Research on traditional economic development model

In the current environment, the new economic growth model should pay attention to the upgrading of industrial structure, the technical content of products, independent brands and independent innovation capabilities, as well as the improvement of product added value and profitability. /Li Yiping The financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis has a certain impact on China's economic development, which is undoubtedly related to our existing economic development model. Therefore, we should take the crisis as an opportunity to seek a new economic growth model. This new economic growth model has two remarkable characteristics: First, it pays full attention to the pulling effect of domestic demand on economic growth, and promotes China's economic development with both domestic demand and external demand. Second, it is conducive to innovation, the promotion of economic structure and the establishment of independent brands. In a sense, the US subprime mortgage crisis has an impact on China's real economy, because domestic demand is insufficient. The central government is far-sighted and has introduced a series of measures to stimulate domestic demand and ensure stable and rapid economic development, all of which are very timely and completely correct. From a long-term and strategic point of view, attaching importance to the pulling effect of domestic demand on economic development should become the normal state of China's economic development. First of all, China is a big country, and its economic development model is different from that of a small country. There is a very classic exposition in economics that the economic development model of a big country should be different from that of a small country. Hollis Chenery, a representative of contemporary development economics, compared the development models of big countries and small countries in his famous Structural Change and Development Policy. The conclusion is: "The main feature of the development pattern of a big country is the low level of international trade. The bigger a country is, the more inward-looking its policies are, and the more closed its economy is. Throughout the transition period, the export volume of a typical big country is 12% of the gross national product, and the export volume of a hypothetical semi-open country is 6%. " The economic development model of small countries is different from that of big countries. "Those factors that lead to limited trade and balanced growth in big countries have had the opposite effect in small countries. The latter's resources are less diversified and the market is smaller, which increases the income of foreign trade. For most small countries, foreign capital is easier to obtain. " These discourses provide us with the basis for understanding the economic growth model of big countries. If we say that in the early days of reform and opening up, we relied more on foreign trade because of the shortage of funds, then when there is a certain capital accumulation and the international economic situation changes, we should lose no time to change the mode of economic growth, give priority to domestic demand, and adjust it to a strategic height. Secondly, attaching importance to domestic demand to stimulate economic development, the more direct reason is the lesson brought by the American subprime mortgage crisis. China's previous economic development model once relied heavily on external demand. Once external demand becomes the main driving force of China's economic development, the following situations will occur: First, economic development is greatly affected by world economic fluctuations. For example, from 2004 to 2007, the world economy was in a relatively fast development period, and there was a great demand for China products, so China's economy would be in a relatively fast development period. However, once the world economy is depressed, especially in countries that have a large demand for our products, the economic development of our country will be quite passive. This is the present situation of our country. Second, when the economy is heavily dependent on external demand, the price of upstream products, especially raw materials, will rise, resulting in imported inflation. This is the situation of our country from the end of 2007 to the first half of 2008. Third, deficit countries in international trade will require surplus countries to appreciate their currencies to ease their economic pressure. This is almost the usual practice for the United States to face the trade deficit with Japan and China. Deficit countries demand that the currencies of surplus countries appreciate, or their own currencies depreciate, which makes the economic development of surplus countries worse. Facing the market, any market subject should protect itself. From the perspective of protection, we can't put eggs in one basket. We don't deny the positive role of foreign trade, but based on the lessons of American subprime mortgage crisis and the basic national conditions, the strategic orientation of China's economic development should be to pay full attention to domestic demand. Even in terms of improving the living standards of our people, this should be the case. Thirdly, it should be normal to emphasize that domestic demand should promote economic development, because the cost of restarting when the economy declines is greater than the operating cost under normal conditions. Once we understand the mode of promoting economic development with domestic demand from a strategic perspective, it is normal to pay attention to the role of domestic demand in economic development. As a normal state, domestic demand has been playing a steady and uninterrupted role, which includes the inertia of development and the role of economic laws. Starting domestic demand is started with the help of administrative power when economic development is declining. Policies and measures to boost domestic demand and prevent economic downturn are usually emergency. If domestic demand is divided into investment demand and consumption demand, investment is the direct force to start domestic demand, followed by investment to stimulate consumption. Under the specific administrative subordination system in China, the goals and measures expected by the central government will be amplified in the process of calling for implementation, and even evolved into bright spot projects and image projects. The problem lies not only in this, but also in the fact that once the economic downturn begins, it needs more power to start again, just like a car stopping and restarting. In this case, why not take domestic demand as a normal state to promote economic development and make China's economy develop healthily and stably? Finally, the healthy development of a country's economy is bound to pay equal attention to external demand and domestic demand. Domestic demand and external demand are two wheels of a country's economic development. If foreign trade has been the main wheel since the reform and opening up, then in the long run, China must build another wheel, that is, domestic demand, that is, build a consumer-oriented society, so that domestic demand will become the normal state to stimulate economic development. Only when both wheels are sound can our economy develop steadily. Reflecting on the crisis in the current environment, this new economic growth model should pay attention to the