New energy vehicles will enter the era of10 million vehicles. In the next three to five years, 80% of the fuel vehicle production capacity will be shut down and turned around.

In the past 2022, the new energy vehicle market developed rapidly, with sales approaching 7 million vehicles and penetration rate reaching 25%. At the same time, the phenomenon of industry reshuffle continues to be staged.

In the era of fuel vehicles, the situation that joint venture brands monopolize the mid-to-high-end market has been broken by traditional independent brands such as BYD and GAC Ai 'an, as well as new forces to build cars. In 2023, new energy vehicles officially bid farewell to the era of subsidies. Tesla started the first shot of price reduction in the New Year, and technology companies such as Xiaomi and Baidu are about to enter the market. The war in the field of new energy is imminent.

New energy vehicles will enter the era of ten million vehicles.

"In 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China will increase by 40% year-on-year, and the penetration rate will be close to 40%. The overall sales volume is expected to reach 6.5438 million units. " Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary general of China Electric Vehicle committee of 100, recently said at the media communication meeting in committee of 100 in 2023 that it is almost impossible for China to double the year-on-year growth of new energy vehicles in 2023, but China is expected to become the first country in the world where the new energy vehicle market has entered the era of 10 million vehicles.

Factors such as subsidy recession and supply chain uncertainty have adversely affected the new energy vehicle market. Among them, the withdrawal of subsidies will lead to the increase of consumers' car purchase cost as high as 1.26 million yuan/vehicle, which will have a certain impact on new energy vehicles in the middle price range.

"In the next three to five years, with the development of new energy vehicles, 80% of fuel vehicle brands will shut down and turn to produce a large number of idle production lines." Zhang Yongwei said that fuel car companies will definitely make a final struggle, or accelerate the transformation, or seek a new way out, but considering the high cost of new technology, some car companies and products will be eliminated from the market at an accelerated pace.

Judging from the market in 2022, new energy vehicles are accelerating to devour the market share of fuel vehicles. BYD surpassed FAW-Volkswagen to become the domestic sales champion in 2022. Judging from the development of the automobile market in recent two years, under the fierce competition, some products of joint venture brands have gradually faded out of the market, including second-tier joint venture brands such as GAC Fick and Renault, which have low capacity utilization rate and have now withdrawn from the market. In sharp contrast, thanks to the rapid development of new energy, the market share of independent brands has been increasing, reaching 50% for the first time in 2022.

Judging from the market structure, in the past few years, the electric vehicle market has shown a market structure of "small in the middle and big at the two ends", with electric vehicles at both ends accounting for the majority. "The market situation will change this year, and the phenomenon of dumbbell-shaped to spindle-shaped will become more obvious, and the middle price area will be the main battlefield." Zhang Yongwei told reporters that it is estimated that1500,000 ~ 300,000 yuan vehicles will account for nearly 50%, and mid-range vehicles will become the main battlefield. This is the market where gasoline and electric vehicles are killed, and it is also the focus of competition between domestic independent brands and joint venture brands. There will be price wars and brand wars in this field.

Zhang Yongwei believes that the incremental space of the new energy vehicle market in the future will mainly be in the sinking market of the third line and below. According to a statistical data provided by the 100 Committee, during the period of1~1in 2022, the sales of new energy vehicles in cities with second and third grades and below accounted for 54% of the country. Among them, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in third-tier cities such as Chongzuo, Sanya and Liuzhou has surpassed that of first-tier cities such as Shenzhen and Shanghai.

According to committee of 100's forecast, more than 65,438+000 new energy vehicles will be listed in China in 2023, which will improve the responsiveness of car companies to diversified and emerging consumer demand. "In the past, a new car platform for fuel vehicles produced a car every three years. Now an electric car platform can produce a new car in an average of one and a half years. The supply capacity of new energy vehicles in the market has been unprecedentedly strengthened, and the application of new technologies such as intelligence will become a new bright spot. " Zhang Yongwei said that new energy vehicle products are becoming more and more mature and will further seize the fuel vehicle market.

