Waste paper price increase wave is sustained?

Since this year, the recycling price of used newspapers every month crumbled upward, surveys show that, compared with the second half of last year, the community has doubled the price per kilogram of waste paper recycling, the major paper mills this year, almost every month, upward adjustment of the purchase price of waste paper. In this regard, industry analysts believe that the main reason for the price increase of waste newspapers, "first of all, the country banned the import of waste paper, followed by the government to control environmental pollution of paper companies."

October is just halfway through, paper giant Dongguan Nine Dragons has twice raised prices, the major paper mills quickly followed. Cell per kilogram of used newspaper has far exceeded the scrap steel. Since the second half of last year, this wave of price increases began in the fourth quarter of this year is it possible to draw a conclusion?

The price of used newspapers has been crumbling upward every month this year, and many families are not aware of it, but the vendors who recycle scrap know it all. Newspaper recycling price per kilogram than recycling scrap iron and steel has doubled, "scrap iron and steel per kilogram or forty-five cents, with the Spring Festival than nothing has changed. But scrap newspaper 1.2 yuan per kilogram now; than the Spring Festival at least two cents higher."

Located in the East Fifth Ring near the Communication University of China neighborhood, a three-year scrap recycling vendors said that the current waste cardboard boxes 1 yuan per kilogram, the first half of the year is 80 cents per kilogram rose by two cents; old books are also the price. Comparison of waste newspaper prices are higher, 1.2 yuan per kilogram, up 20 cents per kilogram than the first half of the year. If there are more newspapers, you can add another one or two dollars. Compared with the second half of last year, the price per kilogram of waste paper has doubled.

The peddler also said that the waste newspaper, for example, last year, per kilogram to the buying station, the other side of the purchase price of 80 to 90 cents. He said he mainly serves this neighborhood, and then far away places do not go, such as to the sixth ring near the 1.4 yuan per kilogram of newspaper also, I heard that the further away, the higher the price. "If anyone's waste newspaper more points, sometimes too lazy to calculate the account specific, to the seller more than two or three dollars, but also a common thing."

Small districts, to waste newspapers, for example, some neighborhoods cartons, books and newspapers in separate categories, quoted different prices, but also some neighborhoods are neatly organized, each kilogram are in the dollar or so. Scrap iron and steel is still not favored, only forty-five cents per kilogram. However, vendors can feel the difficulty of engaging in scrap recycling is increasing, some small recycling station has closed, they heard the news is not up to standard environmental protection.

It is understood that industry analysts believe that there are two main reasons for the price hike of waste newspapers, "the first is the country's ban on the import of waste paper, and the second is the government's control of environmental pollution of paper companies, in these two factors **** the same role triggered the rise in the price of waste recycling."

According to professionals, foreign waste paper has long been favored by many domestic paper mills by virtue of lower prices and better quality. In mid-August this year, the Ministry of Environmental Protection issued a new version of the "Imported Waste Management Catalog", unsorted waste paper has been adjusted from the restriction of imports to prohibit the import of recycled (scrap) paper and cardboard is included in the "no entry list. In September this year, the average price of waste paper to the factory for 2960 yuan / ton, the same period last year, the price of only 1,240 yuan / ton, an increase of 139%.

October 6 to 8, 31 paper mills across the country to raise the purchase price of waste paper, the rate of increase in the 20 to 200 yuan per ton ranging. Since August after tightening the quality requirements of imported waste paper, "waste paper shortage" so that the domestic purchase price of waste paper reached a 9-year high. It is understood that since this year, the major paper mills almost every month to raise the purchase price of waste paper. Since the recycling price of used newspapers has been rising, then the price of paper is an inevitable thing.

Industry insiders expect, due to the supply and demand situation is difficult to change in the short term, the beginning of the fourth quarter and enter the traditional peak season of the electricity business, the situation of paper prices may be more severe.

Zhuochuang information packaging paper analyst Guo Yaping introduction, the price of various types of paper rose in September last year, after the fourth quarter of last year, paper prices rose significantly. While in March this year, paper prices fell more, mainly due to the practitioners of the late market judgment bias, this year, some small and medium-sized paper enterprises during the Spring Festival normal boot, resulting in a substantial increase in the inventory of paper enterprises after the Spring Festival. But in April the beginning of paper prices again into the upward channel, August to September paper prices have risen sharply.

