Traditional Culture Encyclopedia - Traditional festivals - Power provincial power medium and long-term development strategy how to deal with the challenges
Power provincial power medium and long-term development strategy how to deal with the challenges
In a market economy, the role of the medium- and long-term energy development strategy should be reflected in the following four aspects: "to coordinate energy projects; secondly, to prepare the government budget accordingly; thirdly, to serve as a basis for legislation; fourthly, to improve the energy-related administration. This is an important aspect that distinguishes it from a planned economy.
I. China's energy development in the past twenty years or so has made considerable achievements and accumulated certain experiences
In the past twenty years or so, China's achievements in the field of energy have attracted the world's attention, and laid a strong foundation for the energy industry, with the total amount of coal, electricity, and petroleum industries ranked the first, the second, and the fifth in the world, respectively, thus guaranteeing the needs of economic development, and solving the problems of the In 2002, China's primary energy consumption was 1.48 billion tons of standard coal, the second highest in the world, and the average annual growth rate of China's GDP during the 1980-2000 period was as high as 1.4 billion tons of standard coal, the highest in the world. During the period of 1980-2000, the average annual growth rate of China's GDP was as high as 9.7%; while the corresponding annual growth rate of energy consumption was only 4.6%, far lower than the economic growth rate in the same period, and the elasticity coefficient of energy consumption was only 0.47. Calculated according to the ring ratio of energy saving, the cumulative energy saving and energy saving from 1981-2000 amounted to nearly 1,145 million tons of standard coal, which has realized that half of China's economic growth depends on development, and half depends on saving energy. Half of the energy needed for China's economic growth depends on development, and half on conservation. Such a low elasticity coefficient of energy consumption is rare not only in developing countries, but also in developed countries.
Secondly, the efficiency of energy utilization has improved dramatically. On the one hand, energy consumption per unit of GDP continues to decline, according to the 2000 constant price, China's energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP from 4.28 tons of standard coal in 1980 to 1.45 tons of standard coal in 2000; accordingly, each ton of standard coal created by the GDP, but also from 2,335 yuan in 1980 (the price of 2000) increased to 6,880 yuan in 2000. 20 years. In 20 years, the energy consumption per unit of output value dropped by 64%, with an average annual energy-saving rate of 4.6%; while in the same period, the world's energy consumption per unit of output value dropped by 19% on average, and that of the OECD countries dropped by 20% on average. On the other hand, the unit consumption of products in major energy-consuming sectors (such as metallurgy, chemical industry, building materials, petrochemical industry, electric power industry, etc.) has dropped considerably, among which, the comprehensive energy consumption of tons of steel, the comprehensive energy consumption of copper smelting, the comprehensive energy consumption of small synthesized ammonia, and the oil consumption of internal combustion locomotives and other indicators of unit consumption have dropped by more than 30%, and the gap between the energy consumption of major energy-consuming products and that of the advanced level in the world has been significantly narrowed. 32.5% in 1980 to about 20% at present, the key iron and steel enterprises tons of steel comparable energy consumption has also been reduced from 70.4% to about 10% at present.
A scenario: the policy of significant impact on energy demand and its social benefits do not take special policy measures, can be called the baseline scenario;
B scenario: the relevant policies to take appropriate adjustments;
C scenario: in the premise of the practicality of the operation of the premise, to do a larger policy adjustments, highlighting the impact of the economic, energy, environmental policies can be called Enhanced Policy Scenario.
It should be noted that even Scenario A does not simply follow the current policy, but takes into account the deepening of policies being implemented in the industrial, transportation, construction and energy conversion sectors, as well as the implementation of policies in the pipeline, and the other two scenarios differ only in the timing of the implementation of policies in the pipeline.
