65438+February brokerage gold shares released! Real estate stocks become a new hot spot "new year market" or will it open?

Looking back on the past 1 1 month, in terms of index, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 8.9 1%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 6.84%, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index rose by 3.54%. In terms of industries, 30 of Shenwan 3 1 first-class industries have achieved an increase, and the top three industries are: real estate (27.80%), building materials (20.55438+0%) and food and beverage (16.438+0%); The only industry that fell was defense and military industry (-5.28%).

So, what kind of market will be ushered in in 65438+February? What are the "gold stocks" in June 5438+February? What configuration suggestions did the organization give? Let's take a look.

First, institutions are optimistic about the "New Year's Market"

According to incomplete statistics, at present (as of 12, 1), more than 20 securities firms have released their investment portfolios in 2022 and the latest market views.

Many of them mentioned the "new year market".

The so-called "new year's market" means that at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the market often welcomes a wave of rising prices.

Yuekai Securities: 65438+February, from the perspective of the capital market, the traditional "spring agitation" and "New Year's market" are expected to gradually heat up.

According to the historical statistics, the probability of New Year's market is high, with the probability of 100%, 60% and 60% in the last three years, five years and10 years respectively, and the average ups and downs are +3.58%,+1.36% and +3.55% respectively.

This year can be compared with the steady growth year of 20 12. Taking history as a mirror, the New Year market is worth looking forward to, and steady growth will be interpreted in turn.

China galaxy Securities: 65438+February "New Year Quotes" were laid out at the bottom of the mill.

Since the beginning of this year, the A-share market has fallen, and the valuation of A-shares is still in the low range of nearly 10. Judging from the valuation, the market has one of the basic conditions to start the "New Year's Market".

Near the end of the year, from the historical data, in recent years, the "new year's goods market" is quite different, and the start time is also different, which is mainly due to the different gathering time of the basic conditions for market start.

Western Securities: The window of "New Year Quotes" is gradually opening. Considering the strong reversal effect of the A-share market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, this year's "New Year's Market" deserves investors' attention.

However, some brokers are worried about the lack of sustained upward momentum in the market.

Guoyuan Securities: The overall market environment and expected trend have improved, and the subsequent epidemic development may be one of the greater uncertainties. Supported by the liquidity environment and fundamentals, the market has little downside, but it also lacks the motivation to continue to rise, and the probability of maintaining shocks is high.

It is worth mentioning that in terms of investment strategy, many brokers said that the main line of the market is unknown.

China galaxy Securities: At present, there is no main line in the market, and investors need time to re-examine the development prospects of the industry. Whether it is a value stock or a tracking stock, the style conversion may deepen.

Shanxi Securities: The overall market sentiment has slightly improved, and the willingness to allocate foreign capital has rebounded, but it is obviously unstable and repeated, and the overlapping incremental funds are limited, which leads to the acceleration of the plate rotation and the unclear main line.

Shen Wan Hongyuan: At present, there is no shortage of long-term upward trend, but there is no shortage of short-term prosperity and long-term direction. In this context, the short-term market is rapidly rotating and event-based transactions.

The views of some institutions are as follows:

Second, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD shares were favored by six institutions, and real estate shares became a new hot spot.

According to the statistics of 2 1 investment link, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD shares are recommended by institutions the most, and * * * is recommended by six brokers. Gemdale and Bank of Ningbo were recommended by four brokers respectively. At the same time, Poly Development, China Mobile, Oriental Yuhong and other stocks were recommended by three brokers respectively.

In terms of industry, food and beverage, real estate and building materials have become the industries recommended by brokers.

It is worth mentioning that Gemdale and Poly are among the 9 stocks that have been recommended more than 3 times. 165438+1October1real estate documents were published one after another, which undoubtedly boosted the market's confidence in the real estate sector.

Some suggestions are as follows:

1, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. (000568. SZ)

Debon Securities:

The advance payment has performed well and is expected to be settled smoothly throughout the year.

1)2022 Q3 contractual liabilities1.90 billion yuan, basically the same as the same period of last year;

2) In the fourth quarter, the company will continue to help the channel digest its inventory and prepare for a good start next year.

