the amount of traffic trips generated and traffic trips attracted by each traffic district in the region

Purpose: To obtain the total traffic volume that may be generated and attracted by each traffic district of the city in the future under the future scale of socio-economic development, population size and land use characteristics.

II. Traffic Distribution Forecasting

Problems solved: to which sub-districts do the trips generated by each transportation district go? And where do the trips it attracts come from?

Purpose: To obtain the spatial distribution of future urban transportation trips.

3. Mode Segmentation Forecasting

Forecasting the problem of commuters' choice of transportation modes.

1, according to the survey data, the division of the current situation of the residents travel mode

2, analysis of the target year in the absence of rail transit modes in the existence of a variety of modes of travel OD matrix

3, predict the target year in the presence of rail transit when the current situation of the various modes of transport to rail transit transfer ratio, so as to get the target year of the OD matrix of rail transit.

Four, traffic flow distribution

Purpose: to predict the mode of passenger travel and traffic flow on the transportation network.

The previous step of traffic mode division of the rail traffic between the various transportation districts to the future allocation of rail traffic to the future to be selected rail transit network plan to seek the network of rail transit lines in the passenger flow. Thus, we can get the specific rail transit network planning program of each station passenger volume, cross-section passenger flow, station OD and other indicators, for determining the rail transit network planning program basis.

Characteristics of urban rail transit

1, transportation capacity

Urban rail transit due to high-density operation, short intervals between trains, high speeds, and a large number of train sets have a greater transportation capacity.

2, punctuality

Urban rail transit in a dedicated lane operation, without the interference of other means of transportation, does not produce line blockage phenomenon and is not affected by the climate, is an all-weather transportation, the train can be operated according to the operation chart, has a reliable punctuality.

3, speedy accessibility

Compared with conventional public **** transportation, urban rail transit due to running on dedicated lanes, without interference from other modes of transportation, the vehicle has a higher operating speed, a higher start, braking acceleration, most of the use of high platforms, the train stops for a short period of time, get on and off the train quickly and conveniently, but also easy to transfer, which allows passengers to arrive at their destinations faster, shortening travel time. Shorten the travel time.

4, comfort

Compared with conventional public **** transportation, urban rail transit due to running on the line without interference from other modes of transportation, urban rail vehicles have better operating characteristics, vehicles, stations, etc. are equipped with air-conditioning, guiding devices, automated ticketing, and other direct passenger service equipment, urban rail transit has a better ride, and its comfort is better than the public **** * trams, public *** cars.

5, safety

Urban rail transit due to running on a dedicated track, there is no level crossing, not subject to interference from other modes of transportation, and advanced communication signal equipment, very few traffic accidents.