This policy has brought new enthusiasm. Nearly half of the top 100 housing enterprises participate in urban renewal.

Songyang County, Lishui City, Zhejiang Province, is located in the southwest mountainous area of Zhejiang Province. Up to now, there are still more than 100 traditional villages with complete forms, including 75 traditional villages in China, which is called "the last secret place in the south of the Yangtze River".

In recent years, Songyang County has tried to protect traditional villages and "rescue old houses", and has invested nearly 300 million yuan successively, 100 more than 200 old houses have been protected and repaired. In addition, we explore five ways of land supply through innovation: requisition+listing, purchase+transfer, recovery+lease, storage+listing, approval+modification.

In recent years, China's urbanization process is accelerating, and the layout and structure of urban development are becoming more and more reasonable, but at the same time, it is also facing the status quo that urban development is becoming increasingly saturated and land resources are becoming increasingly scarce. In this context, the real estate market began to enter the stock era from the incremental era, and urban renewal has become a new growth pole for future urban development and a new way out for the layout of housing enterprises.

Policy blessing brings new enthusiasm

With the continuous advancement of urbanization, the sales scale of real estate has been expanding in recent years. At the same time, the supply of land in some first-tier and hot-spot second-tier cities is increasingly scarce, and the transformation of the three old cities and urban renewal have become a new way out.

According to the statistics of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, there are about 6.5438+0.7 million old residential areas in * *, involving more than 42 million residents, with a construction area of about 4 billion square meters. It is estimated that the investment will be as high as 4 trillion yuan, concentrated in first-tier cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and second-tier cities such as Xi, Wuhan and Tianjin. Urban development has entered the era of stock, and industrial development is facing new demands. Both urban construction and real estate development need to be found.

On July 24th, a symposium on real estate work was held at the central level to summarize the implementation of the long-term real estate mechanism in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Chengdu, Ningbo, Changsha and other cities 10, analyze the current real estate market situation and deploy the next phase of real estate key work. Among them, it is proposed to do a good job in housing security, promote the transformation of old urban communities and shanty towns according to local conditions, and focus on solving the housing problems of new urban citizens and young people.

According to industry analysis, on the one hand, the transformation of old urban residential areas has obviously increased, which will become an important booster for accelerating urbanization in the future; On the other hand, this year is the closing year of shed reform, and shed reform in some cities still has a certain turnover, which may still support the local market in the short term.

In fact, in the past two years, the policy deployment of three old transformations and urban renewal has been launched one after another. From July 2065438 to July 2009, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference proposed "implementing short-board projects such as the renovation of old urban residential areas, urban parking lots, urban and rural cold chain logistics facilities, and speeding up the construction of new infrastructure such as information networks". In February, 65438, the Central Economic Work Conference put forward that "it is necessary to increase the housing security for the needy people in cities, strengthen urban renewal and the transformation of existing housing, do a good job in the transformation of old urban communities, and vigorously develop rental housing".

In 2020, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other ministries and commissions have emphasized the promotion of the transformation of old residential areas from all aspects, including: including the transformation of old urban residential areas into the scope of special bond support; Encourage real estate development enterprises to participate in the transformation of old communities.

Industry analysts believe that in the future, the corresponding support and guarantee policies in the field of urban renewal will be continuously introduced and improved to support the smooth development of people's livelihood security and further stimulate effective investment and consumption in the real estate sector. Based on this, urban renewal and three old transformations will also become one of the main directions for the development of the real estate industry.

Top 100 housing enterprises have set foot in urban renewal.

At the local level, Guangzhou and Shenzhen South China, which have high urbanization rates, are at the forefront of the country in terms of urban renewal. Real estate companies also participated in the planning and arrangement. Taking the regional market in South China as an example, Country Garden, China Evergrande, Caesar, Vanke Real Estate, China Resources Land, Xuhui Holdings, China Aoyuan, Longguang Real Estate and Lv Jing China have taken the lead in layout.

An analyst of Han Yizhiku believes that the real estate industry has undergone earth-shaking changes in the 20 years since the reform of the commercial housing market in China. The sales amount of commercial housing in China reached 16 trillion yuan, and the sales amount of leading real estate enterprises exceeded 700 billion yuan. Leading housing enterprises will achieve a trillion-dollar scale in the next three years, and it is also a certain event that the industry concentration of the top 30 housing enterprises will reach 50% in the future.

"The real estate industry is gradually transitioning from an incremental market to a stock market. This means that the space for the growth of new houses is shrinking, and after a certain stage, it will gradually transition to a downward state and gradually maintain it at a certain level. " The source pointed out that "the stock era is coming, and it will become the new normal for housing enterprises to flock into the field of urban renewal."

