Development trend and strategic countermeasures of new energy technologies and emerging industries in 2035

The iterative innovation of energy technology has promoted the transformation and development of the global energy industry. As the largest developing country, the largest population country and the second largest economy in the world, China is also the largest energy producer and consumer. The healthy development of energy industry is related to the sustainable development of resources, environment and social economy in China. At present, although the development of China's energy industry has made remarkable achievements, the problems it faces are equally prominent: ① The total energy consumption is huge, and the energy production and consumption structure is still dominated by fossil energy. In 20 18, the total coal consumption in China was about 2.74 109 tce, up by10% year-on-year, accounting for 59.0% of the total energy consumption. This paper discusses the overall development law of China's strategic emerging industries, the development trend and path choice of new energy industries or a sub-industry of energy, and the policy regulation of strategic emerging industries. However, for the future development of emerging industries in China's energy field, especially the strategic research on industrial positioning, development path and specific measures, the relevant content is still blank.

On the basis of clarifying the characteristics and industrial connotation of China's new energy technologies, this paper combs the changing trend and development trend of the global competition pattern of new energy technologies and emerging industries, and studies the development direction of China's new energy technologies and emerging industries in 2035, especially the development goals and key tasks during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period. Clear the specific development direction of technological innovation, and put forward key projects of engineering science and technology, major projects and demonstration area construction and related policy suggestions.

Second, the characteristics and industrial connotation of new energy technology

(A) the characteristics of new energy technologies

New energy technology has the characteristics of * * [4]: (1) through the innovation of technical principles, the restrictive problems in the development of technical fields are solved; (2) Having excellent technical competitiveness or advantages; ③ Based on relevant mature technologies, it has good technical feasibility; (4) There is great potential to reduce the cost, which can be combined with a high technology learning rate to make the scale of technology development expand rapidly and the cost drop sharply, so as to be able to compete with traditional technologies and occupy a larger market share. Based on the definition of existing research [7], this paper further defines new energy technology as a breakthrough or subversive energy development and utilization technology, which not only involves the fields of renewable energy and nuclear energy, but also covers the fields of unconventional oil and gas resources development, clean and efficient conversion and utilization of traditional fossil energy, energy transmission and end-use energy.

(b) the scope and positioning of new energy technologies and emerging industries

As a new industry, the positioning of new energy technology industry needs to accurately reflect the objective laws of energy development, meet the national major demand of "promoting the revolution of energy production and consumption, building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system", fully reflect the new trend, new vitality and new format of energy industry, and effectively promote green and low-carbon as a new kinetic energy for economic growth. The State Council's Decision on Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries divides strategic emerging industries into seven categories, in which "new energy industry" and "energy saving and environmental protection industry" mainly involve the energy field, and "energy saving and environmental protection industry" only involves high efficiency and energy saving in the process of utilizing traditional industries. New energy industry, energy conservation and environmental protection industry and new energy automobile industry are collectively referred to as "green low-carbon industries" in the "Thirteenth Five-Year" national strategic emerging industry development plan. Therefore, the emerging industries in the energy field used to be called "new energy industries".

Energy itself does not involve new energy and old energy, but the advanced degree of energy technology is different [7~9]. Only using the word "new energy industry" can not directly reflect smart grid, energy storage, distributed energy, microgrid and other industries. The development of renewable energy industry also needs to pay attention to the advanced technology. The positioning of "new energy industry" focuses on nuclear energy, solar energy, wind energy, biomass energy and other industries, and it is easy to ignore the subversive role of new fossil energy technologies (such as large-scale shale oil and gas development technology and advanced clean coal technology), and exclude the systematic joint and coordinated development of new fossil energy technologies and non-fossil energy technologies. The policy documents of some government departments, such as the National Energy Administration, include shale gas development and smart grid into strategic emerging industries, but the specific scope of emerging industries in the energy field is still unclear. The positioning of "new energy industry" is too narrow, and the statistical scope cannot fully reflect the energy and industrial changes brought about by the development of new energy technologies. The limitations of the existing industrial division of labor and positioning have hindered the integrated innovation of new energy technologies and the coordinated development of different energy industries to some extent, which is not conducive to comprehensively promoting the energy production and consumption revolution.

