Do you need to give up electric cars when oil prices enter the 5 yuan era?

The COVID-19 epidemic slowed down economic growth, and the competition for market share between Saudi Arabia and Russia intensified. In addition, many countries have introduced measures to restrict residents' activities and close enterprises, resulting in a sharp drop in fuel demand. Global oil prices plummeted.

This time, the China market finally caught up with the international pace: a new round of refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24: 00 on March 17. Gasoline is lowered per ton 10 15 yuan, and diesel is lowered by 975 yuan per ton, including 0.80 yuan per liter for No.92 gasoline, 0.84 yuan per liter for No.95 gasoline and 0.83 yuan per liter for No.0 diesel. According to the estimation of 50L capacity of general domestic automobile fuel tank, it will save 40 yuan to fill a tank of 92 # gasoline.

Take Chengdu as an example, the price of No.92 gasoline is 5.56 yuan/liter, and the price of No.95 gasoline is 5.99 yuan/liter. If you go to a remote private gas station, the price may be lower.

As we all know, in recent years, a very important reason for the strong rise of new energy vehicles is that "the oil price is too high", which leads to the higher cost of fuel vehicles than electric vehicles, so consumers "feel the same way" and electric vehicles have grown rapidly in just a few years. The data shows that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China increased explosively in 20 13 and 20 14 years, and maintained a high-speed and stable growth in 20 16-20 18 years. By 20 18, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 127 and 65438 respectively.

Nowadays, with the decline of oil price, the debate about new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles on the Internet is getting hotter and hotter: some people think that the downward adjustment of oil price will promote the sales recovery of fuel vehicles; Some people think that the drop in oil prices is only temporary, and the trend of automobile development to new energy sources will not change. So, will fuel vehicles usher in the "second spring"?

0 1

First of all, is the oil really running out?

The development of fuel vehicles, policies and environmental regulations are the key, and oil prices are the key. Related to oil prices are global oil reserves and production.

From the beginning of reading, the textbook has been written that "oil is non-renewable energy" and must be mined moderately. However, until now, there is no sign of oil exhaustion. On the contrary, with the progress of exploration and exploitation technology, there is more and more oil on the earth.

There is such a set of data:

1882, economists estimated that there were 95 million barrels of remaining oil. At that time, the world consumed 25 million barrels a year, which could be used up in four years.

By 19 19, the oil has not been used up. At that time, environmental science reported that the oil was only enough for 20 years, but by 1950, more than 30 years later, the oil was still not used up. At that time, the American Petroleum Institute estimated that there were still 654.38 billion barrels of oil in the world. At this time, the proven oil reserves are more than 1000 times of 1882.

In reality, the proven reserves of petroleum have increased year after year, reaching 648 billion barrels at 1980; 1993, only 13 years later, the reserves rose to 999 billion barrels, to10/600 million barrels in 2000, and to1238 billion barrels in 2008. ...

More importantly, on 20 17, China successfully tried to produce natural gas hydrate for the first time in Shenhu sea area of South China Sea. Since then, China has become the leading country in the world to master the trial production technology of submarine natural gas hydrate (also known as combustible ice). It is understood that the estimated carbon content of global combustible ice is twice the total carbon content of all fossil fuels (including coal, oil and natural gas), and the reserves of submarine combustible ice are at least enough for human use 1000 years.

In other words, no one knows whether the oil will be used up. Even if it can be used up, no one knows when. Now humans have discovered more kinds of fossil fuels. Electricity is not the only energy source in the future.

02

Many car companies said they would not give up "fuel vehicles"

Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet, for the automobile manufacturers in the front line of the market, the fate of "fuel vehicles" is related to their strategic direction.

In recent years, although countries have set off a wave of "banning the sale of fuel vehicles", countries in the European Union are the most active, and even India has set the time at 2030; China first mentioned the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles in September 20 17, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated for the first time that China is studying and formulating a timetable for the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles.

