What is the prospect of 20 16 entering the floor tile industry?

From high-speed development to gentle development

According to the statistical data of China Ceramic Tile Adhesive Industry Market Prospect and Investment Planning Analysis Report by Prospective Industry Research Institute, the output of ceramic tiles in China in the first half of 20 13 was 45170,000 square meters, up by 5.8% year-on-year; In the first three quarters of 20 13, the output of ceramic tiles in China reached 7 1. 1 100 million square meters, a year-on-year increase.

4.6%。 This is basically consistent with the forecast that the output of ceramic tiles will increase below 5% in 20 12 and about 5% in 20 13. These data fully show that the ceramic tile industry in China has entered a gentle development period from a high-speed development period. This gentle development period may not be a year or two, and it may be difficult for China ceramic tile industry to see an era of double-digit growth in the future.

2. Talk about ceramic tile overproduction and its performance.

Many people in the industry believe that it is a key data to consume 6 square meters of tiles per capita every year. At present, the annual per capita consumption of ceramic tiles in China is about 6 square meters [(annual output-export)/population], in other words, the output of ceramic tiles in China is on the verge of excess.

Nevertheless, the overproduction of ceramic tiles is not terrible. Surplus is the necessity of the development of market economy. China's ceramic tile production has developed for more than ten years under the encirclement of "overproduction", and it seems that it will never be overproduced, but it is impossible. The ceramic tile industry in China is almost 100% private enterprise, which is fully competitive and profit-seeking leads to surplus, and the market is regulated and promoted. What's more, ceramic tile products are personalized products, and it is almost impossible for the whole industry to have a surplus of products, let alone a loss of the whole industry. The output of 20 13 only increased by 5.8% in the first half of the year, but the growth of inkjet printers exceeded 50%, which means that the growth of inkjet printing products will exceed 50%.

How to understand the overproduction of ceramic tiles that is or will soon appear? May have their own opinions. In my opinion, the overproduction of ceramic tiles in China at this stage is more manifested as: policy surplus; Staged surplus; Escape sequence; Dynamic surplus; Relative surplus and so on.

Excessive policies are mainly due to the introduction of policies that affect the macro-economy or real estate development, resulting in a significant decline in real estate transactions, such as: the collection of property tax in the whole region, large-scale real estate purchase restrictions, "National Article 20", etc., which led to a decline in the sales of ceramic tile products, but after the policy was cancelled, there was a blowout. Recently, the state restricted the construction of building management office, which directly led to the sales pressure of many new ceramic plate and sheet production lines.

Staged surplus, the whole industry itself is relatively saturated. Due to extraordinary seasonal changes, such as floods, freezing disasters, or busy farming seasons, ceramic tile products have a large area, a large number of unsalable products and a backlog of products.

In the process of escape, a large number of certain products were surplus, such as: all-glazed products and microcrystalline stone products became popular, which largely replaced the traditional polished brick products, resulting in the surplus of polished brick products and the closure of a large number of private polishing factories; Underground wall climbing is popular, but there is a surplus of traditional tiles.

Dynamic surplus has become the norm. Due to the huge production base of ceramic tiles in China, among many varieties such as polished tiles, ceramic tiles, antique tiles, marble tiles and ink-jet printed tiles, there are several types of products that are in surplus this year, and others will be in surplus next year.

Relative surplus, because ceramic tile products are highly personalized products, the whole industry is almost composed of private enterprises and private enterprises. Market economy is dominant and industries are fully competitive. The industry itself has a strong ability to cope and adjust. Most of the earnings in each period are relative and easy to adjust.

Historically, in 2005, the per capita annual consumption of ceramic tiles in Spain reached 6.7 square meters. From the overall upward trend of China's economic development, it shows that China's ceramic tile production still has some room for growth, but the development trend of the whole industry has already appeared: the growth rate of output has gradually slowed down, and the surplus trend has gradually become clear.

3. The export volume, price and average unit price of ceramic tiles have all increased.

In 20 12, the global trade volume of ceramic tile products was about 2.2 billion square meters, and China's ceramic tile exports accounted for about half of the international trade volume. In 20 12, the average export price of ceramic tile products continued to rise, reaching 5.85 USD/m2 (up 1.65438 USD/m2), and the average price increased by 24.73% year-on-year. Among them, floor tiles (including porcelain bricks, fine stoneware bricks, stoneware bricks and stoneware bricks) rose by 86 cents on average.