upgrading of industrial structure, the technical content of products, independent brands and independent innovation capabilities, as well as the improvement of product added value and profitability. The promotion of economic structure and economic development complement each other. Without the promotion of economic structure, there will be no qualitative leap in economic development. From the primary industry to the secondary industry and then to the tertiary industry, it is a typical example that the improvement of economic structure drives economic development. Imagine that if there is no breakthrough in the economic structure, there will always be an end to economic development on a constant industrial plane; A constant industrial plane cannot contain unlimited economic development. Undeniably, China has low added value of products, low industrial level and lack of competitiveness. Guangdong province was the hardest hit by the Great Depression. Wang Yang, secretary of Guangdong Provincial Party Committee, pointed out: "The financial crisis has taught Guangdong a vivid lesson. In the past, the low-end production capacity of labor-intensive industries that used cheap land and labor costs to undertake international industrial transfer was exposed under the impact of the financial crisis. " The Outline of the Reform and Development Plan of the Pearl River Delta Region (2008-2020) issued by the State Council also holds that the Pearl River Delta region has made great progress since the reform and opening up, but "the main body of the industrial level is low, the added value of products is not high, the trade structure is unreasonable, the innovation ability is insufficient, and the overall competitiveness is not strong", emphasizing that the traditional development model is unsustainable. Further development must change the mode of economic growth, vigorously promote scientific and technological progress, and enhance the ability of independent innovation. 1997 The case of how the Asian financial crisis broke out also proved the significance of upgrading core technologies, independent brands and structures. The Asian financial crisis is caused by many factors, but one of the important factors is that although Asian countries are increasing their export dependence and export technology content, there are not many things that really belong to them, which is an application of the export platform policy of developed countries. When developed countries sell intellectual property rights, they can not only make use of cheap resources and labor in developing countries, but also occupy the markets of developing countries. This is a kind of congenital deficiency, which is easily influenced by the artificially controlled economic development model. In this crisis, different enterprises have different performances. EVOC Intelligent Group in Shenzhen produces all kinds of special computers. They used to be agents of Taiwanese businessmen, but their forward-looking thinking made them plan ahead and eventually became enterprises with independent brands and core technologies. It only took 10 years to become the first in China and the third in the world. Shishi city City, Fujian Province, China has made great efforts to build its own brand and upgrade its technical content. The domestic market is vast and the market structure is reasonable. Its own brand and wide market recognition make it equivalent to the seller's market in the structure of supply and demand sides, and the capital returns smoothly, which is not affected by the economic depression. With a brand, it can't be done once and for all. In order to keep the content of the brand at the forefront forever, we must constantly improve the technical content of the brand. Take toys for example. Although some traditional toy manufacturers also have brands, because of backward technology and difficult operation, enterprises that combine toys with animation technology and robot technology sell well. The above analysis shows that we must seize the opportunity to improve the scientific and technological content of economic growth. The "brand-new" growth model The current crisis is an organic matter at stake and an opportunity to upgrade the economic growth model. The essence of transforming the economic growth model is the gathering and upgrading of human capital and the institutional arrangements conducive to innovation. As early as 1960s, Schultz thought that there should be an all-encompassing concept of capital, not only the traditional concept of material capital, but also the importance and full understanding of human capital. Marshall also profoundly pointed out that the role of "nature" in production can be attributed to diminishing returns, but the role of "man" is increasing returns. According to modern economic growth theory, the contribution of human capital to economic development in developed countries is greater than that of material capital through the actual investigation of the growth process. Then, is there a contradiction between improving the scientific and technological content of economic growth and labor-intensive industries? Contradictions obviously exist. Labor-intensive industries are usually based on a large number of people, rather than the improvement of people's quality. It is an economic growth model that pays attention to the total economic growth rather than improving the technical content of economic growth, and its total increase depends on more labor input rather than innovation. Of course, due to the large population in China, the labor-intensive economic growth model cannot be eliminated at once. We can carry out gradient transfer in vast areas and take the lead in changing the economic growth model in developed areas. Our economic growth model should also be dual, one is the promoting economic growth model in economically developed areas, and the other is the labor-intensive economic growth model in underdeveloped areas. It should also be pointed out that there is no contradiction between attaching importance to the technology-intensive and human capital-intensive economic growth model and ensuring employment. The economic structure upgrading will provide new jobs at a higher level, and the same capital will create more jobs after the economic structure upgrading. The upgrading of industrial structure will lead to certain structural unemployment in a short time. However, as long as we strengthen our study, it is not difficult to solve the problem of reemployment, and the quality of the whole society will be improved. We should also establish institutional arrangements that are conducive to changing the economic growth model. This institutional arrangement is firstly a market competition mechanism, and the market itself is selective. In an open market, the market mechanism will forcibly eliminate backwardness. Fierce competition is the lever to upgrade the industrial structure. Secondly, the incentive and inclusiveness of a society. We should encourage innovation and tolerate the initial heresy and failure in the process of innovation. Finally, under the specific institutional background of our country, studying the assessment criteria and selection mechanism of cadres will make the behavior of cadres conducive to innovation, economic structure upgrading, long-term behavior and scientific development, rather than one-sided pursuit of GDP. (The writer is an economics professor and doctoral supervisor at Renmin University of China. )