Some thoughts on green power

It is estimated that the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power will reach more than 65.438+0.2 billion kilowatts in 2030 and 5 billion kilowatts in 2060 in order to support the carbon neutrality goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions. As of 202 1, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar energy in China is 635GW. Based on this, by 2030, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar energy in China needs to increase by 89%, with a compound growth rate of 7.3%. By 2060, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar energy in China needs to increase by 687%, with a compound growth rate of 5.4%. At the same time, as the green premium of green power continues to decrease or even decrease to a negative value, the profit pad of green power operation will also increase. Therefore, in the future, the green power industry will be an industry with steady growth in scale and gradually thicker profits.

The competitiveness of green power operators is mainly reflected in their bidding ability and financing ability. If green power operators want to develop, they must constantly participate in the bidding for new energy projects in various provinces. The requirements for bidding are nothing more than rich operating experience, strong shareholders and strong financial strength, which are related to local governments. After winning the bid, construction will begin. The construction of wind power generation and solar power station projects has a characteristic that the construction period is short and the investment payback period is long, so the capital requirements are very high. This leads to the second point of competitive allocation-financing ability. At present, private enterprises generally encounter the problems of difficult and expensive financing. Although the state has also introduced many policies to alleviate this problem, due to risk considerations, the amount of loans granted by banks to private enterprises is limited, and the project financing cost of general private enterprises is as high as 5%-6%. In contrast, the financing of central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises in banks is much simpler, and some financing costs are even as low as 2%. In contrast, compared with private enterprises, central enterprises and state-owned enterprises can get more and better project resources through bidding, and they can get more low-cost loans to invest in project construction, which undoubtedly has a greater guarantee for scale growth and profits.

At present, there are two main types of green power operators:

One is pure green power companies, which only do green power projects. The other is a thermal power company, which is also very radical in the transformation of green electricity. However, due to the large share of the traditional coal-fired power sector, the short-term performance is greatly affected by coal prices.

In the long run, the future green power is bound to be a high-quality track. With the improvement of scale and technology, the cost of green electricity will go down for a long time, and the future profit will continue to increase!