According to the survey of the top 100 real estate enterprises by Ke Rui Real Estate Research Center, 47 of the top 100 real estate enterprises are involved in urban renewal. With the ceiling of the incremental real estate market peaking, it has become the knowledge of most real estate enterprises to find new performance growth points through urban renewal business.

"According to the annual report and public information, combing the situation of housing enterprises participating in urban renewal, it can be seen that nearly half of the listed housing enterprises 100 are involved in the field of urban renewal." Shen Xiaoling, a researcher at Ke Rui Real Estate Research Center, said that if the top 50 listed real estate enterprises are the center, the proportion will reach 6 1%.

In Shen Xiaoling's view, there are many reasons for housing enterprises to join the new track of urban renewal. First of all, the land supply in first-and second-tier cities is tightening, and the land reserves in first-and second-tier cities can be effectively supplemented through the transformation and redevelopment of old areas; Secondly, compared with competitive bidding, auction and auction, participating in urban renewal can obtain land at a lower land price, which means that enterprises can obtain higher profit margins; Finally, the objects of urban renewal and transformation are often urban villages and old urban areas. These projects are generally located in the core area of the center. If it enters the market after reconstruction, there will be better market expectations.

Han Yi also believes that the renovation of old houses is becoming the main battlefield of housing enterprises. "The stock houses built in different stages are facing certain transformation needs, or the appearance needs to be refurbished, or the infrastructure needs to be updated and upgraded, or the whole needs to be demolished and rebuilt, which provides a new path and direction for the sustainable development of enterprises in the real estate industry."

"Long cycle and high cost" has become a new challenge.

Although nearly half of the top 100 housing enterprises have arranged urban renewal business, the scale involved is also quite different due to factors such as settlement time, capital investment and operating experience. According to the public information disclosed by enterprises, it can be found that the scale of housing enterprises' participation in urban renewal is huge. Large-scale projects involve 100 projects with a total construction area of over 70 million square meters. Small-scale projects only participate in 1 project, which is less than 100 square meter.

In view of the urban renewal field in the stock age, Han Yi believes that project operation will become a new challenge for real estate enterprises. Especially in the industry environment of tight financing and slow sales growth, it is unwise to participate in urban renewal projects. "If bidding, auction and land acquisition is a short-term gameplay, then urban renewal is a medium-and long-term operation, planning for the longer-term development of enterprises. Compared with the rapid turnover mode of bidding, auction and land acquisition, urban renewal generally takes a long period and takes up a large amount of funds. "

For participating enterprises, capital will become the biggest challenge. The above-mentioned analyst Han Yizhiku pointed out, "Without sufficient funds, it may be difficult for enterprises to survive the long cycle of urban renewal projects. Under normal circumstances, except for some old factories with clear property rights and relatively short cycle, the cycle of old village reconstruction and old city reconstruction is generally long, and it is not uncommon to have a cycle of ten years. "

In addition, there are obvious differences between urban renewal and the sales model of bidding, auction and land construction. Taking the old village reconstruction as an example, the project cycle needs to sign a contract with the village collective or the government platform company to win the villagers' consent to complete the demolition compensation. After the demolition is completed, prepare the land, then apply for the land certificate, and finally enter the normal development and sales stage.

"The biggest difficulty lies in the compensation stage of demolition, and negotiation with villagers has become one of the biggest difficulties in testing enterprises." The source pointed out that there are some differences in urban renewal policies among cities, and it is generally necessary to win the consent of 100% or more than 90% before the demolition of the project can be carried out. Some old village projects still have unclear property rights, which will increase the risk of enterprise urban renewal project operation.

"Not only that, but the urban renewal policies of various cities are constantly being updated, and the requirements of some cities for enterprises are also constantly improving. For example, they must have experience in the transformation of the whole village, which also improves the entry threshold of enterprises to a certain extent. " The person pointed out.

Kerry's research on urban renewal projects in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai found that nearly 30 listed real estate enterprises have laid out urban renewal projects in these cities due to favorable policies and relatively open markets. However, in terms of enterprise participation, local state-owned enterprises have an absolute advantage. On the one hand, these enterprises generally undertake better government resources, have stronger bargaining power in project acquisition and land acquisition, and are often directly authorized by the government; On the other hand, local state-owned enterprises are more prominent in financing costs and channels and can resist financial pressure.

Han Yi pointed out that urban renewal has become a new direction of planning a new chapter in the era of stock, and it is also a sharp weapon to resist the risk of industry peaking, but not all enterprises can make achievements. Especially for some small and medium-sized enterprises, it is not appropriate to put too much energy into the field of urban renewal. "It is imperative to invest resources in projects that can be realized faster, pursue certain scale goals, gather resources, reduce the difficulty of financing, and accumulate strength for long-term sustainable development."