15.25%; Glazed tiles (tiles) increased by $65,438 +0.37, an increase of 33.74%. In the first half of 20 13, the average unit price of ceramic tile export continued to increase substantially, reaching USD 6.93/m2, up USD 65,438+USD 0.08/m2 year-on-year. The data in Table 2 also shows that the growth rate of China's ceramic tile export in the first half of 20 12 and 20 13 obviously slowed down compared with previous years, with an increase of single digits.

The sharp increase in export volume and average unit price may be the result expected by the government and people in the industry for many years, especially in the first half of 20 12 and 20 13, with the increase exceeding per square meter 1 USD. However, this does not mean that this is the total contribution of China ceramic tile product quality and brand promotion, and it is more likely due to the change of RMB exchange rate and value in recent years. In other words, in the past two years, the RMB has appreciated externally and depreciated internally. In the last two years, the RMB exchange rate has greatly appreciated. Since this year alone, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar has appreciated by nearly 2%. Domestic RMB depreciation is reflected in the following aspects: the cost of production factors such as raw materials and labor has risen; At the same time, the government has also raised the domestic requirements for energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental protection of manufacturing enterprises, and increased the production and manufacturing costs of ceramic enterprises.

4. China ceramic tile exports are constantly being dumped.

200 1, India launched an anti-dumping investigation against China ceramic enterprises, which started the anti-dumping of ceramic tiles in China. On February 4th, 2003, India imposed an anti-dumping duty of US$ 8.28/m2 on China enterprises, which set an example for other countries to anti-dumping ceramic tiles in China.

In 2005, South Korea launched an investigation on China ceramics. In April, 2006, China ceramic tile products were imposed anti-dumping duties by arbitration for five years, with the lowest tax rate of 2.76% and the highest of.

7.49%, while other non-sampling enterprises enjoy the weighted average tax rate of 13.3%. 20 1 1 In May, South Korea announced that it would postpone the anti-dumping duties on China ceramic tiles for three years, and the anti-dumping duties levied ranged from 9. 14 to 29.4 1%.

In June, 2006, Pakistan initiated an anti-dumping investigation on our tiles, and imposed anti-dumping duties ranging from 14.85% to 23.65% for a period of five years.

From June, 5438 to February, 2009, Thailand officially filed an anti-dumping case against China ceramics, and conducted an anti-dumping investigation on all glazed and unglazed tiles exported from China to Thailand. 20 1 1 May, the tax rate of Thailand's anti-dumping case against China was determined: among them, 48 non-sampling exporters obtained the anti-dumping tax rate of 4.58%.

201June 16 EU-27 initiated an anti-dumping investigation on China ceramic tiles, and EU-27 made a final ruling on September 17: some ceramic enterprises in China were subject to import tariffs ranging from 26.3% to 36.5%, and some were subject to punitive tariffs at the general rate of 69.7%.

2011On July 25th, the Argentine Ministry of Industry informed China that it had received a written application from the domestic industry to initiate an anti-dumping investigation on unglazed floor tiles and decorative tiles originating in China, 20 12 8.

On August 28th, it was decided to impose a temporary anti-dumping duty on our ceramic tiles, with the tax rate of USD 4.62/m2 and the validity period of 6 months. On 2011August 16, another south American country, Peru, also requested to initiate an anti-dumping investigation on tiles originating in China, but finally decided to stop the anti-dumping investigation on China tiles (small tiles).

20 1 1 On September 6th, 2008, the Brazilian Foreign Trade Commission announced that the tariff on ceramic tiles in China would be increased from 15% to 35%. On July 8, 20 13, Brazil launched a 40-day anti-dumping investigation on China tiles.

5. Reflections on China's ceramic tile export and anti-dumping.

China's tiles are the most competitive and cost-effective. China's tiles are widely needed in the world. For more than ten years, the export of ceramic tiles in China has been: the quantity has increased, the price has increased, and the average unit price has increased, but the export growth rate has also declined in recent two years. At present, the ceramic tile industry in China is still a non-export-dependent industry. Up to now, the export proportion of products is only 12%, and there is still a lot of room for development. When the per capita consumption of ceramic tiles in China approaches or exceeds 6 square meters, with the increase of output, expanding exports or setting up factories abroad may be the direction for China ceramic tile industry to continue to expand and develop. The biggest obstacle to China's ceramic tile export is the vicious competition of domestic ceramic enterprises and the anti-dumping of foreign ceramic industries. Anti-dumping will be normalized, and various response plans should be made.

There is almost no polished tile industry in Korea. In 2006, anti-dumping investigation was launched on all tiles in China. Why not investigate the inaccuracy of the litigant and reverse the case? 20 1 1 sunset review, postponed for three years, why is the anti-dumping duty further aggravated? Just suspect that China's tiles were shipped by the exporter with the lowest tax rate during the five years of anti-dumping? But have we strictly controlled ourselves?

