Take the iron ore funeral case as an example to analyze the environment of business negotiation?

All the unpleasant memories in the brief history of iron ore negotiations began in 2005. BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale, the three major international iron ore giants that have always maintained good relations with China buyers, suddenly became very difficult to deal with. Since that year, they have always raised the asking price in disguise. 2005: Wake up the dreamer According to the established rules, Vale, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are the three major sellers currently participating in iron ore negotiations, and they start negotiations with buyers from China, Japan, South Korea and Europe respectively. Once the first buyer and seller reach an agreement, other negotiations will stop immediately and accept the price reached. Previously, the three iron ore giants had never been so rebellious. After CVRD of Brazil took the lead in raising the price by 7 1.5%, BHP Billiton requested to conclude a CIF transaction in order to increase the price of Australian iron ore arriving at China port. BHP Billiton's proposal met with resistance from China buyers headed by Baosteel. China Iron and Steel Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as Steel Association) has repeatedly said that it will not accept BHP Billiton's asking price, and said that BHP Billiton needs to look at the cooperation between the two parties from a long-term perspective, not just for a moment. "Don't forget, iron ore is hard to sell. If you want us to buy your ore, you must give us a rebate. " Wu Xichun, consultant of Steel Association, once "reminded" BHP Billiton. While the three international iron ore giants are robbing China iron and steel enterprises at the negotiating table, FMG FORTESCU Group, which aims to become the fourth giant, is attracting China enterprises to invest and build with attractive mine development projects. The final result is that China enterprises have to accept the fact that the import price of iron ore has increased by 7 1.5%. The outside world has begun to pay attention to iron ore negotiations. 2006: China fought a protracted war in June, 5438 +2005 10. In fiscal year 2006, iron ore negotiations began, and the China buyers who were robbed the year before were wiser. During the "Eleventh" holiday in 2005, China buyers, including senior executives of several famous steel enterprises, went to India to buy mines and iron ore to break the monopoly of the three major iron ore suppliers. However, this trip ended in vain, because Indian sellers are extremely scattered and the transportation infrastructure is not perfect, so it is difficult for China buyers to purchase iron ore locally on a large scale. At the same time, in Rizhao, Shandong and other important iron ore import ports, there has been a phenomenon of hoarding, and some people have bid up the price of iron ore, which has led to an extremely unfavorable situation in foreign negotiations. Until March 2006, this round of iron ore negotiations was still inconclusive. The outside world is worried about this, but Qi Xiangdong, deputy secretary-general of the Steel Association, told the reporter of China Business News that "iron ore negotiations will not be in a hurry". This means that China will adopt protracted war tactics to deal with the negotiations. In June 2006, the eight-month negotiation finally ended. As a result of negotiation, the price rose 19%. Domestic public opinion is not satisfied with this and thinks that the Chinese negotiators "delayed the fighter plane." 2007: Make a Quick Decision On February 22, 2006, a new round of iron ore negotiations went smoothly unexpectedly: Baosteel and Vale reached an agreement on the international benchmark price of iron ore in 2007, which increased by 9.5% on the basis of 2006. In the iron ore negotiations in 2006, due to China's insistence on price reduction and delaying tactics, the "fighter plane" was finally delayed and had no choice but to accept the price increase. The steel association decided not to adopt delaying tactics in this negotiation, but it would not disclose its bottom line in advance. In order to keep secret, the Steel Association held several important meetings in cities such as Shanghai or Wuhan, trying to keep a low profile. Although the iron ore sellers composed of BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale announced the expected price increase range of 5% to 10% at the beginning of this negotiation, no one from China came forward to resist the price increase this time. The negotiations only lasted for more than a month and the dust settled. "9.5% is good news for China, because it is the smallest increase in foreign bids in four years." After the results of the negotiations were announced, Qi Xiangdong was pleased to tell this reporter. This is also widely regarded as the most successful iron ore negotiation in history. 2008: After a brief reconciliation on the verge of collapse, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton put forward more stringent requirements to Baosteel: iron ore negotiations in 2008 need to change the rules and trade on the basis of CIF. This proposal is undoubtedly the hope that iron ore prices will rise again. The turning point appeared in February 2008, when Vale of Brazil reached an agreement with ThyssenKrupp, and the price of fine ore in the south of Vale rose by 65% and Caracas by 66%. This is also the first time in the iron ore price negotiations over the years that different grades of ore have raised prices in different degrees. After Vale took the lead in breaking the rules, Rio Tinto naturally had more reason to insist on changing the rules. At the end of March, 2008, due to the firm refusal of China steel enterprises, Rio Tinto changed its way to implement the "forced palace". According to people close to the iron ore negotiations, the three major sellers threatened to reduce the supply of iron ore to long-term buyers