Summer is the traditional off-season of pork consumption.

With the coming of summer, the off-season of pork consumption in the market "comes as scheduled", and the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is basically maintained at around 30%; However, the average weight of slaughter has been low after the year, which has led to a decline in the overall meat output of slaughter enterprises and also supported the increase in pig prices to some extent!

According to the monitoring of many data of live pigs, the average price of ternary live pigs at home and abroad was 15.56 yuan/kg on May 8, up 0. 15 yuan/kg compared with yesterday.

The national price of live pigs in 3 1 provinces and cities once again ushered in a comprehensive rebound. Although the increase was not as high as at the beginning of the month, the price of live pigs has stabilized in recent days.

2 big changes! The production capacity and slaughter of live pigs have dropped!

Throughout the national pig price market, pig prices in most parts of the country have returned to the "7 prefix" position, all of which are "breaking 7 and rushing 8".

Among them, the most violent increase is in Guangdong Province. At present, under the influence of pig transportation policy, Guangdong Province has launched an impact on the pig price of "10 yuan".

Behind the rise in pig prices are two major changes in the pig industry:

1, the pig production decreased.

According to the latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of live pigs and fertile sows decreased year-on-year in April. At present, the number of live pigs in China is 424 million, which is the first year-on-year decline since June 2020.

At the end of April, the latest number of fertile sows was 4 1.773 million, down 4.3% year-on-year, which was 4 1.9% of the normal number, and it was in a green and reasonable area for productivity control.

2. The weight of live pigs has decreased.

The reduction of the average weight of slaughter pigs means the shortening of fattening cycle, especially the soaring feed price after the year. In order to reduce losses, farmers have to slaughter small-weight pigs in advance, and even some fattening pigs on the market are less than 100 kg.

This virtually reduced the pressure on the pork market. Although the market consumption has not improved significantly, the total supply has decreased.

2 big vigilance! Don't "chase up and kill down" when raising pigs.

The direct impact of the decline in pig productivity and slaughter weight is the rebound in pig prices. In particular, some farmers "chase up and kill down", and the higher they are, the more property hoarding they are.

Warning 1: Farmers should not use excessive force.

As we all know, the upward height of pig price in market economy depends not only on the supply side, but also on the consumption side.

Seeing that summer is coming, pork consumption in the market is in the off-season, and the big fat meat raised under pressure is even less popular. It is better to go out early and lose less money.

Vigilance 2. Farmers should not follow the trend.

At present, farmers are highly motivated to supplement piglets, and there is a phenomenon of "grabbing" piglets locally.

The upward trend of piglet market can be expected. On the one hand, the total supply decreases due to the decrease of fertile sows, and on the other hand, due to the rapid growth of short-term demand, the price of piglets is actually slightly "inflated" compared with the actual situation, so farmers should try not to follow the trend to buy "high-priced" piglets.

All in all, from the overall situation of the pig industry, the year-on-year decline in the number of live pigs means that the production capacity of live pigs is coming to an end, and the number of fertile sows is in the normal fluctuation range, which also lays a good foundation for the stable development of the pig industry in the future. However, at present, the production capacity of the live pig market is not sufficient, and the consumption end has not reached the normal level in previous years. Although the center of gravity of pig price has moved up, farmers should not be too optimistic about the pig price in the second half of the year.