In 20 10, 27 EU countries started anti-dumping. In fact, there is almost no ceramic tile industry in more than 20 countries in the European Union. Why not lobby the governments, importers and chambers of commerce of these countries to oppose the EU anti-dumping case? Because they are also victims. However, the ongoing anti-dumping of daily-use porcelain by the European Union, the chamber of commerce organizations in some EU countries such as Sweden openly raised objections.

20 1 1, Brazil raised the tariff on ceramic tiles from 15% to 35%. Did China Customs supervise the changes in the unit price of ceramic tiles exported to Brazil, and did ceramic enterprises conduct underground transactions with exporters to lower the unit price to avoid high tariffs?

In 20 12, Thailand suddenly became the third largest ceramic tile exporter in China, reaching 43 1 1 10,000 square meters, while in 2009, China's export to Thailand was only19.42 million square meters. Are there any ceramic enterprises exporting to the EU through Thailand? How to treat sunset comments in a few years?

What do we know about anti-dumping? Why can't you fight back every time? What should we do ourselves? What should the government, associations and other relevant departments monitor? Is it possible to formulate a specific response plan? What about sunset reviews? Sunset reviews have an accurate date. Is there a contingency plan?

Faced with the international competitiveness of China's ceramic tile products and the rise of international trade protectionism, it will be normal to conduct anti-dumping investigation and litigation on ceramic tiles exported from China, and we should find systematic countermeasures.

6. New marketing trends

Sinking of channels: all-round development of the third-and fourth-tier markets, flat expansion of dealers, and independent flattening of county-level and town-level dealers. The construction of new countryside and the process of urbanization have further prospered the sales of ceramic tile products in the third-and fourth-tier markets.

The proportion of projects is rising: the proportion of hardcover houses is increasing. For example, Vanke Real Estate is now 100% renovated houses; At present, more than 50% of newly built houses in Guangzhou and Shenzhen are renovated houses; Shenyang issued a policy that blank houses are not allowed in the Second Ring Road. The number of affordable housing has greatly increased, and the grade is also constantly improving.

Increased brand concentration: Although the ceramic tile industry has many varieties and colors, the consumption level varies greatly from high to low, and it is unlikely to form an oligarchy like the cement and glass industries. However, with the development in recent years, brand concentration is getting higher and higher. Encourage brand enterprises to become bigger and stronger.

Multi-product, multi-brand and multi-store operation: In order to better occupy the market, dealers gradually expand their own brands, from single product to multiple products, from single brand to multiple brands, from single store to multiple points. For example, Hangzhou Dong Jian Building Materials has represented brands such as TOTO, Wrigley, Dong Peng, Jin Yitao, Faenza, Anhua, Meijiahua, Gaobao and Wansidun, and has more than 60 franchisees with a business area of 50,000 square meters and more than 50 dealers/kloc-0. Far East Shenhua, headquartered in Beijing, currently operates brands such as Faenza, Amon, Oushennuo, L & ampd and Guanzhi.

Cross-regional chain operation mode: Huanai Group is the earliest enterprise in China to realize chain operation of ceramic building materials. Huanai Lijia Building Materials Chain, the largest system under Huanai Group, has become the largest ceramic tile retail enterprise in China and one of the most successful building materials circulation enterprises in China. 20 10-20 1 1, Huanai Lijia building materials chain has developed rapidly, with 246 self-operated stores and 0/03 franchised stores in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Sichuan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanxi, Hebei, Anhui and Anhui. In 20 12 years, the sales of Huanai Lijia Ceramics exceeded 2 billion yuan. If it is a single ceramic enterprise, it can enter the top ten level. Similarly, Guangdong Huiquan and Beijing Far East Shenhua Mercure.

Mixed marketing system combination: Mixed marketing system combination mainly means that some ceramic enterprises adjust their consistent regional agency system and integrate into the branch system in some areas. With the increasing proportion of finely decorated houses and the increasing sales of engineering projects, the marketing system of branch dissolution under the regional distribution agency system began to appear. The adjustment of the overall marketing strategy of ceramic tile products and the attempt of various methods mainly focus on the construction of brands, channels and terminals. In recent years, many ceramic enterprises have made attempts in this respect, although some of them began to make adjustments because they were dissatisfied with the performance of dealers in some areas. Typical Dong Peng Ceramics has set up branches in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Xi, Sassuolo and other places, and has made great achievements in recent years. The product marketing of some large ceramic enterprises is likely to integrate regional distribution, branch system, building materials supermarket and e-commerce in order to maximize benefits.