From the point of view of environmental capacity, in order to make the majority of cities in the country's air quality to meet the national secondary standards, the national emissions of sulfur dioxide must be controlled at about 12 million tons; nitrogen oxides control in 2010, 2020, respectively, 18 million tons, 16 million tons. These standards should be the minimum requirements for "environmental well-being". However, the relevant data in Table 3 shows that there is already an environmental "overdraft", by 2020, even according to the least amount of pollutants generated by the C scenario, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides generated far more than the environmental capacity to withstand the scope of the two types of pollutants need to be cut to 15.89 million tons, 12.7 million tons, respectively, to meet the current environmental quality standards, and to cut down the amount of the two types of pollutants. If the current environmental quality standards are met, the two types of pollutants need to be reduced by 15.89 million tons and 12.7 million tons, with a reduction rate of 57.0% and 44.3% respectively. In the case of Scenario A, where more pollutants are produced, the air pollution that may occur will be even more serious. In addition, the amount of carbon dioxide produced will also increase significantly, and the international pressure on China to limit its greenhouse gas emissions will become stronger and stronger. From international experience and China's potential, it is not impossible to maintain economic growth and energy development while significantly reducing environmental pollution and meeting the requirements of a moderately prosperous society on environmental quality, but faces a very serious challenge.
Initially, the sustainable development of energy will be realized by 2050 (the third decade and a half). after 2035, the new energy demand will be mainly provided by new energy sources such as renewable energy and nuclear energy, the proportion of which is striving to exceed 30%; and hydrogen-fuel-powered vehicles will become an important part of transportation.
In order to achieve long-term energy development goals, the first 20 years of the 21st century will be critical, during which energy strategies should be "transformed" in terms of the direction and mode of development with a view to long-term goals. Although the task of development is daunting, the transition should be realized in the context of development,
Development of alternative fuels and technologies. From a global perspective, the automobile industry is breeding a new energy vehicles to replace the traditional gasoline and diesel vehicles, major technological innovations, and a new generation of automobiles and alternative fuel technologies have made important progress, especially in the fuel cell, hybrid vehicles, advanced diesel technology and coal liquefaction, natural gas liquefaction, biomass liquefaction, etc., to achieve certain progress, some of which have the initial conditions for the commercialization of the application. China's government should formulate a new generation of China's automobile development plan, the organization of domestic and foreign resources, the establishment of open "government, industry, academia, research" collaborative research mechanism, to ensure that a large amount of capital investment, and strive to achieve breakthroughs in certain areas.
(a) China has a huge potential for energy saving.
Since the 1990s, China has adjusted its industrial and product structure, strengthened energy management, and promoted energy-saving new processes, new technologies, new equipment, the national key assessment of the 11 major energy-consuming industries, 33 product unit consumption indicators, with varying degrees of decline (see Table 4). Although the gap between the unit consumption of China's major energy-consuming products and the international advanced level is narrowing, the overall unit consumption of major industrial products is still more than 30% higher than that of foreign countries on average. It should be noted that even the level of product energy consumption is determined by many factors, some of which are not comparable, can not simply based on domestic and foreign comparisons to project the country's energy-saving potential.
China's energy efficiency caused by the overall level of backwardness of the main reasons are: First, the backwardness of technology and equipment; Second, the small size of the equipment, resulting in the product unit consumption is difficult to reduce; Third, the raw materials and process route differences. Compared with the advanced level of foreign countries, although we have a large gap, but does not mean that the future of China will be able to tap all this potential, the main reason for two: its ___ is the country is at a different stage of economic development; the second is that China's coal-based energy consumption structure is difficult to change in the short term, the difference between the quality of energy in the area of energy efficiency will make the level of single-consumption, the difference between the level of efficiency system difficult to narrow.
In the future, China's energy-saving potential consists of two parts, one of which is the energy-saving brought about by structural changes and strengthened management, i.e., indirect energy-saving, and the other part is the energy-saving potential formed by the decline in unit consumption, i.e., direct (technical) energy-saving.
