Ma Guangyuan talks about the historic change of house price.

Many people are paying attention to the trend of the property market, and many professionals have expressed their views on the trend of the property market. Ma Guangyuan, a famous economist, devoted himself to the research in the fields of macro-economy, real estate, private investment and industrial safety, and often had his own unique views on the analysis of the real estate market. Let's take a look at Ma Guangyuan's analysis and forecast of the real estate market.

Ma Guangyuan thinks this will be the most difficult year for the real estate industry. There are two main reasons for this: first, the effect of government regulation will be fully manifested, and once the destocking cycle of the fourth and fifth lines ends, the real estate market will fall into a very difficult situation; In addition, real estate enterprises and property buyers still stay in the past thinking about real estate. They don't realize that with the changes of policy logic, market logic, economic cycle and real estate cycle, the real estate industry in China is undergoing a real historic change.

The coming 20 18 will be a new year for the development of China's real estate industry, which will be the swan song of the real estate market in the first half of the year. Great changes in the real estate industry can be observed from the following three aspects:

First of all, "housing without speculation" will become the main theme of the future real estate market, and the real estate policy will change from the past economic policy to the people's livelihood and social policy, which will inevitably lead to great changes in the real estate market. The future real estate policy will bid farewell to the regulation cycle, but enter the construction cycle. After that, we will reshuffle and adjust the structure of the real estate market, and gradually build a housing system that conforms to China's development stage and the specific economic conditions of all walks of life, including the reconstruction of a series of systems such as land system, tax system, housing finance system, housing security system, information system and transaction supervision.

Secondly, the basic contradiction of real estate has changed. At present, the main contradiction in the real estate market has changed from insufficient quantity in the past to unbalanced and insufficient resources. High-quality real estate in high-quality cities is increasingly scarce. With the continuous improvement of people's functional orientation of housing, housing has been given more added value, which will inevitably lead to the fission of real estate value chain and industrial chain.

Third, the stage of scale competition in the real estate industry has become a thing of the past. It is not only the scale that determines the future of an enterprise, but also excellent ideas and future-oriented competition models.

This will be a year in which risks and opportunities coexist. The state will intensify efforts to establish a long-term housing control system. The first half of China real estate market has ended, while the second half of the new 20 18 real estate market has just begun.