What are the prospects and directions of China's economic development?

with the rapid development of the new technological revolution, the international economic competition will mainly be technological competition, and human resources, as the carrier of science and technology, will surely become the support of a country's economic growth. It can be said that the development and utilization of human resources is a key factor for a country to improve its international competitiveness and an important source of economic and social development. At present, China is relatively short of capital and resources per capita and rich in human resources, and the labor force is the largest and most realistic advantage resource for China to participate in international competition. After China's entry into the WTO, it will further experience the process of economic globalization and directly participate in the increasingly fierce international competition. The development of human resources will also face new opportunities and challenges, which will eventually become the decisive factor for China to win the initiative in international competition.

1. Impact on the demand of human resources

Impact on the total demand of human resources

Employment is an important indicator reflecting the allocation of human resources, and it is also one of the focus issues that China is facing after China's entry into WTO. In the long run, China's accession to the WTO will promote the growth of foreign trade, attract foreign capital more effectively, and facilitate the transfer of international manufacturing industry to China, thus promoting the allocation of jobs in China and increasing the total employment. According to a forecast by the International Committee on Unemployment and Employment and the China International Association for the Development and Exchange of Talents? After China's entry into WTO, its annual GDP increased by 3 percentage points. All walks of life are generally optimistic about the long-term prospects of China's economic development and the trend of increasing employment after China's entry into WTO. However, in the short term, domestic enterprises are facing more fierce international competition, and enterprise reorganization, merger, closure and even bankruptcy will be more frequent, resulting in the reduction of jobs and the increase of structural unemployment in a certain extent.

Impact on the industrial structure of human resources

From the perspective of industrial structure, China's entry into WTO will have completely different effects on different industries. On the one hand, some industries will be greatly impacted, such as agriculture, automobile manufacturing, instrumentation, machinery manufacturing and so on, and the employment scale will shrink to a certain extent. On the other hand, some industries with competitive and comparative advantages are facing more room for development, such as mature labor-intensive manufacturing industries such as textiles and food processing, as well as emerging industries such as modern service industry and tourism.

Impact on the quality demand of human resources

The overall shortage of high-quality talents in China has become a serious social problem. After China's entry into WTO, the demand of the market for highly educated talents and workers' comprehensive quality is constantly improving, and the desire of the labor force to receive education and training to improve their employability is also increasing. At the same time, with the adjustment of economic structure, the demand for talents in some traditional industries will decrease day by day, and the demand for talents to adapt to the economic development model after China's entry into WTO is even more urgent, such as professionals in agriculture, information, finance, accounting, foreign trade, law and modern management, high-level scientific and technical talents in biotechnology, environmental protection technology, new materials and other fields, professionals who are familiar with WTO rules, adapt to the needs of international competition and can participate in solving international disputes, and cross-disciplinary and specialized negotiators. How to further expand the scale of education and training in China and provide multi-form and multi-level education services is one of the urgent requirements put forward by China's entry into WTO.

Impact on China's human resource flow

The impact of China's entry into WTO on China's human resource flow is reflected in three levels: international mobility, domestic inter-regional mobility and inter-enterprise mobility.

(1) The international competition for human resources is more intense. The shortage of high-tech talents in the 21st century will be a world phenomenon. There is a crisis of talent shortage not only in developing countries, but also in developed countries. According to statistics, in the next few years, there will be a shortage of 85, high-tech talents in the United States, 1, high-tech talents in Germany and 2, high-tech talents in Japan. After China's entry into WTO, the phenomenon that developed countries have always attracted and utilized talents from developing countries by virtue of their strong economic strength and superior scientific and technological environment will intensify.

On the one hand, the phenomenon of brain drain of senior professionals in China may be aggravated. For example, the number of computer talents in the United States is about 95, every year until 26, and most of them need to be recruited from China, India and other places. Therefore, we will face the problem of preventing and reducing the brain drain of senior professionals in China while expanding the investment and reserve of human resources in China. On the other hand, a large part of the employment opportunities brought by China's entry into WTO are difficult to meet the current domestic talent pool, such as the demand for professionals in foreign trade, finance and other industries, which requires us to introduce a large number of overseas human resources. In recent years, it is common for overseas students to return to the motherland and foreign professionals to work in China. This phenomenon will be more common in the future, which requires us to improve and target the relevant laws and systems and talent policies.