in China on the grounds of force majeure, and concentrated iron ore on the spot market for high price, which almost led to the breakdown of the negotiations. In the end, the two sides reluctantly accepted that the prices of lead fine ore, Yang Di fine ore and lead lump ore increased by 79.88%, 79.88% and 96.5% respectively on the basis of 2007 prices. Iron ore sellers once again took the initiative to break the traditional negotiation rules. The price of "Xie Chang Mine" is expected to drop sharply. "China Business News" interviewed Ma Zhongpu, a senior analyst of China Commercial Network: A new round of iron ore negotiations is under way in 2009. What do you think is the focus of the debate between the two sides? Ma Zhongpu: In this world economic recession, almost all commodity prices have shown a sharp decline trend, but the long-term agreement price of iron ore has not decreased accordingly. Now the global steel market, including China's steel industry, is facing a low tide in 2009, so it is more likely that the agreed price of iron ore will fall in 2009. However, there are many factors that affect the outcome of iron ore negotiations, such as the cyclical recession of the international economy, the oversupply of iron ore and other fundamental factors, the impact of changes in steel market prices on the expectations of iron ore price negotiations, and the reform of the international iron ore supply and demand layout structure and the formation mechanism of agreed iron ore prices. It is these complicated and changeable factors that make the contact and negotiation between the two sides start from June 5438+October 2008 10, and no final result has been reached so far. The three major iron ore suppliers all agreed to lower the agreed iron ore price from June 5438+1 October 1 to April1in 2009, but at the same time put forward the iron ore import and export market price index, requesting to determine the agreed iron ore import CIF price according to the change of the iron ore market CIF index. As a result, China iron and steel enterprises will face the ever-changing negotiation of iron ore prices, which is very unfavorable for iron and steel enterprises to control the purchase volume and cost of iron ore, and does not conform to the practice of long-term international trade in bulk commodities, so it has been rejected by domestic iron and steel associations and iron and steel enterprises. China Business News: How do you view the negative impact of the recent price increase in China steel market on iron ore price negotiations? Ma Zhongpu: Recently, international steel prices have fallen sharply, while domestic steel prices have very limited room to fall, and demand has increased slightly. The performance of the steel market has added uncertainty to the whole iron ore negotiation. Judging from the results of previous iron ore negotiations, in addition to the monopoly position of the three major iron ore suppliers and the excessive growth of iron ore demand, the upward trend of steel market prices is also an important factor for the sharp increase in iron ore prices under the stimulus agreement. In the past two months, the steel market price in China rose by several hundred yuan, which led to the rebound of domestic iron ore, ferroalloy and coke prices. This changing trend is really not conducive to the negotiation of the price decline rate of iron ore agreement. When the domestic and foreign steel industry and the three major iron ore suppliers have seen the price changes in the steel market in China, it is unrealistic to expect the iron ore price negotiations to come to a conclusion as soon as possible. In fact, after the recent price rebound in China steel market, the loss pressure of steel enterprises has eased, but they have not got rid of the losses. In particular, the pressure of international steel imports has increased significantly recently, which will restrict the price trend in the domestic market. However, the domestic production capacity of nearly 654.38 billion tons has not recovered. These dynamic trends show that the price trend of international and domestic steel markets in 2009 can only be consolidated in a relatively low trough. In the world economic downturn, it will be very good for China iron and steel enterprises to get rid of losses and meager profits in 2009. This general trend of steel market evolution is the basic basis for iron ore price decline negotiations. What ultimately affects the price of international iron ore market and the outcome of iron ore negotiations in 2009 is the general trend of price changes in the international steel market and the situation that iron ore demand is decreasing and it is difficult to turn into oversupply. China Business News: How can China iron and steel enterprises get rid of the unfavorable situation of going it alone in iron ore price negotiations? Ma Zhongpu: Some large Japanese and international steel enterprises occupy a considerable share among the three major iron ore suppliers. The fluctuation of iron ore price has little influence on these enterprises, which makes it difficult for China iron and steel enterprises to go it alone in the iron ore price negotiation in 2009. However, the situation of economy and steel market changed in 2009. For example, Toyota Motor Corporation of Japan, a big steel demand country, is facing serious losses. Although the rise and fall of iron ore prices have little impact on the profits of some Japanese steel enterprises, in 2009, they faced the downward adjustment of steel price demand to ease the cost tolerance of downstream large-user enterprises. Therefore, when the global steel market price almost fell to a low point, many major international steel enterprises, including Nippon Steel, demanded a substantial reduction in the agreed price of iron ore. China iron and steel enterprises need to strengthen coordination with international iron and steel enterprises and iron ore suppliers, so that iron ore price negotiations can achieve early results.