Is your hometown among the top ten declining cities in China?

In recent years, Detroit, a once brilliant city in the United States, filed for bankruptcy, which sounded the alarm for the development of China. Due to the exhaustion of resources or industrial decline, the top ten brilliant cities in China are gradually declining.

In recent years, Detroit, once a brilliant automobile city in the United States, filed for bankruptcy, which sounded the alarm for the development of China. 20 1 1 China published a list of "resource-exhausted cities", with a total of 69 cities on the list. Cities supported by resource-based or single traditional industries, after long-term over-exploitation, are now facing the embarrassing situation of resource depletion and industrial decline. What is the current situation of these cities, and where should we go?

First, the road to industrial transformation of resource-based cities

It seems that resource-based cities can never escape the fate of "construction-development-shrinking-scrapping". Relying on the exploitation of resources for a long time, ignoring the diversified development of industries, technological innovation and environmental pollution will inevitably lead to the decline of cities. These cities are often born of resources and die of resources.

1、? Ordos: The Disillusionment of the Myth of Coal Capital

This once-unknown third-tier city in Inner Mongolia has created a series of economic myths-GDP once surpassed Hong Kong, and house prices almost reached "Northern Guangzhou". The coal industry in Ordos accounts for nearly 70% of the total economic output and 50% of the total fiscal revenue. Ordos, with "black gold resources", was in the limelight in golden decade, a coal industry. Unfortunately, the huge wealth brought by coal was squandered by the city in the real estate market. According to public information, in 2006, the average price of Ordos property market was about 1.200 yuan, and after three years, the average price of houses soared to about 7,000 yuan.

The myth was shattered at the end of 20 1 1. The volume and price of coal plummeted and the property market was depressed. Ordos, which is rich in coal, is in debt crisis. Obviously, relying solely on coal resources has a single industrial structure and a short industrial chain. Extensive production leads to environmental deterioration and backward production capacity. At the same time, he is keen on real estate speculation, which makes the development road of Ordos narrower and narrower, and the bubble is full of hidden dangers. Finally, overnight, the myth was broken.

In recent years, urban industries are seeking transformation, taking the equipment manufacturing base as a powerful engine and introducing top 500 enterprises and high-tech industries. "At present, the added value of non-coal industries in the city accounts for 30% of the industrial added value. It is estimated that by 20 17, the added value of non-coal industries will account for about 50% of the industrial added value, and it is expected to form a number of industrial clusters, industrial parks and large enterprises with an output value exceeding 100 billion yuan. " Complete the transformation from extensive production to intensive production.

2. Shenmu in northern Shaanxi: the scenery of the coal kingdom is no longer there.

"Prosperous because of coal, rich because of coal", Shenmu has built an enviable high-quality coal kingdom with free medical education and other public services. The county's proven coal reserves exceed 50 billion tons. In recent years, Shenmu has become one of the top ten counties in Shaanxi and one of the top 100 counties in China.

Shenmu, also suffering from "dependence" on coal resources, has a large number of illegal fund-raising cases in the context of the sluggish coal market and tight capital chain. Moreover, the excessive exploitation and use of coal for many years has also caused serious damage to the local ecological environment. Although local officials have repeatedly denied the government's financial crisis, according to the analysis of Yulin's economic operation in the first quarter of 20 13, in the first quarter of this year, 42 of 99 local coal mines in Shenmu County stopped production, and another 50 were in the process of infrastructure construction, but they did not actually start. Only seven of them are in normal production, so the coal industry cannot support the local economy. The large-scale decline of logistics, commerce and coal machines attached to the coal industry has led to tight local finance.

Faced with the exhaustion of resources, the single-structure industry cannot support the local economic development, and Shenmu County has also begun to seek industrial transformation and upgrading. The local government's preparation of charitable funds was questioned; The industry corresponding to resources cannot be driven; The upstream and downstream technological innovation and agricultural innovation say more and do less, and the industry is difficult, which fails to bring corresponding benefits. The road to transformation is full of difficulties.

3. Yumen, Gansu: Both gathering and dispersing are due to oil.

1939, the first oil well in Yumen laojunmiao produced oil. In the decade before liberation, oil production accounted for more than 90% of the national total in the same period, which laid the foundation for China's oil industry. After the founding of New China, the state sent a lot of talents and technology to Yumen. It is prosperous, with a population of nearly 1 10000 and a developed economy.

