How long will it take for new energy vehicles to be popularized?

In 2020, state subsidies were withdrawn, and new energy vehicles were officially opened in the Warring States period.

Here's a bold guess.

It must be a major reshuffle of the industry. As the tide recedes, it will soon be clear who is swimming naked.

Independent brands will soon emerge as a new force, and joint venture brands will soon be overthrown.

The new car-making forces are likely to be eliminated.

BYD and Tesla continue to widen the gap with their peers, and the TB war will be explosive and colorful.

In this battlefield without smoke, it is impossible for the refueling truck to be immune to it, especially if the off-site referee is still eccentric.

As the maker and referee of the rules of the game, the country will look on coldly. Once the development of new energy vehicles is not smooth, the referee will immediately take the stage to personally beat the driver of fuel vehicles and help a driver of new energy vehicles-the state will continue to give various policies to new energy vehicles and continue to implement stricter policies on fuel vehicles.

The only resistance that tanker students can do is to reduce the price, and the price of tanker will drop sharply in the next five years.

Many people will doubt the popularization speed of new energy vehicles, because they ignore the power of national will.

So how long will it take to popularize?

In fact, the concept of popularization is difficult to define. What is the market share? Is it over 50%? Or more than 90%? Still 99%?

In fact, the popularity lies not in these, but in consumers' attitude towards new energy vehicles, which is the first choice when buying a car.

When consumers buy mobile phones, the first choice is smart phones, which means that smart phones have become popular.

The same is true for new energy vehicles.

Personal optimistic estimate is 5 years, and conservative estimate is 10 years.

Reference:

Author: two days

Link:/question/346711280/answer/836668428

Source: Zhihu.