7. New pattern of ceramic tile industry

After many ceramic industry transfers, a new pattern of ceramic tile industry in China has been formed, and the original basic industrial pattern of Foshan ceramics leading the four major producing areas has been broken. The output of building ceramics in Guangdong, Fujian, Shandong and Sichuan provinces accounted for more than 80% of the national output before 2008, and now the share of ceramic tile production in the four provinces has dropped from 84.37% in 2008 to 20 12.

65.74%。 This data will continue to decline in the future.

The concepts of Guangdong, Fujian, Shandong and Sichuan, the four major producing areas of China ceramic tile industry, have been completely subverted. The national ceramic tile production capacity report released at the end of 20 1 1 shows that the daily output of ceramic enterprises in Jiangxi province reaches 33 1.6 1 10,000 square meters, exceeding that of Sichuan province by 2,509,500 square meters, ranking fourth in the country.

According to statistics, the output of building ceramics in Jiangxi Province was only 1 100 million square meters in 2008, ranking seventh in the country, and increased by 134.4% in 2009 (the output reached 243 million square meters, ranking sixth in the country). In 20 10, the growth rate was 98.65% (the output reached 484 million square meters, ranking fifth in China); 20 1 1 increased by 23.75% (the output was 593 million square meters, ranking fifth in China). The output of 20 12 increased by 6.9%.

639 million square meters, surpassing Sichuan to become the fourth largest producer of building ceramics in China.

In the process of transferring and relocating the building ceramics industry, the number of ceramic factories in Foshan has been greatly reduced, and the output of ceramic tiles in Guangdong has declined several times in recent years. However, ceramic tile manufacturers who have moved to the mainland generally encounter such problems, and the comprehensive development conditions are far less than those in Guangdong. In the later stage of industrial transfer, more ceramic enterprises choose to transfer and expand in Guangdong (such as Enping, Kaiping, Yunfu, Yingde, etc.). ), or choose to develop in Guangxi, which is close to Guangdong's human geography, and Guangdong's ceramic tile output will increase again. 20 1 1 The National Ceramic Tile Production Report shows that Guangdong Province is still the largest ceramic tile production province in China, with the total number of production lines and total production capacity reaching one third of the whole country. Although the number of ceramic tile enterprises in Foshan has decreased significantly in recent years, the ceramic tile production lines in Zhaoqing, Qingyuan and Enping have increased significantly. The leading position of Guangdong ceramic tiles centered on Foshan ceramics still exists in China.

At present, Guangdong (20 12 output: 2.227 billion square meters), Fujian (2 1.7 1 100 million square meters), Shandong (932 million square meters), Jiangxi (639 million square meters) and Sichuan (5. At present, the second echelon (output1~ 500 million square meters) in China's ceramic tile producing areas is: Liaoning, Hubei, Henan, Guangxi, Shaanxi, Hebei, Chongqing and Hunan, with a total output of 2.058 billion square meters; Accounting for 22.89% of the national output.

At the same time of rapid development and expansion, the industrial structure is also quietly changing. The old industrial pattern began to disintegrate, and a new industrial pattern gradually formed. However, the new industrial system has not yet been fully formed. In other words, the new industrial pattern has broken the old industrial pattern and revealed some development directions of the new pattern of building ceramics industry, but it is still a long way from forming a stable new pattern of building ceramics industry. Therefore, under the new situation and new pattern, the development of building ceramics industry and production field is influenced by industry and government. In recent years, the development of China's building ceramics industry has the following characteristics:

The first is expansion. During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the output doubled and maintained double-digit growth for eight consecutive years. The second is industrial transfer. Foshan ceramic industry transfer is the biggest industrial transfer in the history of building ceramics in China. Foshan ceramic enterprises have set up factories all over the country, covering an area of more than 40,000 mu. The third is improvement, based on energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental protection. As a result, 70% ceramic enterprises in Foshan and nearly 50% ceramic enterprises in Zibo were closed. Jinjiang, Fujian has clearly felt the pressure in this regard. Jiajiang issued corresponding policies, and even the Gao 'an government took action. The fourth is to re-layout. On the surface, it is almost everywhere, and emerging ceramic producing areas have sprung up like mushrooms after rain, such as Heyuan, Enping and Yunfu in Guangdong, Gao 'an, Jingdezhen and Fengcheng in Jiangxi, tengxian in Guangxi, Dangyang and Qichun in Hubei, Yueyang, Linxiang, Hengyang and Chaling in Hunan, Faku and Jianping in Liaoning, and Xianyang and Baoji in Shaanxi. In previous years (2009~20 1 1), there were 8 provinces with annual increase of more than 50%, most of which exceeded 100%.