(2) The regional mobility of human resources has been further accelerated. The main trend of inter-regional flow of human resources is: poor areas → more developed areas → developed areas, while among cities it is: small and medium-sized cities → large and medium-sized cities → core cities. Since the reform and opening up, China's talent flow has basically followed this trend. For example, during the Ninth Five-Year Plan period, Shanghai introduced more than 26, domestic talents, more than 15, overseas students, established more than 9 enterprises for overseas students, with a total investment of 25 million US dollars, and introduced more than 5 foreign experts' intelligence for more than 9 times. Beijing, Shenzhen and other cities have also introduced policies to attract talents, which have initially formed a number of high-quality human resources-intensive talent highlands. After China's entry into WTO, with the loosening of population mobility policy and the maturity of labor market, the brain drain in underdeveloped areas will be further accelerated, and the gap of human resources level between regions will be further widened.

(3) The flow of talents among domestic enterprises has been further accelerated. Under the general trend of domestic market globalization, the competition of human resources among enterprises has also been marked by international competition. In the foreseeable period, the talent flow will still maintain the trend of "state-owned enterprises → private enterprises → foreign joint ventures → wholly foreign-owned enterprises". At present, state-owned enterprises are the net exporters of human capital and are in a relatively unfavorable position in the competition of human resources; A large proportion of professional and technical personnel needed by foreign-invested enterprises come from state-owned enterprises and institutions, especially those with high training costs and short market demand. However, we will also find that talents will constantly improve their professional skills and knowledge level in the process of mobility, which is conducive to the improvement of the overall quality of human resources in China. As long as we can effectively adjust the development and management of human resources, domestic enterprises can also benefit from the flow and competition of human resources by exploring and establishing their own advantages.

the impact on the development of education and training in China

(1) China's commitment to WTO in the field of education services

Education and training are the main means of human resources development. In the signing documents of WTO negotiation agreement, China has signed the General Agreement on Trade in Services. Among them, "educational service" has also been included in the category of service trade. According to Article 13 of the General Agreement on Trade in Services, except for teaching activities fully funded by governments of various countries? Except for military academies, all teaching activities that charge tuition fees and are of a commercial nature belong to the category of educational trade services, including basic education, higher education, adult education and technical training, and all WTO members have the right to participate in the competition. The WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services stipulates that, on the basis of mutual commitment to resolve their differences through negotiation and consultation, member countries urge governments of all countries to decentralize the power of running schools, gradually abolish restrictive education laws and regulations, open up the education market, and finally form a free and open education market around the world.

According to the relevant regulations of the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services, "educational service" mainly has the following four activities:

First, providing distance education services. WTO stipulates that Party A's member countries have the right to provide "cross-border" services to Party B's member countries. In the field of education, Member States of Party A are encouraged to provide distance education courses and services to Member States of Party B..

second, encourage studying abroad. The WTO encourages citizens of Party A's country to spend their services in Party B's country. In terms of education, citizens of Party A's country are encouraged to study and further their studies in Party B's country.

thirdly, we advocate running schools overseas. The WTO encourages Party A's member countries to establish commercial entities in Party B's member countries. In the field of education, educational institutions in Party A's country are allowed to set up wholly-owned or joint-venture schools in Party B's country to engage in teaching, scientific research and cultural exchange activities.

fourth, encourage the flow of professionals. The WTO encourages Member States of Party A to employ citizens of Member States of Party B to engage in professional services without discrimination. In the field of education, Member States of Party A are encouraged to accept citizens from Member States of Party B to engage in professional teaching, such as teaching foreign languages, mathematics or natural subjects.

China's commitment to educational services after China's entry into WTO mainly includes the following four aspects: China has not made a commitment to open the market for primary and junior high school education and military, police, political and party school education. ? There are no restrictions on accepting students from other member countries to study and train abroad. ? For higher education, adult education, high school education, preschool education and other education, we have made a limited commitment to open the market. Allow other member States to set up educational institutions of cooperative education or other forms of cooperative education in China, and allow foreign investors to hold shares in cooperative education institutions; Other member States should carry out educational services in the form of commercial existence in China, and only in the form of cooperative education, and cannot independently provide educational services to Chinese citizens in China; Chinese-foreign cooperation in running schools in China must abide by the Regulations on Chinese-foreign Cooperation in Running Schools. ? Foreign personal education service providers are employed or invited by China schools and educational institutions to provide education services in China. However, foreign personal education service providers must have a bachelor's degree or above, have been engaged in this major for more than two years, and have corresponding qualification certificates or professional titles.