In view of this, this paper puts forward that it is appropriate to expand the scope and connotation of the previous "new energy industry" [7], pay equal attention to the clean and efficient utilization of fossil energy and the large-scale development of nuclear energy and renewable energy, and collectively call the emerging industries in the energy field "new energy technology industry". New energy technologies related to the development of emerging industries include energy saving and energy efficiency improvement, clean and efficient development and utilization of fossil energy, smart grid and energy storage technology, large-scale development and utilization of unconventional oil and gas resources and renewable energy, independent innovation of nuclear power technology and nuclear waste disposal technology, and related frontier technologies such as hydrogen energy and fuel cells, nuclear fusion energy, dry hot rocks and natural gas hydrates.

New energy technology emerging industries mainly cover clean and efficient coal conversion and utilization industry (focusing on advanced coal-fired power generation industry), unconventional oil and gas development and utilization industry (focusing on unconventional natural gas industry, involving shale gas, coalbed methane and natural gas hydrate industry), energy Internet and comprehensive energy service industry (focusing on energy Internet, advanced power transmission, energy storage and comprehensive energy service industry), nuclear system and renewable energy industry (focusing on wind power generation, solar photovoltaic and photothermal power generation, biomass

Third, the development trend of new energy technologies and emerging industries.

development status

1. Global energy, new technologies and emerging industries

The global energy situation is undergoing profound changes. The large-scale development of unconventional oil and gas resources has supported the "energy independence" of the United States, and the nuclear power supply capacity of some countries has been decreasing. The rapid development of renewable energy industry represented by wind power generation and solar power generation and the production of unconventional oil and gas resources have become a global trend, constantly changing the global energy supply and demand pattern [10]. The transformation of world energy development to green and low-carbon is characterized by "low-carbon transformation of energy structure, transformation of energy development mode to climate and ecological adaptation, and transformation from ensuring energy supply to realizing intelligent energy services". Countries are committed to energy technology innovation and promote low-carbon, green and sustainable energy development. Highly active technological innovation activities have triggered changes in the way of energy development and utilization: the global energy supply capacity has increased significantly with the improvement of technological level; Clean and efficient fossil energy development and utilization technology gives fossil energy new competitiveness, but the pressure of emission reduction, especially carbon emission reduction, is still enormous; Renewable energy technology has been widely used, and the cost is also decreasing. Realizing a large proportion of renewable energy consumption will be the challenge of the future energy system [11]; It is worth noting that the application of hydrogen energy has become a new industry, involving electricity, heating and fuel.

2. New energy technologies and emerging industries in China.

At present, China's energy development has turned to upgrading stage [1 1]. The domestic energy consumption structure has been continuously optimized, and the proportion of clean energy other than coal and oil has reached 22. 1% in 20 18 years. The energy supply structure is developing towards diversification. As the world's largest producer of renewable energy, China's renewable energy industry has developed rapidly, and the corresponding new power generation capacity has surpassed that of fossil energy. In 20 18 years, the proportion of renewable energy generation in the power structure reached 26% [2], and its substitution role became increasingly apparent. The scale of wind power generation (accounting for 5.2%) and solar photovoltaic power generation (accounting for 2.5%) all reached the first place in the world, and the situation of abandoning wind and limiting electricity was obviously improved, and the amount and rate of photovoltaic waste light were reduced. The scale of nuclear power (accounting for 4. 1%) is growing steadily, and the prospect of multi-purpose utilization of nuclear energy is promising. The energy Internet and comprehensive energy service industry have flourished, and the construction of energy infrastructure has been accelerated, which has guaranteed the implementation of the "Belt and Road Initiative" and promoted regional integration and development.

On the technical level, China's energy science and technology level and innovation ability have been continuously improved, and some areas have reached the international leading level [12]. The efficiency of fossil energy development and utilization has been further improved, and the ultra-low emission technology of coal-fired power generation has begun to be fully promoted. Unconventional natural gas development and utilization technology has continuously made breakthroughs. The technical level of power grid and energy storage engineering has been continuously improved, and the energy Internet and energy storage industry are at the international leading level. The technological innovation capability of nuclear energy and renewable energy industries has also been enhanced.