The concept of Foshan ceramics is permeating all parts of the country. The original concept of Foshan ceramics is expanding and changing, and it has not faded as many people worry. With the large-scale transfer of Foshan ceramics, the concept of Foshan ceramics has become broader and more vague, and there is no sign of gradual dilution at present. With the expansion of its scope, whether it will be diluted in the future is worthy of attention. China ceramic producing area has entered the post-Foshan ceramic era. Due to the increase of the proportion of logistics cost, the characteristics of building ceramics market regionalization are more and more obvious, which directly leads to the regionalization of manufacturing. Because of the characteristics of building ceramics industrial clusters, too many clusters will easily lead to the pressure of environmental protection and energy consumption, and the new building ceramics industrial pattern will fully present a wide range of relative dispersion and limited concentration in small areas (perhaps it is reasonable to concentrate 100- 150 production lines in one place). In the process of further development of building ceramics industry, emerging building ceramics producing areas will gradually improve the new building ceramics industrial pattern and industrial system in the competition of raw material advantages, energy advantages and related regional advantages, and each building ceramics producing area will complete its own industrial orientation, and the sustainable development of building ceramics industry in China will also enter a new stage.

The emerging new pattern of ceramic tile industry will have an impact on the production capacity, sales and brand of old ceramic tile industrial bases (such as Zibo, Jiajiang, Minqing, Jinjiang and Foshan). Zibo ceramics may be the most affected, followed by Fujian ceramics and Sichuan ceramics. Foshan Ceramics has gathered more ceramic enterprise headquarters and supporting enterprises such as machinery and equipment, colored glaze and so on because of its well-known regional brand characteristics and the strategy of developing headquarters economy. The actual benefit of Foshan ceramics regional brand is still strengthening, and the transfer of Foshan ceramics industry has caused the change of Foshan ceramics concept without dilution. 20 10,

20 1 1 year, a large number of Foshan ceramic enterprises put their strategic focus back to Guangdong (Enping, Kaiping, Qingyuan and other places) and Guangxi, and the concepts of pan-Foshan ceramics and Guangdong ceramics became increasingly blurred.

The transfer of Foshan ceramic industry and the construction of a new pattern of China ceramic tile industry have come to an end, and a new system of China ceramic tile industry is taking shape. The post-Foshan ceramic era is coming, and the sustainable development of China ceramic tile industry is entering a new stage.

8. The influence of national industrial policies on industrial development.

In recent years, the state has promulgated a series of industrial policies and regulations, which directly affect the development of China ceramic tile industry. For example, the Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan of Building Sanitary Ceramics Industry, Energy Consumption Limit of Building Sanitary Ceramics Unit Product (GB2 1252) and Pollutant Discharge Standard of Ceramic Industry (GB25464).

In 20 10, the government of Jinjiang City, Fujian Province issued the Work Plan for Deepening Pollution Control in Ceramic Industry in Jinjiang City (Jin [2010] No.442), and issued the Work Plan for phasing out the use of natural gas in gas generators in ceramic industry in Jinjiang City within a time limit. Subordinate towns and villages have issued documents promising to complete all the "coal to gas" work plans by the end of September 2065438+2003. 20 12, 10 Qingyuan municipal government of Guangdong province has also issued an implementation plan to promote the work of "changing coal into gas" in ceramic enterprises, similar to Gao 'an municipal government in Jiangxi, Zhaoqing in Guangdong, Faku in Liaoning and Zibo in Shandong. In fact, there are still many problems in forcing all ceramic enterprises to use natural gas: if there are still many producing areas in the country that can use coal to make gas after a period of time, it means that the government is facing unfair competition in manufacturing; If everyone completes the "coal to gas", can the supply of natural gas be guaranteed (Jiajiang production area could not guarantee the supply of natural gas in that year, so many ceramic enterprises switched to coal to make gas), and the ceramic construction industry is a continuous production industry. Who will be responsible for the loss caused by gas failure (unable to supply enough natural gas continuously)?

Natural gas is monopolized. What is the mechanism of its price fluctuation in the future and who will supervise it?

20 13 In April, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the industry standard JC/T2 195-20 13 "Thin Ceramic Tiles". Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently publicly solicited opinions on the "Access Standard for Building Sanitary Ceramics Industry (Draft for Comment)" in official website (as of 2065438+031310.8). The official release and implementation of "Access Standard for Building Sanitary Ceramics Industry" will definitely have a great impact on the next development of the industry.