In 2005, China's main energy-consuming industrial sector's energy-saving potential of 86.42 million tons of standard coal, the estimated energy-saving potential of the entire industrial sector in the 130 million tons of standard coal or so; taking into account the energy-saving potential of the transportation, buildings and other sectors, the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period, the whole of China's society will have 180 million tons of energy-saving potential -200 million tons of standard coal, the potential for energy-saving. Considering the energy-saving potential of transportation, buildings and other sectors, during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, China's society as a whole will have an energy-saving potential of 180 million-200 million tons of standard coal. By 2020, the energy-saving potential of China's major energy-consuming industrial sectors will be 190 million tons of standard coal, and the energy-saving potential of the entire industrial sector will be around 250 million tons of standard coal. Considering the energy-saving potential of the building, transportation and other sectors, the energy-saving potential of China's society as a whole will then reach 400-450 million tons of standard coal. If these energy-saving potentials can be tapped, the energy consumption per unit of GDP in the first 20 years of the 21st century will drop by 2.3%-3.7% per year. Although the rate of decline may slow down compared with the past 20 years, it will still be much higher than the world's average annual decline rate of 1.1% at that time.
It can be seen that energy saving and improving energy efficiency have great potential and possibilities, and whether the goal of economic growth can be achieved with less energy input depends largely on whether the potential for energy saving can be effectively tapped. Energy saving is also important for ensuring energy security and reducing environmental pollution caused by energy production and utilization.
In the process of economic and social development in all countries of the world, the environmental constraints on energy strategy and energy supply and demand technology has a very significant impact, in many cases, environmental factors than resource factors play a more decisive role. Energy development by the environmental constraints are mainly reflected in the following aspects:
First, sulfur dioxide capacity based on air quality requirements. Research by the Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences shows that the total SO2 emissions are controlled at about 12 million tons, the SO2 concentration in most cities across the country can reach the national secondary standards. At present, the vast majority of China's urban areas, coastal areas of rapid economic development, as well as acid rain and sulfur dioxide pollution in serious areas have basically no atmospheric environmental capacity resources, only the western region (in addition to large and medium-sized cities) and a certain amount of atmospheric environmental capacity.
Second, sulfur dioxide capacity based on acid rain control. China Academy of Environmental Sciences, "Acid Rain Control National Program" study shows that in order to meet the requirements of the critical load of sulfur deposition, that is, to make SO2 emissions in the ecosystem can withstand the degradation capacity, the country can accommodate up to SO216.2 million tons or so. However, from the projections, by 2010 and 2020, even according to the low scenario, sulfur dioxide emissions will reach 34.43 million tons and 40.56 million tons, respectively, and according to the high scenario, it will reach 40.72 million tons and 57.38 million tons, far exceeding the environmental capacity.
(ii) Implementation of environmentally friendly strategies and measures.
Correctly handle the relationship between energy and the environment is the implementation of environmentally friendly prerequisites, the relationship between energy and the environment is reflected in the following aspects: energy is the core of environmental issues, energy production, utilization of local, regional and global atmospheric environment has an important impact; the environment is a key factor in the energy decision-making, environmental assessment should be a prerequisite for the establishment of all energy projects, the environment should be incorporated into the integrated resource as a resource resource planning; energy is the center of environmental diplomacy, energy-consuming products are also the object of green barriers in international trade; energy production (especially renewable energy) and use (green lighting, green building materials, energy-saving air conditioners, refrigerators, green computers, etc.) is the main goal of the green movement. The environment is both a constraint on energy development and should be viewed as a driving force for sustainable energy development. In view of China's environment has been seriously damaged as well as energy production and utilization is the main cause of environmental degradation, it is recommended that environmental protection as an internal factor in the decision-making energy strategy, that is, the environmental capacity as well as the well-off society's demand for the environment as one of the important decision-making variables of energy policy.
The implementation of environmentally friendly strategies needs to be realized through four aspects: government-driven, public participation, total volume control, and emissions trading.
Government-driven: environmental protection is usually a market mechanism failure in the field, must be government-driven. Government-driven approaches include direct investment in environmental protection, the formulation and strict enforcement of laws, regulations and standards, and the establishment of an economic incentive system to promote the accelerated development of clean energy and the accelerated elimination of high-energy-consumption, high-pollution, high-material-consumption industries and products.