However, over-exploitation, oil production began to decline, and environmental damage was serious. From 1.959, the highest 1.4062 million tons, to 1.998, 380,000 tons, the earliest oil field developed in China has now become the smallest and most difficult oil enterprise. In March 2009, Yumen City was listed as the second batch of resource-exhausted cities by the State Council.

At this time, the population here is less than 30 thousand, and the economy is depressed. With the bankruptcy of enterprises and the sharp decrease of self-employed, the depression of industrial economy has finally affected the shrinkage of local tax sources, and a large number of corporate deposits and household savings deposits have flowed out. However, the partial relocation of oilfield enterprises and the relocation of living bases have caused a large number of population migration. High-income and high-consumption groups and talents with high labor quality have flowed out, but poor groups and low-quality agricultural population have moved in, and their consumption power and production motivation are seriously lacking.

Xinyu Gate turned to develop wind power resources, becoming the fifth largest wind power base in China and the largest wind power base in Gansu, and building a new energy industry city. However, its petrochemical industry will remain the leading industry in the city for a long time to come, and the abnormal industrial structure of "one oil dominates" will be difficult to change.

4. Huangshi, Hubei Province: the mine is exhausted and the city is declining

Another city rich in mineral resources, but listed by the State Council as the second batch of resource-exhausted cities, is Huangshi, Hubei. According to public information, Huangshi's gold reserves account for 88% of the province. Although its iron ore reserves only account for 23.7% of the province's total, its output ranks first in the province and it is rich in forest resources. In Huangshi City, the "cornucopia of the south of the Yangtze River", most enterprises have a "mine-loving complex"-"Anyway, we have mines, and the total economic output is still in the forefront in the province."

This resource city tries to rely on the compensation mechanism of resource development and the assistance mechanism of declining industries to reduce the output value of resource development, increase the proportion of manufacturing and agriculture, and complete economic transformation. However, the backwardness of the tertiary industry, insufficient technical production capacity, dependence on resources and the future development of the city are still full of hidden dangers.

5. Dongchuan, Yunnan: the dilemma of "Tiannan Copper Capital"

Dongchuan, Yunnan is also among the resource-exhausted cities. Although after more than 2000 years of mining and smelting, Dongchuan is still one of the six major copper-producing bases in China, with the second geological reserve and the third copper content in the concentrate. Dongchuan Copper Industry still plays an important role in China's nonferrous metals and economic development.

However, after thousands of years of exploitation, mineral resources are on the verge of exhaustion. In addition, Dongchuan mainly mines copper resources, and other industries serve copper mining. This single industrial structure makes Dongchuan's economic development weak and will lose money. In addition, the geographical location of Sichuan-Yunnan mountainous area, which is the six major debris flow distribution areas in China, also makes it suffer from debris flow disasters, with serious soil erosion, accounting for more than 70% of the whole territory.

In recent years, according to news media reports, Dongchuan Industry began to use Longdongge Highway to connect industrial nodes in series, forming an industrial economic development pattern of "connecting points by lines and bringing areas by points". At the same time, give priority to the development of characteristic tourism and modern service industry, and vigorously develop the tertiary industry. The establishment of the re-employment special zone has effectively promoted re-employment. As of August this year, the registered unemployment rate in Dongchuan has dropped to 1 1.54%. Dongchuan's road to transformation is getting smoother and smoother, and it is expected to get rid of the dilemma of resource-based cities.

Second, the road to industrial upgrading of single-structure cities

6. Jingdezhen: the loss of the Millennium porcelain capital

Jingdezhen was once proud of its status as the "Millennium Porcelain Capital". As the only city in the world that has survived uninterrupted for ten centuries by relying on one industry, almost every household in Jingdezhen is engaged in ceramics-related work. Jingdezhen ceramics, as the official kiln of past dynasties, once occupied 20% of the national output after liberation and became synonymous with excellent quality. Until now, when it comes to China ceramics, the first geographical term that appears in many people's minds is still "Jingdezhen". In China, there are not many brands that can occupy a place as the whole industry.