(2) Impact of China's entry into WTO on China's education service market

The competition in the education service market has intensified. First of all, the pattern of higher education will be greatly challenged. In the past three years, through the substantial expansion of enrollment, although the number of college students in China has doubled, on the whole, China's higher education resources, especially high-quality resources, are still quite short. In recent years, many countries are very optimistic about China's education market, and have taken various measures to attract China students to study abroad, such as holding educational exhibitions, relaxing visas and working conditions. The number of Chinese students studying abroad is increasing. Joining WTO will relax the conditions for foreign institutions to enter China's cooperative education, and allow them to occupy a majority in capital investment. These higher education institutions, which have comparative advantages in capital investment, school-running mode and school-running experience, will greatly reduce their education costs after entering China, thus attracting consumers and impacting existing universities in China. Secondly, the market for vocational training and continuing education will be more open and the competition will be more intense.

the imbalance of the educational structure has increased. From the perspective of investment, China's entry into WTO will make the demand for talents more vigorous, and the involvement of overseas educational resources will also help speed up the cultivation of talents. However, overseas educational institutions will definitely consider their return on benefits. From the perspective of regional distribution, the focus of their education will be on economically developed areas; From the perspective of educational content, its focus will be on vocational education and higher education with strong market demand. The imbalance between the eastern and western regions in China will increase, and the situation of weak basic education and insufficient investment will become more obvious.

In the face of this challenge after China's entry into WTO, if we face up to and reform all kinds of drawbacks existing in China's higher education management system with a positive attitude, and establish a new education model under the socialist market economy model that is in line with China's national conditions and can be in line with international standards, we will turn pressure into motivation. In the short term, it is conducive to the reform and transformation of China's higher education management system, in the medium term, it is conducive to enhancing the competitiveness of China's educational institutions, and in the long term, it is conducive to a virtuous circle of China's educational development macro-environment.

Countermeasures and suggestions for China's human resources development after China's entry into WTO

How to cultivate talents, how to attract talents and how to manage talents are the main topics facing China's human resources development after China's entry into WTO. To meet the challenge of China's entry into WTO, countries, enterprises and individuals should play their respective roles on the basis of repositioning.

(1) Establish a market-oriented human resources training mechanism

China's talent education and training lacks market awareness, has not fully introduced the competition mechanism, universities are not sensitive to the demand of talent market, and China still lacks a solid institutionalized training system. At present, the most important thing is to establish a training mechanism and system that can better adapt to the changes in skills demand, establish a skill recognition system, and improve training quality. Construct a market-oriented, scientific and international education system, greatly improve the education and training level of talents in China, and carry out in-depth development of human resources.

1. Adhere to the concept of lifelong and diversified human resources development

The continuous development of science and technology and the constant change of the market require people to establish the concept of lifelong human resources development. At different stages of a person's life cycle, the growth and maturity speed of different kinds of intelligence are different. Only by paying attention to the scientific research of lifelong development can human resources development enter the rational stage from the perceptual stage.

while insisting on lifelong human resource development, we should insist on diversification of human resource development means to ensure the full development and application of human resources. With the rapid development of science and technology, human beings not only have a deeper and wider understanding of nature, but also have a deeper understanding of themselves. Therefore, the development of human resources, as the first resource in the contemporary era, is deeper and wider than any time in history, and the means of human resources development will become more diversified. On the basis of traditional school education, the development of human resources in China should develop various means such as on-the-job training, study tour, online university, distance teaching, academic discussion and talent salon, so as to meet the requirements of human resources in the era of world economic integration.

2. increase investment in human capital

with the continuous progress of science and technology and the change of social production mode, the status of human capital in the productive forces is gradually rising, and it plays an increasingly important role in economic development. Education and training is the main part of human capital investment, and it is also the most efficient and lowest cost weapon to deal with the trend of world economic integration. The development of human resources in China should increase the investment in human capital, adjust the investment structure on the premise of ensuring the continuous increase of educational funds invested by the state, regard the development of basic education and the improvement of the overall quality of the whole people as the top priority of government education investment, and gradually increase the state's investment in vocational and technical education; Expand educational investment channels, introduce the Private Education Law as soon as possible, clarify the legal status of social school-running subjects, and give play to the role of enterprises and social funds in the field of non-compulsory education.

3. combine education and training with market demand.

The development of human resources in China under the condition of world economic integration aims at improving the international competitiveness of the whole country. As the main part of human resources development, education and training should aim at market demand and serve the market. That is to say, we should establish a complete market-oriented education and training system, vigorously develop vocational education and training, and solve the problems that talents do not adapt to occupations and posts, and those who graduate from education and training cannot find jobs.

introduce advanced international models and strengthen the reform of education and training methods. In order to make China's human resources development serve China's participation in international competition, it is necessary to integrate the world economy.