However, three years have passed, and the official has not given this timetable. Only the Hainan Clean Energy Vehicle Development Plan released by Hainan Province in April said that the sale of fuel vehicles would be banned in 2030. It is not difficult to see that although the government encourages new energy vehicles, it has continued to invest in funds and policies for many years; However, I am still very cautious about banning the sale of fuel vehicles.

On the other hand, almost all traditional automobile manufacturers regard electrification as the future direction, but they also promise to "walk on two legs" with fuel and electricity at this stage.

Qi Puce, chairman of BMW Group, said publicly a few days ago: "Sustainable travel solutions must win people's favor, not tell them what to do. Therefore, we provide at least one electrification product for almost every product series. Consumers should have the right to choose and choose electric travel without making any other compromises. The BMW Group is committed to providing consumers with the freedom to choose different drive technologies-we call it' the right to choose'. " The implication is that BMW should take into account both fuel vehicles and electric vehicles.

Volkswagen, another German automobile giant, has not forgotten its best small-displacement turbocharged engine while electrifying. Although the current 1.4T gold power will soon be eliminated, Volkswagen immediately built a 1.5T four-cylinder engine. In the case of little change in parameters, Volkswagen injected new technologies such as variable geometry cross-section turbine, electronically controlled coolant pump, APS cylinder wall antifriction coating, 350bar high pressure direct injection system, variable cylinder technology, Miller cycle and so on.

This also makes the thermal efficiency of this engine reach 37.5%, the compression ratio is 12.5: 1, and the fuel consumption performance can be immediately shown. Referring to the 1.5T golf model that was first listed overseas, the comprehensive fuel consumption of 1.5T low-power version is only about 4.6L/ 100km, and the high-power version is about 4.9L/ 100km.

Toyota, on the other hand, gave another opinion-hybrid oil and electricity is king. At present, Toyota's hybrid technology is also the most advanced and mature automobile energy saving and emission reduction technology at this stage. In addition to reducing fuel consumption by about 40%, the power performance can be improved by about 30%, which can be described as killing two birds with one stone.

In addition, Mazda's "Chuangchi Blue Sky", Honda's "Earth Dream" and Nissan's VC-T engine technology are almost all declaring war on fuel consumption. ...

03

Why does China vigorously advocate new energy vehicles?

Since everyone is developing to "fuel-saving" technology, and there is no sign of running out of oil and food, why are new energy vehicles being vigorously promoted at home and abroad? Especially in China, under the influence of policies and subsidies, the share of new energy vehicles is increasing.

To be sure, people pay more and more attention to environmental protection, which makes the government have to reduce the market space of fuel vehicles.

On the other hand, it is determined by China's resource endowment.

In recent years, China's economy has developed rapidly and steadily, and the demand for fossil energy and oil resources has been increasing. China's oil and gas resources are insufficient, the contradiction between energy supply and demand is prominent, and its dependence on imported oil is increasing. In 20 19, China imported 505.72 million tons of crude oil, and its apparent consumption reached 695.924 million tons. 20 1 1 year, its crude oil import is only 253.78 million tons, and its apparent consumption is about 4549 16000 tons. As a result, the external dependence of crude oil is from 2065438.

As we all know, the external dependence of energy is too high, and it is easy to be "strangled". Therefore, finding alternative energy sources or multiple driving modes is an effective means to alleviate external dependence, and it is also something that must be done at the national level.

04

Is now the best time to buy a fuel car?

For consumers, with the decrease of oil price, what they are most concerned about is whether to buy a fuel car.

To answer this question, we need to take a longer view-automobile consumption is a long-term activity, ranging from a few years to a decade, and the rise and fall of oil prices will change with the supply and demand of the market. Therefore, it is obviously irrational to buy a car because of the decrease in oil prices.

On the other hand, although electrification is the direction of automobile development, it is difficult to eliminate fuel vehicles in a short time because of their huge base, wide application range and mature conditions. It can even be said that in 10, gasoline vehicles will still be the absolute mainstream. Most people have owned a car for less than 10 years. Therefore, fuel vehicles can still be bought.

To sum up, the purchase of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles is decided according to consumers' own situation and use environment. The rise and fall of oil prices can only affect the rhythm for a short time and cannot change the direction of automobile development.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.