However, Jingdezhen, supported by an industry, has embarked on the road of decline under the disintegration of sales channels and the fierce competition of southern enterprises. But only do high imitation products, lack of innovation. "There are thousands of identical workshops in the city, and everything they do is similar. For dealers, this is a good opportunity to lower prices. " At present, Jingdezhen mainly sells porcelain by exhibition and export to European market. However, due to the lack of funds, large-scale production capacity and modern enterprise management and talents, porcelain is gradually declining.

The single industrial structure and small workshop production mode hindered the "revival" of Jingdezhen. In fact, relying on the technology accumulated for thousands of years, introducing modern management and opening up sales channels, Jingdezhen can still get out of the predicament and enjoy a good reputation at home and abroad again.

7. Changchun: Detroit, China

Changchun, China Automobile City, the automobile industry accounts for 70% of the city's total economic output, mainly producing auto parts, and has been trying to replicate the glory of Detroit.

The financial crisis has made this "one industry is the only one" automobile city encounter a cold winter, and also exposed various problems behind the rapid growth, such as a single industrial structure and a short industrial chain. According to authoritative statistics, in the first three quarters of 2008, the cumulative growth rate of automobile production in Changchun decreased by 17.2 percentage points year-on-year, of which the automobile inventory reached 90,000, and the inventory increased by 2.6 times. At the same time, there are endless news about the suspension or reduction of production of Changchun automobile enterprises: Jetta has reduced production, New Bora, Magotan and Sagitar have stopped production, and the production lines of Old Bora and Katie have stopped production. ...

Fortunately, Changchun has rich agricultural resources and its own developed rail transit industry in the three northeastern provinces. Facing the Detroit crisis, Changchun has lengthened the agricultural product processing industry and the railway passenger car manufacturing industry, improved its innovation ability and reduced its dependence on the automobile industry.

8. Guangzhou: negative growth of automobile manufacturing industry.

Automobile manufacturing is a strategic leading industry in Guangzhou, which has developed rapidly in recent years. Guangzhou automobile industry is dominated by Japanese, and many Japanese automobile brands choose Guangzhou as their production base in China.

According to China News Service, since the Diaoyu Islands issue broke out between China and Japan last year, the output value of Guangzhou automobile industry, mainly Japanese cars, has been greatly affected, showing a significant decline. Wang Xudong, director of the Guangzhou Economic and Trade Commission, revealed that "in 20 12, the output value of Guangzhou's automobile industry decreased by 6.3% year-on-year, of which the output value of the whole vehicle decreased by 30 billion yuan, the output value of the whole automobile industry chain decreased by 45 billion yuan, the industrial tax revenue of Guangzhou decreased by about 3%, and the tax revenue of the whole city decreased by 1%."

Following the "Waterloo" of Japanese car sales, Guangzhou's car license restriction policy has also reduced its annual car sales by half. In addition, Guangzhou has also encountered the growth dilemma of automobile output value. Since August last year, the total output value of Guangzhou automobile manufacturing industry has been negative for seven consecutive months.

According to the analysis of Nanfang Daily, in the last five years to 10, the demand of urban residents for automobiles has increased rapidly, and automobile consumption is approaching the platform period. Although there is still room for improvement, new leading industries should be considered in advance. "If Guangzhou does not plan ahead, there will be faults in the leading industries and the economic downturn will be inevitable."

Guangzhou turned its attention to strategic emerging industries. According to the data of Nanfang Daily, the municipal finance has invested 4 billion yuan annually to support the development of strategic leading industries and 2 billion yuan annually to support strategic emerging industries for five consecutive years. We will promote the development of a new generation of information technology, bio-health, new materials and high-end manufacturing industries by means of free subsidies and loan interest subsidies, and cultivate three hundred billion yuan of emerging industries such as fashion creativity, new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, and new energy automobile industry.

9. Wenzhou: a dead end for labor-intensive industries

Since the reform and opening up, Wenzhou has developed a number of labor-intensive light industries such as shoes, clothing, leather, glasses, pens and lighters with the help of cheap labor. These industries take advantage of cost and price to participate in international and domestic market competition, obtain rapid development, form industrial agglomeration, and become the core part of existing industries in Wenzhou. /kloc-in the past 0/0 years, the accumulated foreign investment of existing local industrial enterprises and enterprises that have moved abroad in Wenzhou has exceeded 10 billion yuan, mainly in the industries of clothing, footwear and plastic products.