Ping An Securities:

1) At the product end, the company's core products are synchronized, and the national pits are specially driven by two wheels, and the low-grade national pits are on the rise. The black cover will be released soon or next year, which has strong advantages in brand and market reputation, or will become a new boost to the company's performance;

2) In terms of channels, the company actively explored the layout of new retail tracks and continued to promote the "100-city integration plan", which laid a good channel foundation for the annual growth and effectively resolved the impact of the epidemic on marketing;

3) In the first three quarters of 2022, the company achieved high growth, with revenue of 65.438+07.525 billion yuan, up 30.9% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the mother of 826.5438+07 billion yuan, up 30.94% year-on-year, showing a steady growth trend.

2. Jindi (600383. SH)

Zheshang Securities:

1) The company is rich in land reserves, focusing on core first-and second-tier cities. The company's investment strategy is in line with market changes, which is conducive to the company to seize the opportunity of market repair;

2) According to Kerry's sales list, the company ranked eighth in June 5438+0-September, and the cumulative sales of housing enterprises 100 enterprises in June 5438+0-September remained at a relatively high level of -45.4% year-on-year. The sales performance of the company is obviously higher than the average level of the top 100 real estate enterprises, and the sales have strong resilience;

3) The company has stable operation and financial security. After the introduction of the support policy, it became a group of housing enterprises supported by the policy, which reflected the company's strong operational strength. At the same time, the large credit line has added protection for the company's steady operation.

Bank of China Securities:

1) Leading the sales growth rate, adhering to the deep cultivation strategy of high-energy cities and stabilizing the basic disk safety mat;

2) The diversified business has achieved remarkable results and entered the first echelon in all fields;

3) In terms of financial indicators, income grew steadily, financing costs continued to decline, and cash on hand was abundant.

3. Bank of Ningbo (002 142. SZ)

Shen Wan Hongyuan:

1) The intention to stabilize real estate has shifted from macro to micro, and the "first-phase rise" driven by the bank's expected repair has begun, and the benchmark banks with more callbacks in the previous period have greater upward flexibility;

2) Thanks to the advanced industrial clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the flexible institutional advantages give the company high growth and high premium.

China galaxy Securities:

1) The profit performance was better than that in the first half of the year, and the pressure on impairment reserve was further released;

2) It is expected that the follow-up will continue to benefit from structural monetary policy and demand repair, and promote the valuation to stabilize and rebound.

4. Poly Development (600048. SH)

Chuancai Securities:

1) Recently, the real estate industry has ushered in a number of benefits, and the financing environment has been improved;

2) After this round of industry reshuffle, it is expected that the industry will pick up in the second half of next year and the industry competition pattern will improve. At present, it is an opportunity for the layout of high-quality real estate stocks.

5. China Mobile (60094 1. SH)

Guo Jin Securities:

1) The core business indicators show that the company's fundamental trends are improving;

2) Optimize the management structure and speed up the transformation of the second curve;

3) The dividend rate will increase, and growth and transformation are expected to open up future market value space.

6. Oriental Yuhong (00227 1. SZ)

Huaxin Securities:

1) The performance in the third quarter declined year-on-year, narrowing and improving month-on-month, indicating that it will stabilize and rebound in the fourth quarter;

2) Vigorously expand production, seize the development opportunity of green building materials, and the incremental demand of government procurement ensures the digestion of production capacity;

3) Industry benefits are frequent, and infrastructure recovery+new regulations expansion+building energy efficiency are the first to benefit the head enterprises.

7. Jingao Technology (002459. SZ)

CITIC Jiantou:

1) The valuation has been at a historical low, and the pessimistic expectations of the market have been completely digested;

2) Brand and channel advantages are obvious, and the market share of component shipments is increasing;

3) Topcon will accelerate production next year, and the proportion of shipments is expected to reach 30%;

4) After the price reduction of silicon materials, the profitability of integrated components is expected to improve.

8. China Stonehenge (600 176. SH)

Yuekai Securities:

In the medium and long term, the glass fiber industry is expected to enter a new stage of high-quality and orderly expansion of production capacity, the demand side will drive growth, the supply and demand pattern is expected to be continuously optimized, and the future competitive advantage of leading enterprises is expected to be further consolidated.

9. Core _ Micro-package (688630. SH)

Shanxi Securities:

1)LDI equipment benefits from the stock upgrade, and new application scenarios are expected to open up new space;

2) Improve the company's long-term incentive mechanism, and the performance target of the stock incentive plan is above 30%.