Aggregate control: In view of the reality that the quality of the environment has been seriously damaged, the total amount of emissions of major pollutants should be controlled and reasonably distributed in order to realize the coordinated development of the economy, energy and the environment.
Emissions trading: In order to achieve the goal of environmental protection at the lowest cost and the most effective use of environmental resources, we can draw on the more widely used and effective emissions trading system in the international arena.
Public participation: Giving full play to the role of NGOs is an important way to promote the healthy development of environmental protection in China. To create a favorable atmosphere in the whole society to care about the environment, love the environment, improve the environment, the main purpose is to ensure that the government is fair, legitimate exercise of administrative power.
First, the development of environmentally friendly energy and energy technology. The development of clean energy and energy clean utilization technology should be taken as an important goal of sustainable development energy strategy. Given that coal will still account for about 60% of primary energy consumption in 2020, the development of clean coal technology is of great importance. By 2020, accelerated promotion and application of clean coal technology could reduce coal demand by 200 million tons and reduce pollutant emissions accordingly. It is recommended to restore the National Clean Coal Technology Promotion Planning Leading Group established in 1995. Revise the national clean coal technology promotion plan, improve the interface between environmental protection means and clean coal technology development, formulate incentive policies for clean coal technology research and development and promotion and application, and implement restrictive policies on highly polluting technologies and products.
Overall, China's energy sector reform is seriously lagging behind, and the overall reform situation and economic and social development of the country's energy requirements are clearly inconsistent with the ___ degree has become a constraint on China's economic growth and deepening of the reform. Although the market-oriented reform in the field of energy has achieved certain results, it is still in the primary stage, and the task of reform is still very heavy, affecting the deepening of reform and long-term development in the field of energy, "a series of deep-rooted contradictions and problems have not been fundamentally resolved. Such as coal prices are not yet fully market-oriented; the power sector, "plant and network separation, bidding on the Internet" reform has just begun; the oil sector after the splitting of the regional monopoly is still relatively strong; the competition framework is being set up, the main body of competition, the market order, the market function, the pricing mechanism, etc. has not been reformed in place.
The experience of the past 20 years has shown that the energy released by the economic system reform has played a very important role in supporting higher economic development with lower energy growth, and that it is necessary to deepen the institutional reform in the next 20 years, especially focusing on solving the relatively lagging problem of market-oriented reform in the field of energy, and further exerting the institutional effect to achieve the goal of sustainable development of economy, society and energy.
The overall goal of the reform is: to ensure the smooth implementation of the overall national energy strategy under the premise of allowing the market competition mechanism to give full play to its optimization of the allocation of resources of the fundamental role, improve the international competitiveness of China's energy sector, and continue to meet the growing energy needs of society as a whole to cope with the challenges of the future energy sector for the relevant industries and users to provide low-cost, high-quality, stable, We will provide low-cost, high-quality, stable, adequate and clean energy products for the relevant industries and users.
The main contents of the reform include:
1. Reform of the governmental management institutions in the field of energy, and the formation of comprehensive energy management departments and specialized energy regulatory agencies in accordance with the principle of separation of government and supervision. In terms of China's energy government management institutions set up, there are two prominent problems:
First, there is a lack of comprehensive energy management institutions with strong coordination capacity and relatively centralized management functions. The current institutional setup in three aspects there are obvious deficiencies: one is the multi-objective integrated decision-making ability, cross-sectoral integrated coordination capacity is poor; the second is the macro management of the energy sector within the industry's ability is not strong, there is a "strong business, weak government" asymmetric situation. Energy industry is mostly state-owned enterprises, especially in some industries to form a state-owned mega-corporations oligopoly pattern, some enterprises are transformed from the original industry government departments (petroleum and petrochemical, electric power is the most prominent), its position in the industry as well as the government, not only has a very strong market control, but also has a strong influence on decision-making ability, on the contrary, the government's energy management agencies of the lower rank; Thirdly, the staffing of the energy management organization is small, and the strategic position of energy, the increasingly severe situation of energy supply and management coverage of the field is not commensurate.