The enterprise loan capital chain was cut off, and the business owners chose to flee in panic. Wenzhou crisis shocked the whole country. This crisis reflects that Wenzhou's manufacturing and commercial industries are single in structure, slow in adjustment, small in scale and low in competitiveness. There are less than 50 industrial enterprises whose sales output value exceeds 10 billion yuan, which lacks the effective drive of leading industrial enterprises.

During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, the growth rate of added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Wenzhou ranked last in Zhejiang Province, with the last three years ranking last in the province. In addition, due to the rapid increase in the cost of production factors, the return on capital of industrial enterprises in the region is decreasing, the profits of enterprises cannot be guaranteed, and the phenomenon of Wenzhou enterprises transferring outward is prominent. The scale and technology of overseas investment projects of these enterprises far exceed those of local enterprises.

Relying only on labor-intensive industries, Wenzhou's economic development is declining. This industrial model lacks core technology, has low profit rate and is easily influenced by the market environment. With the increase of labor costs, the acceleration of RMB appreciation, and the tightening of monetary policy, the superposition of various factors finally crushed these small and medium-sized enterprises that were already difficult to operate. Even if monetary policy is not tightened, these small and medium-sized enterprises will face the threat of rising labor costs and RMB appreciation, and the crisis will come sooner or later. As soon as this model is born, it is doomed to their fate.

Transformation is imminent, which depends not only on the efforts of enterprises, but also on the cooperation of national policies. Strengthen financing and loans for small and medium-sized enterprises and provide necessary financial support for transformation.

10, Haikou: The real estate bubble burst.

1before June 1993, there was a gold rush in Hainan. 1June, 1992, according to the data of Netease China manufacturing, the real estate investment in Hainan Province reached 8.7 billion yuan, accounting for half of the total fixed assets investment. This year, Haikou's economic growth rate reached 83%, and 40% of Hainan's fiscal revenue came from the real estate industry.

Behind the soaring housing prices, the land price in Haikou has soared from several hundred thousand yuan/mu of 199 1 to more than six million yuan/mu. Numerous real estate companies began to speculate on the land and real estate on this island in the style of pass the parcel. At the peak, there were more than 20,000 real estate companies on the island, with a total population of only 6.5438+0.6 million: there was one real estate company for every 80 people on average. Developers lend a lot in banks, and even mortgage the houses on the drawings to banks at high prices, and get profits from reselling land.

On June 24th 1993, the State Council issued the Opinions on the Current Economic Situation and Strengthening Macro-control. The opinions include a series of macro-control measures, such as strictly controlling the total credit scale, raising the interest rates of deposits and loans and national debt, recovering illegal lending funds within a time limit, reducing infrastructure investment, and cleaning up all projects under construction. According to public information, 95% of the 65438+3000 real estate enterprises in the province went bankrupt, and thousands of developers fled with money.

The backlog of commercial housing left by Hainan Province, which accounts for only 0.6% of the national total population, accounts for 10% of the national total. There are more than 600 "uncompleted residential flats" in the province, covering an area of160,000 square meters, with idle land 18834 hectares and a backlog of 80 billion yuan. "Tianya, Haijiao and uncompleted residential flats" have become the three major landscapes in Hainan. It took Hainan Province seven years to basically complete the disposal of the backlog of real estate. By the end of June 38, 2006, the province had disposed of 23,353.87 hectares of idle construction land, with a backlog of 4,448,200 square meters of commercial housing.

With the prosperity of Haikou, until today, real estate accounts for a high proportion in Hainan's tax revenue and fixed investment. With the support of the real estate industry alone, Haikou may encounter the second bubble economy.

The industrial transformation and upgrading of enterprises need the help of both national policies and markets. The government constantly improves the market system, creates a fair competitive market environment, and at the same time relaxes the industry access restrictions, allowing enterprises to spontaneously pursue a higher level of industrial structure. In short, for cities supported by resource-based or single traditional industries, industrial transformation and upgrading is imminent.