Present situation and prospect of risk management industry

Present situation and prospect of risk management industry

Finance Recently, Dr. Zhu, President of the Financial Legal Behavior Research Association and former Vice President and Chief Risk Officer of China Construction Bank, delivered a speech on the theme of "Financial Risk Management in China in the Next Decade and the Future" at the Second Banking Risk Management Forum of the Asian Financial Cooperation Alliance, warning the possible risks in China's financial industry in the next decade.

Zhu believes that China's economy has entered a "new normal" and its development speed is moderate. The economic policy of destocking, de-capacity, reducing leverage, making up shortcomings and reducing costs focuses on the transformation of the supply side, which is also in line with the current economic reality.

The structural contradictions between the two macro-economies are gradually emerging, and the trend of economic fundamentals remains to be seen.

Zhu said that the first contradiction is the imbalance between the real economy and the virtual economy in the process of economic restructuring: by the end of 20 14, the ratio between the virtual economy and the real economy in China was 20.58, exceeding the optimal ratio and approaching the warning line level. At the same time, at present, the scale of virtual economy in China exceeds the needs of the development of real economy, which has a negative effect on improving the total factor productivity. Therefore, it is suggested to improve the access conditions of financial institutions and capital markets. Ensure the coordination of the development of the virtual economy and the real economy, avoid the excess liquidity of the virtual economy, and guide the funds to flow to the real economy accurately and efficiently.

The second contradiction is that the savings rate is too high: by comparison, the savings rate in the United States is 5%, while that in China is 55%. Investment-led development dividends (such as demographic dividends, environmental dividends, resource dividends, etc.). ) I am exhausted. In addition, the social security system is not perfect.

To truly solve these two economic contradictions, we can only really reduce taxes and use consumer finance to promote development, thus digesting risks.