Second, the regulatory system is still flawed. In the face of deepening marketization of the energy industry, to create and maintain a level playing field market environment, to overcome the inherent defects of the natural monopoly links for the purpose of the regulatory system is still in the initial stage of the initial stage, although the newly established independent Electricity Regulatory Commission, which performs the regulatory functions of the power industry, but China's energy management system is still in a strong plan, direct intervention in the enterprise to establish a modern control system Transformation of the transition period, there is still intense friction between the new and old systems, the current main problems are two: First, the current energy regulatory system only covers the power industry, there is still a large number of regulatory vacuum, in particular, the natural gas industry has not yet been effectively regulated, along with the promotion of the West-to-East Natural Gas Pipeline Project, the market-oriented reform of the urban gas supply system, with the characteristics of natural monopoly of natural gas pipelines to implement effective control of the call for more and more. The call for effective regulation of natural gas pipelines, which are characterized by natural monopolies, is growing louder and louder. Secondly, the newly established electric power regulator is in an awkward situation of "having institutions but lacking functions" because it has not been configured with regulatory functions in accordance with the usual international practice of modern regulatory systems, and the old system is still playing a dominant role, which poses a great challenge to the construction of a new system of energy management in the process of exploration, and also makes the market-oriented reform of the electric power system bear greater risks. The first step is to make sure that you have the best possible chance of getting the best out of your system.
It can be seen that the current government management organization has not adapted to the new situation of energy development and reform needs, not adapted to the current energy supply has been shown to be tense, the situation of energy security needs, in particular, not adapted to the long-term energy based on the development and implementation of sustainable development strategy. Even if the formulation of a good strategy, if there is no strong organizational guarantee, it is difficult to be implemented.
In order to solve the increasingly prominent energy management system deficiencies, it is recommended that, in accordance with the principle of "separation of government and supervision", to adopt a two-tier structure, the formation of a comprehensive energy management agency (Ministry of Energy) and a professional energy regulatory agencies.
The reorganization and improvement of energy regulatory agencies, the main work focuses on the following two aspects: First, as soon as possible to solve the problem of power regulatory agencies are not in place, should be given to the Electricity Regulatory Commission price control and access control. This issue is not a simple "transfer" of regulatory power between different sectors, but is related to the question of whether the energy sector, which is the most heavily planned economy, can successfully replace the old system with a new one, which will have a demonstration effect on the reform of the management system of other monopolistic industries (such as telecommunications and railroads). In addition, the regulatory body should be given the power to screen market monopoly behavior and suggest industrial restructuring, which is particularly important in the absence of an independent anti-monopoly agency in China. Secondly, the natural gas industry should be regulated, especially the natural gas pipelines, which are characterized by natural monopoly, and the main content of the regulation should be the fair access to the pipelines and the price. It can be reorganized on the basis of the electric power regulatory body, adding the function of regulating natural gas, and equipped with the appropriate regulatory personnel, and renamed the current Electricity Regulatory Commission as the Energy Regulatory Commission.
The relationship between a comprehensive energy management agency and a specialized energy regulatory agency is that the former mainly formulates national energy strategies, medium- and long-term energy development plans, annual development plans and energy policies, and coordinates cross-sectoral relations and the development of different types of energy; the latter carries out the national energy planning and policies, and is mainly focused on the implementation of specialized and independent power, natural gas and two specific industries. The latter implements national energy planning and policies, and specializes in the independent control of two specific industries, namely electricity and natural gas.
The sustainable development of energy, resources and the environment is still a matter of high concern for the central government and low concern for some local governments. In order to solve this problem, in addition to the establishment of the scientific concept of development performance assessment indicators and cadres management system and other comprehensive countermeasures, but also need to have the local energy management institutions of the organizational safeguards, specifically, the professional energy control institutions to take the central and local vertical setup; the local level also need to set up a new comprehensive energy management institutions, the development and implementation of national energy policy under the leadership of local energy policy, to reflect the local energy policy, to reflect the local energy policy. Local energy policy, in order to reflect the principle of localization, to ensure the implementation of national energy strategy and policy.
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