In August this year, most paper mills across the country carried out three to four price increases, including corrugated paper, whiteboard paper, household paper, newsprint, coated paper, including raw paper, rose from 300 yuan to 900 yuan per ton. And in September, the national average price of corrugated paper exceeded 5,200 yuan per ton, up more than 100% year-on-year, and has reached an all-time high.

Entering October, the paper company again raised prices to accelerate. September 21, paper giant Dongguan Nine Dragons issued a price increase in October notice, September 26 - October 10 period, Dongguan Nine Dragons kraft paper, corrugated cardboard, whiteboard paper again increased by 200 yuan -300 yuan per ton ranging from the Nine Dragons this year in September issued the fourth price increase notice. Immediately after October 11, Dongguan Nine Dragons again issued a second price increase notice, October 11 - October 20 period, Dongguan Nine Dragons kraft paper, corrugated paper, recycled paper, white kraft cardboard again increased by 100-200 yuan / ton ranging, the price of whiteboard unchanged. Then the major paper mills quickly followed.

The market for the carton raw paper price trend in mid- to late October, previously appeared very different predictions. With the major paper mills to raise prices twice in October, the bullish faction prevailed.

Industry insiders said that, according to the national environmental protection policy this year, the raw paper rising space is still very large. With the big rise in paper prices, the industry chain is currently in a low inventory state, supply continues to weaken. From the demand side, the fourth quarter is the paper industry's traditional peak season, in addition to the holiday gift packaging demand rose significantly, the second half of the "Double 11", "Double 12" and other e-commerce shopping festivals to stimulate the daily average of one billion parcels of demand for the market is very exciting. September to December is the preparation of student textbooks. To December is the preparation period of student textbooks and the opening of the printing period, the demand for cultural paper will also increase greatly. The demand side of the paper is hard to find, but the supply side is stretched, coupled with the increase in labor costs, the cost of recycling waste paper rising, paper prices three days a rise is not difficult to understand.

Chuan Cai Securities believes that the impact of environmental protection inspections to increase, paper supply-side reform accelerated, small and medium-sized enterprises due to environmental high pressure and shutdown, the industry is facing a capacity contraction, so the first half of 2017, the main categories of paper prices rose across the board, the plate performance continues to improve. At the same time, industry concentration has been improved, and leading companies have gained more market share. Expected to tighten environmental protection in the second half of the year, the paper industry new production capacity is limited, so continue to optimistic about the paper plate market, boom is expected to continue, leading companies are expected to lead the industry due to grasp more market share, the second half of the earnings momentum is still strong.

Authorities believe that as environmental policies continue to tighten, the next few years, small and medium-sized paper companies will accelerate the integration of large paper companies will show the advantages of the scale of production capacity, leading paper enterprises in the gradual improvement of sales will be a collective price increases, driven by the ex-factory price of related paper products rose.

As of the close of business on October 13, Hong Kong's leading paper stocks Nine Dragons Paper annual gain of 125%, the stock is currently in the space of HK$15 to HK$18 for high consolidation. Nine Dragons Paper's latest market value has reached 74.1 billion Hong Kong dollars, creating the best level of stock prices since 2009. This year Nine Dragons Paper not only stock price performance exceeded expectations, its product selling prices are also rising. At the same time A-share leading paper industry this year, share prices have not small gains, Chenming Paper A shares and H shares up to 81% and 85%, Bohui Paper 77%, Sun Paper 41%, Mountain Eagle Paper 36%.

On the evening of September 21, Nine Dragons Paper released its results from June 30 last year to June 30 this year.For the 2017 fiscal year, Nine Dragons Paper recorded sales of 39.155 billion yuan, up 22% year-on-year; gross profit of 7.976 billion yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.384 billion yuan, up 290.79% year-on-year; earnings per share of about 0.94, dividend payout ratio of 32%. Citi said Nine Dragons results exceeded expectations, maintaining a "buy" rating; Nomura believes that the results are in line with expectations, maintaining a "buy" rating; JP Morgan believes that Nine Dragons Paper's profitability is not bad, rating "hold ".