At the same time, the problems in the development of new energy technologies and emerging industries in China are more prominent [13]. The overall level of clean and efficient coal conversion and utilization needs to be improved, and advanced coal utilization technology needs further research and development breakthroughs and demonstration and popularization; The problem of oil and gas supply security is outstanding, unconventional oil and gas has not yet been commercialized on a large scale, and key technologies and institutional mechanisms still exist; The nuclear power industry still needs to be further scaled up to ensure safe and efficient development; The development of energy internet and comprehensive energy service industry is still restricted by many factors such as technology and market. There are still many problems in the development of renewable energy industry, such as lack of core technology and difficulty in grid connection.

(2) Development trend

1. Global energy, new technologies and emerging industries

Facing 2035, the mainstream of global energy development is still the coordinated development of fossil energy and non-fossil energy [13]. From the perspective of stability, economy and availability, renewable energy is obviously insufficient, and the main body of global primary energy supply will maintain technically stable fossil energy for a long time. Green and low-carbon energy is the main direction of energy technology innovation for a long time to come, and the deep integration of energy, information and materials is expected to give birth to smart energy networks. Technological innovation in the energy field will inject new impetus into the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and promote the rapid development of emerging fields such as intelligent manufacturing, intelligent building and intelligent transportation [1 1].

2. New energy technologies and emerging industries in China.

In the next 10~ 15 years, China's energy production and consumption structure will continue to be optimized, but in view of the existing scale foundation, traditional fossil energy will still play a fundamental role in ensuring energy security. Unconventional oil and gas resources, such as shale gas and coalbed methane, are expected to become strategic alternative resources for China's oil and gas industry. Nuclear system is a high-tech field with global competitiveness in China, and the research and development and multi-purpose utilization of nuclear energy technology will continue to heat up. As a clean alternative to fossil energy, renewable energy industry is of great significance in improving energy supply capacity, meeting sustainable energy demand, and maintaining environmental and climate security, and will continue to rise rapidly. Energy Internet guides the development path for the transformation of modern power industry and comprehensive energy system.

Four. Strategic Countermeasures for the Development of New Energy Technologies and Emerging Industries Facing 2035

(A) strategic thinking on the development of new energy technologies and emerging industries

Based on the reality of China's national conditions, the objective law of energy development and the trend of energy technology innovation, the development of new energy technologies and emerging industries needs to pay equal attention to the subversive role of new technologies of fossil energy and non-fossil energy, constantly optimize the energy production and consumption structure, and strive to improve energy utilization efficiency and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption. Strengthen the basic research of energy science and technology, and vigorously carry out cutting-edge technological innovation, especially interdisciplinary innovation and subversive technological innovation research. Promote the deep integration of energy, materials and information, develop smart grid and smart energy, and build a clean, low-carbon, efficient and intelligent modern comprehensive energy system [7, 1 1].

(B) "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" period of industrial development goals and tasks

According to the nine sub-industries covered by new energy technologies and emerging industries, on the basis of the development of various industries during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the specific development goals and key tasks that should be focused on by various industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan period are further analyzed.

1. Clean and efficient utilization of coal industry

Development goals: the average coal consumption of coal-fired generating units is less than 300 GCE/(kW h), and the carbon emission intensity is reduced to about 825 g/(kW h); Realize the demonstration of 5~ 10 MW IGFC power station project; Construction of 600 MW 700 ultra-supercritical engineering demonstration project; Construction of a million tons of carbon dioxide capture, oil displacement and storage demonstration project.

Key tasks: ① comprehensively improve the efficiency of coal-fired generating units and the level of pollutant emission control, and develop efficient and low-cost carbon capture, utilization and storage technologies; (2) Developing highly flexible coal-fired power generation technology and developing coal and renewable energy coupling power generation technology; (3) Developing intelligent power generation technology with digital, self-learning, adaptive and interactive features; ④ Accelerate the implementation of major projects of "clean and efficient utilization of coal" and increase the investment in research and development of IGCC/IGFC (coal gasification combined cycle power generation system).

2. Unconventional natural gas development and utilization industry

Development target: the shale gas output will reach 31010 ~ 510/0m3, and the surface coalbed methane extraction output will reach131010m3; Forward-looking layout of natural gas hydrate industry, strengthening the exploration and exploitation test technology of natural gas hydrate resources, and strive to make new breakthroughs.

