Inflection point on the horizon! After the price increase of hogs, the high point of hog prices on New Year's Day and Spring Festival may have been established! What happened?

Introduction For the struggling pig farmers, the miserable November has left! According to the data, in November, the price of hogs is not satisfactory, the traditional consumption of the peak season, the price of hogs but sharply lower, the average monthly price of hogs fell by as much as 14.98%, in late October, the domestic self-propagation of pig rearing head of an average profit of up to 1,300 ~ 1,400 yuan, but, into the end of November, farming profits plummeted to 600 ~ 700 yuan / head, farming profitability of the collapse, the root cause of the price of hogs The center of gravity of the downward shift, and the key to cause pig prices lower in the peak season is the market mismatch between supply and demand, the demand is less than expected, the incremental increase in the supply of hogs highlights!

However, the tough November has gone high, into December, belatedly the southern pickle good gradually realized, pig prices inflection point to attack!

On the one hand, due to the recent significant drop in temperature in the domestic north and south regions, which also drove the enthusiasm of the terminal pork demand, superimposed on the mask problem restricts the transfer of regional pig sources, more rain and snow, grass-roots purchasing and marketing is not good, the abattoir hogs to the plant pig sources gradually reduce the amount of pig prices to support the gradual turn of the strong!

On the other hand, consumer benefits continue to cash, the weather in the south is low, accelerating the residents of the curing action, part of the region's food business has also increased the scale of pork purchases, slaughterhouses downstream demand is steeply increasing, but the beginning of the month grouping of pig enterprises out of the shrinkage, and the retailer, as well as the professional fattening farmers also have a sale of bullish sentiment!

Under the support of many parties, hog prices against the trend of strength, the average price of domestic hogs rose to 22.36 yuan / kg, but, after the hog price increase, New Year's Day, the Spring Festival hog prices of the high point or has been established!

A short-term hog price rise support is strong!

With the phenomenon of increased pickling in the southern region, the farmers' mood bullish turn thick, the phenomenon of pig pressure fence increased again, the market supply of pigs is low, the breeding side of the "chasing up" mood warming, especially, September to October, some of the second fertilization of high prices to make up for the bar in the low standard pigs, at this stage of the fence is facing a greater loss, the second fertilization! Price shyness under the mood, the domestic large weight hogs out of the pen to shrink, but the market by the pickling demand to enhance the slaughterhouse for the "cattle pig" purchasing mood is heating up, big pig supply shortage, the gap between the domestic standard fertilizer obviously widened, which further fueled the breeding side of the fence to increase the weight of the mood to support the short-term basis of the rebound of hog prices!

Second, the multi-short game intensified, pig prices rose into the quagmire!

In the short term, hog prices are supported by the pickle favor, prices continue to rise, the market chasing emotions, the average price of domestic hogs center of gravity increased significantly, the breeding end of the pressure column emotions gradually loosened, the profit-making fence emotions are warming up, into the middle and late December, with the gradual end of the phenomenon of the southern pickle, the breeding end of the panic fence emotions steeply increased, grouping of hog enterprises at the end of the year out of the volume of the market hog supply increased gradually, and retailers as well as secondary fattening panic, the market hogs supply. And the retailer as well as the second fattening panic out of the mood warming, domestic hog supply pressure to improve, the slaughterhouse procurement difficulties, and curing good, consumption to follow up on the fall, superimposed on the higher price of ordinary pork, the residents of the procurement willingness to be weak, into the middle and late December, the price of pigs may return to the decadent trend, rising into the production and marketing mismatch of the quagmire!

Three, New Year's Day and Spring Festival, pig prices are difficult to reach the "former high"!

December, pig prices "first rise and then fall" performance or will be obvious, but, into the end of December, by the New Year's Day favorable support, pig prices or will be rising sideways, into the New Year, although, the residents of the consumption of warming up, the phenomenon of making sausages in the northern region increased, some areas will also appear! "Kill the New Year's pig" favorable!

But, pork prices are too high, for the consumption of heat will still be a fatal blow, before the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, pork consumption boost or will be weak, the abattoirs start rate is low, but also only a week before the Spring Festival, by the downstream market stocking up, the abattoirs or have a significant increase in the performance of the rate of start rate, New Year's Day, the Spring Festival period, pig prices rise expected bias, however, the breeding side of the worries about the price of pigs warmed up after years, market The top quantity of pig sources may be further loose! After the New Year's Day holiday, pig prices may have a weak trend of shock, near the Spring Festival, the center of gravity of pig prices moved up, but the average price of hogs or difficult to rise above the "former high", I think, before the Spring Festival, the price of hogs or difficult to rise above the 25 ~ 26 yuan / kg!

The inflection point is coming! After the price of hogs, New Year's Day, the Spring Festival hog price high point or has been established! What happened? In this regard, how do you think about it? The above is the author's personal opinion, pictures from the network! #Hog prices#