Case analysis The debate about whether state-owned banks are sold cheaply has entered the 2 1 century. In response to its commitment to join the WTO, China introduced foreign strategic partners.

The answer comes from the financial answer of "Daoke Baba" TV University.

With the deepening of banking reform in China, the problem that state-owned banks may be "sold at a low price" in the shareholding system reform has once again become the focus of public opinion. Although the governors of big banks, represented by Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, refused to sell at a low price in turn, the controversy caused by this seems to have not subsided. Perhaps, a similar query is a fatalistic "shadow" in the process of state-owned assets reform, which tells us that the unprecedented market economy reform that China is currently experiencing is doomed to be not smooth sailing. It's for a reason. The statement that state-owned banks sold at low prices began to cross, and the two banks successfully went public. In all fairness, the appearance of this kind of voice is almost inevitable. As far as the general rule is concerned, as Fang Xinghai, deputy general manager of Shanghai Stock Exchange, pointed out: "Before listing, the share transfer price can only be equal to or slightly higher than the net asset value, but when strategic investors are introduced, the share transfer price is the initial price, which can be much higher than the net asset value. In addition, strategic investors hope that banks can go public after investment. Let them invest first and then go public, there will be a question of when they can go public in the future and at what price. This uncertainty will weaken the willingness of strategic investors to invest, thus reducing the number and amount of strategic investors we attract. " This is indeed the case. On the private placement level, according to the incomplete statistics of consulting firm Anbang, from 200/KLOC-0 to August 2005, at least six joint-stock commercial banks and five city commercial banks in China have introduced foreign investors, and almost every bank has sold shares close to the upper limit. Among the four major state-owned commercial banks, China Construction Bank will get about 15 shares for about US$ 4 billion, and China Bank will get about US$ 3 billion for 10 shares. Now, ICBC is about to exchange about 10 for about $3 billion. In addition, Temasek's 3 10 shares in Bank of China are also under approval. Due to the lack of necessary reference frame, the price difference between these equity transactions and future listing and circulation was "hidden" for some time until the listing of Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Construction Bank. For example, HSBC once bought shares in Bank of Communications at the price of 1.86 yuan per share, which was equivalent to 1.76 times of the net assets of Bank of Communications at the end of 2003. The P/B ratio of Bank of America's shareholding in CCB is 1. 15 times, and that of Temasek is 1. 19 times. Previously, the highest P/B ratio of foreign investors in Chinese banks was 1.8 times that of Hang Seng Bank and 1.54 times that of Citibank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank. Listing has brought an intuitive and determinable price difference. On the first day of listing, BOCOM rose 13 on the basis of the issue price of HK$ 2.50. Since then, the share price has risen steadily, and the current increase has exceeded 30%. The situation of CCB is similar. Although it is not as sought after as Bank of Communications, the price-to-book ratio of the issue price has reached 1.96 times. With the above-mentioned "basic" facts, other questions began to come from time to time. For example, in 2004, ICBC made a profit of 74.7 billion yuan. The exchange of $3 billion for the equity of ICBC 10 means that foreign investors can recover their investment within four years, and the equity premium of ICBC after listing has not been taken into account. All this leads to the conclusion that banks in China are being sold at low prices. In view of the above problems, the voices from banks and management made corresponding responses. Guo Shuqing, Chairman of CCB, pointed out: "There is a close relationship between the two prices (entry price and issue price). Intermediaries and investors agree that one of the highlights of CCB's investment is the participation of internationally renowned financial institutions. Strategic investors will improve corporate governance, bring technical support and face future market risks with us. These are the benefits of intangible assets. As far as the transfer price is concerned, it is also much higher than the book net assets. Especially considering that the two institutions also promised to buy some shares at the price of public listing, on average, it is much higher. " Jiang, chairman of the Bank of Communications, not only recognized the promotion of the issuance process by introducing foreign investors, but also calculated an account from the perspective of other shareholders. He said that after the listing of Bank of Communications, the share price rose, and the state-owned shareholders with the highest shareholding ratio benefited the most, realizing the preservation and appreciation of state-owned assets. After the listing, the proportion of state-owned shares and state-owned legal person shares of Bank of Communications is 64.74, including 2 1.78 of the Ministry of Finance, 2 12. 13 of the Social Security Fund and 6.55 of Huijin. All the shares held by the Social Security Fund and Huijin Company are converted into H shares, and all of them can be circulated after 1 year. According to the issue price, the shares held by the Ministry of Finance and Huijin Company during the financial restructuring of Bank of Communications increased by 1.66 times, and the shares held by the social security fund increased by 47.78 times. Calculated by1stock price on October 25th165438+HK$ 3.375, it increased by 2.5 1 times and 95 times respectively. In addition to the price-based estimate, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, also talked about his views on the choice of the reform path of state-owned banks. He believes that "after a period of reform, many industries have realized that only by truly making industries and enterprises stronger, healthier and more competitive can they contribute to the greatest interests, security and stability of the national economy without continuous subsidies and losses from the state." In fact, whether there is long-term investment value of mainland financial enterprises has always been a controversial topic: on the one hand, due to the strong support of the government and market monopoly, they are often regarded as "potential gold mines", especially when the valuation level is close to or even lower than the international average; But on the other hand, the constantly exposed business scandals and weak governance level have also made them questioned. The Financial Times once commented rudely that "there is a gap between official statements and business reality in corporate governance of China enterprises". For example, as early as last August, Royal Bank of Scotland indicated that it was considering investing in China. However, at the shareholders' meeting of Royal Bank of Scotland held on April 2 1, some shareholders expressed dissatisfaction with the plan to invest 2 billion pounds in Bank of China, which was considered to be contrary to the strategy of improving shareholders' cash return formulated at the beginning of this year. Later, on August 4th, when Royal Bank of Scotland announced its results and indicated that it might invest in Asia, its share price fell sharply. Before the news of its participation in Bank of China was officially announced, its share price fell by more than 5%. In response to this reaction, UBS analysts pointed out that in the past five years, foreign banks often bought minority shares of Chinese banks at prices equivalent to 1.5 to 1.8 times the book value. However, according to the expected profit rate, long-term growth rate and dividend payout ratio of major domestic banks, the more realistic price should be 1.4 to 1.7 times the book value. In addition to concerns about static stock prices, the poor governance level of Chinese banks is even more daunting for foreign investors. Since last year, some mainland banks, including some listed banks or banks about to be listed, have been exposed from time to time, which shows that the banking reform in China still has a long way to go. It is true that through the shareholding system reform, the past bad debts can be cleared up and the non-performing loan ratio has also decreased, but the loan quality of these banks still has problems, especially in the case of a sharp slowdown in economic growth. This difference in understanding directly leads to the endless debate about whether it should be sold cheaply. In the view of economist Fan Gang, this is: "Different people may make very different expectations for the future income of the same asset for various reasons, including their differences in knowledge of various information ... But the problem is that due to the differences in expectations themselves, the final transaction price, as long as it is not the maximum of various expectations (generally it cannot be the maximum, Because there is bargaining between buyers and sellers, there will always be people who say that this transaction is a capital loss. At least those who make the biggest expectations will think that the transaction value is too low and a capital loss has occurred. " And his suggestion is, "for policy makers, there will always be people who call it' capital drain' anyway, and it is best to do what you should do."