Key tasks: ① Accelerate the construction of Sichuan-Chongqing shale gas commercial development base and realize the rapid growth of shale gas production; (2) Accelerate the construction of new shale gas demonstration zones such as atmospheric pressure, deep layer and land, and promote the expansion of shale gas industry to multiple regions and fields; ③ Continue to promote the construction of two CBM industrialization bases in Qinshui Basin and the eastern edge of Ordos Basin; (4) Accelerate the development test of new areas and strata such as Permian in South China and low-rank coal in Ordos Basin, and form a new coalbed methane industrial base; ⑤ Develop both land and sea, lay out the gas hydrate industry in a forward-looking way, and speed up resource evaluation and technology research and development.

3. Energy Internet and Integrated Energy Service Industry

Development goal: to build the ubiquitous power Internet of Things, initially form an energy Internet ecosystem of * * * construction, * * * governance and * * * win-win, lead the transformation of energy production and consumption, and realize the online rate of power-related businesses reaching 90%.

Key tasks: ① Study the new infrastructure system of smart city that adapts to the development characteristics of global energy Internet; ② Superconducting transmission technology has been gradually adopted in the upgrading of transmission lines; ③ Fully and deeply perceive the operation, status and environmental information of storage devices in the source network, and strive to improve the friendly grid-connected level of distributed energy and the controllable capacity ratio of the power grid through virtual power plants and multi-energy complementary methods; ④ Optimal dispatching is adopted to realize the coordinated control of trans-regional transceiver terminals, and centralized inter-provincial transactions and decentralized intra-provincial transactions are realized based on the electricity market, so as to promote the consumption of clean energy; ⑤ Develop advanced energy storage systems with multiple types, large capacity, low cost, high efficiency and long life.

4. Nuclear system

Development goal: the installed capacity of nuclear power is 9.4107 ~1108 kw; The operational capacity of the completed PWR is 7.2106 ~ 9.6106 kw; The operating capacity of the advanced reactor is 6 106 kW.

Key tasks: (1) The nuclear power technology of independent third-generation PWR is developed in a spectral way and built in batches; (2) Small multipurpose nuclear reactor technology has opened up the application scope and field of nuclear energy; (3) The fourth generation advanced nuclear energy technology and PWR develop harmoniously to create a sustainable development model; ④ Develop stable, efficient, safe and practical nuclear fusion technology.

5. Wind power industry

Development goal: the cumulative installed capacity will reach 3.5 108 kW, including 2107 kw for offshore wind power; Land-based wind power projects are fully competitive, and the cost of leveling electricity for offshore wind power projects is significantly reduced.

Key tasks: ① Optimize the industrial spatial layout and accelerate the development of onshore decentralized wind power; ② Actively and orderly promote offshore wind power construction; (3) Strengthen local utilization and solve the consumption problem; (4) Strengthen the research of basic technology to form a complete R&D and manufacturing system for industrial development; ⑤ Strengthen the market competition mechanism and actively promote the integration of wind power industry and financial system.

6. Solar photovoltaic industry

Development goal: the cumulative installed capacity of solar photovoltaic power generation is close to 400 GW, and the cumulative installed capacity of solar photothermal power generation is 5 GW.

Key tasks: ① Vigorously develop distributed photovoltaic power generation; (2) Improve the consumer protection mechanism to ensure consumption and installation; (3) further improve the efficiency of solar cells and components and reduce the power cost; (4) Large-scale development of molten salt tower technology with long heat storage time to further reduce the cost and electricity price of heat-conducting oil tank power station; ⑤ Developing solar cross-season heat storage heating technology; ⑥ Actively participate in the global market.

7. Biomass energy industry

Development goal: waste incineration power generation will realize clean operation and occupy a leading position in biomass power generation; The annual profit consumption of biomass briquette is 4 107 t, and the heating cost of biomass power generation is close to that of coal-fired power generation.

Main tasks: ① Establish the database of biomass resource distribution and its physical and chemical characteristics; (2) Research and development of high-efficiency cogeneration of biomass, cogeneration of multiple products and clean incineration of garbage to generate electricity; ③ Pay attention to the research and development of key technologies for industrialized production and efficient and clean utilization of biomass briquette; ④ Biomass transportation fuel focuses on promoting the industrialization of cellulose ethanol, establishing a mature commercial operation mode of biodiesel, and developing efficient biomass conversion technology.