In addition, the expected decline in battery costs will also promote the development of the new energy vehicle market. In the electric vehicle market, batteries still occupy the main cost. In the past year, the price of raw materials for batteries soared, putting pressure on new energy vehicle companies. In 2023, the power battery capacity will be released centrally, and the bottleneck problem of battery supply will be greatly improved. At the same time, the price of some battery raw materials will gradually return to a rational state, and the innovation of battery technology will also push the cost down further.

Market reshuffle

In the sales ranking of new energy vehicle enterprises in 2022 released by the Federation, BYD ranked first with 1.8 million vehicles, far exceeding other vehicle enterprises; Judging from the top ten companies, except Tesla China, the other nine are independent brands.

It is worth noting that in the top ten list, only Nezha Auto and Li are among the top ten companies. In addition to BYD, Tesla and SAiC-GM-Wuling, Geely Automobile and GAC AI ranked fourth and fifth, with sales of 305,000 vehicles and 274,000 vehicles respectively. Compared with the achievement of 6,543,800 vehicles, traditional independent brands have obvious advantages.

In the past few years, independent brands have ushered in a reshuffle in the field of new energy. Around 20 14, the new forces of car-making began to rise, and then the number of car-making enterprises with capital blessing gradually increased, and the production capacity of new energy vehicles continued to increase. However, the threshold for building a car is high. Due to the problems of strategy and capital, the new forces of building cars have fallen in large numbers, and the capital market has begun to become rational. The new car-making forces such as Weilai, Tucki and Ideality are growing, with annual sales reaching 65,438+10,000 vehicles. In 2022, the sales of independent new energy brands launched by traditional independent car companies increased rapidly, reshaping the market structure.

Judging from the development in the past few years, in 2022, BYD and GAC Aian both entered a stage of rapid growth. For BYD, it has advantages in the core three-electricity field, and the outbreak of the hybrid market has promoted the rapid growth of BYD's sales. Judging from the products launched by GAC Aian and Geely New Energy, the main sales models cover the mid-end market. In 2022, the pattern of electric vehicle market began to gather in the mid-end market, which enabled some traditional independent car companies to develop rapidly. In addition, although new energy brands such as Guangzhou Automobile Ai 'an rely on traditional car companies, they operate independently, have flexible organizational structure and can respond to the market quickly. "GAC Aian has been born out of the traditional matrix and will promote new energy vehicles in a more independent way." Zhang Yongwei told reporters.

Compared with the new force of building cars, although the head enterprises have entered the threshold of annual sales of 654.38+10,000 vehicles, the competition they face is becoming more and more fierce. According to the report released by Geshi Automobile Research Institute, in the price range of more than 300,000 yuan, Ideal and Weilai are more competitive in brand and product positioning, but the traditional independent brands that are more familiar to China consumers have begun to try to attack Ideal and Weilai with skillful cost performance. In addition, in the range of 200,000 ~ 300,000 yuan, Tesla once had almost no rivals, and Han, which BYD focused on, just tied with Tesla in 2022 because of its wheelbase, especially its cruising range. However, in this interval, all the models sold by China New Force have no advantages in wheelbase and cruising range.

"The future competition in the automobile industry should return to the essence of advanced manufacturing and improve the technical level of advanced manufacturing, so as to improve product quality and control costs. For example, Tesla first introduced integrated die casting technology, including production management and process management technology, which greatly reduced the manufacturing cost of automobiles and had room for price reduction. " Zhang Yongwei told reporters that the market structure is still changing, far from being formed, but a large number of brands must be eliminated. He believes that some high-end brands are sinking into the market, and luxury car companies should focus on the field of economical products, which means that competition will become more intense, and the process of clearing the market is the process of brand elimination. After seeing the market, enterprises should quickly launch products and speed up investment, and enterprises with slow pace will be eliminated.