What do people think about the development of domestic film and television drama

As of January 23, 2020, seven New Year's Eve films collectively announced that they would be withdrawn from the schedule and be shown again at a later date; as of 24:00 on February 12, there were 52,526 confirmed cases of new coronavirus-infected pneumonia, with 1,367 cumulative fatal cases. The severe epidemic has had a huge impact on the movie and TV drama industry, which itself did not develop well in 2018. The Spring Festival box office has a large proportion for the total box office of the year, and the dismal box office of the Spring Festival in 2020 will have a large impact on the performance of the movie box office of the whole year of 2020, and it is expected that the box office of the whole year of 2020 will be reduced by nearly tens of billions of dollars.

Epidemic impact on the film and television industry upstream and downstream

The outbreak of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic coincided with the Spring Festival, and the impact of the epidemic on the film industry is huge. The impact on the upstream of the film and television industry chain includes the fact that since January 25, 2020, many film and television bases such as Hengdian Film and Television City and Xiangshan Film and Television City have been closed, and all filming activities of the crews have been stopped, and the filming scenes in the precincts have been shut down, including the filming bases, the location filming bases, and the studios. The impact on the downstream of the film industry chain includes January 23, seven New Year's Eve films collectively announced the withdrawal of stalls, choose a date to be shown again, all the withdrawal of the film can be unconditionally refunded in full; offline theaters since January 24, all suspended operations.

The new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is severe, since the Spring Festival extended to February 3, a number of provinces and cities issued a document to delay the resumption of work again to February 9th. The film and television shooting has a crowd more intensive characteristics, the severity of the epidemic makes the film and television shooting by a greater impact on the theater is a heavy blow, the epidemic for the film and television stock price impact is self-evident. As of February 13, 2020, a number of film and television stock prices fell, the century Tianhong fell even reached 10%.

The approval of film and television is tightening, and the outbreak of the epidemic has made it worse

The review of 2019 on culture, film and television content is relatively tightening, and the film and television industry in 2019 filed 905 dramas for the whole year and 3,440 episodes, which slipped by 22.2% and 24.8%, respectively, compared with 2018. Overall, the number of TV dramas filed in 2019 is lower than the number filed in 2018, which reflects the tightening of the regulatory authorities and the overall development of the film and television drama industry to slow down the pace. Before the epidemic, the film and television drama industry itself is in the stage of strengthening industry regulation and the formation of industry norms, and the epidemic is undoubtedly adding to the development of China's film and television drama industry.

The impact of the epidemic on the box office during the Spring Festival is comprehensive, and the Spring Festival slot is crucial for theaters, and the box office during the Spring Festival accounts for a larger proportion of the total box office of the film. According to cat's eye data, the box office revenue of the Spring Festival slot in 2019, 2018 and 2017 was 5.859 billion yuan, 5.770 billion yuan and 3.420 billion yuan, accounting for 14.2%, 15.2% and 11.4% of the total box office of domestic films in these three years, which accounted for a larger proportion of the total box office of domestic films.2020, the box office on the first day of the New Year was only 1.81 million yuan, and the national cinema scheduling fell to less than 1,500 The scene. Before the outbreak of the epidemic, a number of brokerage houses for this year's Spring Festival file mostly given about 7 billion yuan box office expectations, the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic will have a direct impact on the 2020 annual box office results of the movie, the 2020 Spring Festival file or loss of about 7 billion yuan box office, the situation may not be very optimistic.

Many listed companies released 2019 annual performance forecast. Among the 11 companies in the statistics, there are 6 losses and 5 profits, and the overall view is still in the winter period. The epidemic is bringing a major impact on the film and television industry, the film and television project stoppage, which means a longer production cycle as well as an increase in the cost of filming, will bring different degrees of impact to the entire industrial chain of the film and television industry.

But it can be objectively estimated that after the end of the epidemic, the movie and TV drama industry will have a more optimistic development. The outbreak of the epidemic is a great challenge to the film and television drama industry, but also an opportunity to force the industry to innovate and develop. After the end of the epidemic, the backlog of many high-quality products will look for better opportunities to screen, while the public also need entertainment activities, back to normal life, this time the theater will usher in a significant rebound.

-- The above data comes from the China Film Industry Market Outlook and Investment Strategy Planning Analysis Report

by Prospect Industry Research Institute.