8. Geothermal energy industry

Development goal: increase geothermal heating (cooling) area11009m2; The installed capacity of geothermal power generation is 500 MW; ; The annual benefit of geothermal energy is equivalent to 1 108 tce.

Key tasks: ① give priority to the exploration and selection evaluation of geothermal resources potential; ② Actively promote geothermal heating (refrigeration), improve the heating structure and meet the demand of clean energy; (3) Strengthen the technical research of different types of heat accumulators and break through key technologies; ④ Strengthen the research of geothermal power generation technology to promote the efficient utilization of geothermal energy; ⑤ Vigorously develop cascade utilization and "geothermal+"to enhance the market competitiveness of geothermal energy.

9. Hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry

Development goals: improve supporting infrastructure such as hydrogen production and hydrogenation, and build more than 300 hydrogen refueling stations to achieve a basic balance between hydrogen supply and demand; The batch technology of key core components has been greatly improved, and the core technology of the hydrogen energy industry chain has been basically mastered; Realize the diversification of urban hydrogen energy application scenarios.

Key tasks: ① Overall planning, rational layout, standardized construction and large-scale promotion of hydrogen energy infrastructure; ② Strengthen the integration of fuel cell system; (3) demonstration of hydrogen +CO2 capture and storage technology (CCS), hydrogen refueling station and fuel cell truck; (4) Demonstration and application of electrolytic hydrogen production from renewable energy, hydrogen refueling stations, fuel cell buses and buses in coastal cities; ⑤ Demonstration application of fuel cells for special vehicles; ⑥ Develop the application of 100 kW fuel cell distributed power station in marginal cities and industrial and mining enterprises.

(3) Innovation direction and engineering science and technology support for 2035.

1. Key technical direction

Comprehensive judgment shows that the development direction of new energy technologies and key technologies of emerging industries in China in 2035 is shown in Table 1, and * * * has 4 1 specific technologies.

Table 1 Development Direction of Key Technologies of New Energy Technologies and Emerging Industries in China

(continued)

2. The establishment of engineering science and technology projects.

Support and promote the establishment of national key engineering science and technology projects (see Table 2), focus on key technologies with forward-looking, pioneering and exploratory features in the energy field, improve the technical level and independent innovation capability, and effectively support the development of new energy technologies and industries in the medium and long term.

Table 2 Key projects of engineering science and technology related to the development of new energy technologies and emerging industries

3. Establish a multi-energy complementary distributed energy major project.

The research on single energy technology and its control in China is mature, but the integrated application technology of multiple energy technologies and the basic theory and engineering practice research of microgrid based on distributed energy are lacking [13]. Distributed energy supply system is an important development direction of energy system in the future, which has the characteristics of environmental protection, economy, decentralization, reliability and flexibility, and can meet the multi-energy co-supply demand of high energy-consuming industries, industrial parks, public buildings, commercial buildings and civil buildings, and has huge technical improvement space and market potential. Setting up major projects and building a multi-energy complementary distributed energy supply system based on demonstration is an important task of building a "internet plus" smart energy system, which is conducive to improving the coordination ability of energy supply and demand, promoting the production of clean energy and the consumption of renewable energy nearby, and improving the comprehensive efficiency of the energy system.

Engineering tasks: ① Optimize the layout and build the infrastructure of distributed energy supply system; ② Research on basic theory, core technology and system integration of distributed energy supply; ③ Develop high-level independent microgrid converters, controllers and other key equipment; ④ Through the key technologies of independent microgrid system integration and energy efficiency management, multi-energy collaborative supply and energy cascade utilization can be realized; ⑤ form a multi-energy complementary distributed energy supply system suitable for end users and large energy bases; ⑥ Provide overall energy solutions for towns, islands (reefs), polar regions and remote areas.

Key tasks: ① Multi-energy complementary distributed energy supply system for central and eastern terminals; ② Multi-energy complementary distributed energy supply system in large energy base.

4. Establish a new energy technology integration and innovation demonstration zone.

(1) Hebei xiong'an new area Energy New Technology Integration Innovation Demonstration Zone

Xiong'an new area and its surrounding areas have a low level of development and a large space for development, and have the basic conditions for high starting point and high standard development and construction. Xiong'an new area, Hebei Province will be the main place to build a demonstration zone of new energy technology integration and innovation, which will help to build a green and smart new city, an eco-city, develop high-end high-tech industries, promote the development of southern Hebei and even the hinterland of North China, and build a green and low-carbon development model that meets the requirements of ecological civilization development.

Engineering tasks: ① Building a comprehensive service platform for smart energy in xiong'an new area, Hebei; (2) Complete the overall heating planning scheme for newly-built nuclear power plants and pool-type low-temperature heating reactors; ③ Accelerate the coordinated development of wind power development and supporting power grid construction; ④ Accelerate the coordinated development of solar energy industry chain in the whole region; ⑤ Popularize efficient and clean garbage power generation projects, and build whole corn/wheat fuel ethanol and biogas bio-refining projects; ⑥ Develop large-scale distributed renewable energy grid-connected technologies and equipment; ⑦ Intensify exploration and focus on comprehensive utilization of multi-layer hydrothermal storage in xiong'an new area [14]; The layout includes the construction of the whole industrial chain of hydrogen production, hydrogen transportation, hydrogen storage by hydrogenation and hydrogen consumption.

(2) The Outline of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Plan, the Implementation Plan of National Ecological Civilization Experimental Zone (Hainan) and the Opinions on Supporting Shenzhen to Build Socialism with Chinese characteristics Pilot Demonstration Zone all put forward the requirements of developing green and low-carbon industries. Relying on good regional advantages, policy advantages and energy industry foundation, focusing on southwest Guangdong (including Hainan), we will build a new energy technology integration and innovation demonstration zone in coastal areas of South China, which will provide a reference example for the development of low-carbon economy in coastal areas.

Engineering tasks: ① Build a cross-regional "internet plus" energy comprehensive operation service platform; (2) Complete the construction of existing nuclear power units and select new nuclear power projects; ③ Actively and orderly promote the development and construction of onshore/offshore wind power to promote the consumption and utilization of local wind power; ④ Photovoltaic industry complements other industries and develops solar photovoltaic in various forms; ⑤ Promote efficient and clean garbage power generation projects, and develop bagasse/straw fuel ethanol and multi-material biogas bio-refining projects; ⑥ Explore geothermal resources and their distribution characteristics, and build demonstration projects for geothermal utilization; ⑦ Focus on breaking through large-scale distributed renewable energy grid-connected technologies and equipment [14]; ⑧ Build a smart energy system to realize the mutual transformation of different energy forms and improve the overall energy utilization efficiency; 9. Build a "green Hainan" integrating energy (hydrogen energy and electric energy) and transportation, and build a zero-emission intelligent transportation Hainan Island Pilot Free Trade Zone.

Verb (abbreviation of verb) countermeasures and suggestions

The development of new energy technologies and emerging industries in China has a good foundation, but as a strategic emerging industry, its development and growth are still restricted by multiple factors such as cost, market and policy [15]. In order to promote the high-quality development of new energy technologies and emerging industries in China, it is urgent to strengthen the top-level design and planning in 2035.

(1) redefine the category and orientation of emerging industries in the energy field, adjust the "new energy industry" in the development plan of strategic emerging industries issued by governments at all levels to "new energy technology industry", integrate the energy-saving industry from "energy-saving and environmental protection industry" to "new energy technology industry", and accurately lay out the development direction of new energy technologies and industries.

(2) Straighten out the management system and mechanism of energy industry, strengthen the construction of statistical system of new energy technologies and emerging industries, maintain the consistency, continuity and effectiveness of energy planning objectives and policies, avoid frequent adjustment of industrial policies and planning objectives, ensure the authority of planning related to new energy technology industries, and improve the energy market access policy [7].

(3) attach great importance to and accurately evaluate the "landing plan" of key scientific and technological projects or major projects in the energy field to ensure the feasibility and operability of project implementation. Strengthen the main role of enterprises in energy technology innovation decision-making, R&D investment, scientific research organization and application of achievements. Significantly increase investment in research and development of new energy technologies, strengthen research on key core technologies and project initiation, and accurately lay out major projects and demonstration areas.