Sino-American traditional geo-game plan

202 1, 1 1, 20 years after the "9 1 1" terrorist attacks in the United States.

However, this article is not about 9 1 1. It is a terrorist attack, a disaster for mankind, and also for the United States. Everything happens for a reason. Ansar robbers and Jewish profiteers reap what they deserve.

202 1 in September, at the macro level, many major events have taken place in the relations between major powers:

China's domestic economic reform has brought great changes, with a strong momentum and a firm attitude, and "* * * with prosperity" has become the main theme.

The economic and monetary environment is stable and tight, and the idea of giving up short-term growth goals and pursuing cross-cycle breakthrough development is very clear

In such a macro environment, the rules are subverted, the gameplay is rewritten, and many underlying logics are undergoing unprecedented changes.

Of course, in the face of the complex international environment and economic and trade relations in the post-epidemic era, China's approach is to overtake in a corner at the strategic level, and to adopt a nationwide system for comprehensive defense at the tactical level.

And China's biggest rival, of course, the relationship between this rival, is established by the United States itself, and the recent economic and monetary situation is obviously not optimistic.

Externally, Afghanistan withdrew its troops, and the intention of tactical contraction was obvious: the war expenditure was unbearable.

Internally, excessive currency has caused serious inflation in China, and the overlapping epidemic situation is not well controlled. The non-farm payrolls data in August is surprising.

The US foreign debt ceiling has actually peaked, but the printing press can't stop.

A very realistic trend, that is, dollar hegemony, is struggling and has reached a relatively critical node.

This is a delicate time node. The United States finally can't hold on, take the initiative to call China:

The weight and significance of dialogue at the level of heads of state are self-evident.

This is an important signal of the times, indicating that the game between China and the United States has reached a critical stage, and at this stage, the offensive and defensive trend has been quietly completed.

This paper interprets and analyzes the signals of this era.

There must be a reason for America's appeal. What happened at home is not to say that you can cover it up if you want to.

Before the president of the United States called, there were actually two important backgrounds:

The first is September 3, Eastern Time. In August, the US non-agricultural data was released, which was unexpected. Strictly speaking, it can be said that it is less than expected.

I have written an article to analyze this (the US non-agricultural data unexpectedly "exploded": the US economy is slipping into the abyss of perdition? )

The second is the old lady Yellen, the current US Treasury Secretary.

Faced with such a situation, US Treasury Secretary Yellen can no longer sit still. She said that the United States would spend all its money in June+10, 5438, and there was no money to repay the interest on the debt. If the funds are exhausted, the country will trigger a historical default, the credit of the US government will be questioned, and the financial system may be devastated.

In fact, domestic inflation in the United States is just a prefix, not the biggest economic problem in the United States at present. In the history of several economic cycles in the United States, inflation periods of more than 20% abound.

"The lesser of the two evils." Obviously, the Federal Reserve of the United States can only continue to start printing money, but it can't do anything about the debt crisis caused by the corresponding currency overshoot. Now, this is not a theoretical crisis, but a threat visible to the naked eye.

According to the hegemonic logic of dollar settlement, the United States, as the largest consumer country in the world, has no way to solve this problem by itself, shifting inflation to other countries, allowing other countries to provide high-quality and cheap goods and let other countries buy US Treasury bonds. In short, it is "American priority", which makes the whole world pay for the high welfare domestic economy of the United States.

Looking around the world, China is the only country that can solve the US problem, and at least it is qualified and capable of solving the imminent US debt crisis.

Therefore, the United States calls, the specifications are very high and the level is top-notch, and all kinds of meanings are self-evident.

As for what was said, in fact, there is no meaning of interpretation at all. The press release, the official caliber, is quite satisfactory, but the matter itself is very interesting.

To tell the truth, as a patriotic young man, I am very happy to see the United States calling on its own initiative.

Eagle sauce, which has always been arrogant, takes the initiative to bow its head, which is a very happy thing in itself.

The draft says an appointment, which means Biden initiated the call.

The last call at this level was to celebrate Biden's official inauguration as President of the United States. February this year 1 1 was an official and established dialogue. Time flies, more than half a year has passed. This time it's America.

This also shows that Biden is really anxious. Presidential anxiety, American anxiety, and American economy are more anxious.

Whether it is the Ansar gang or the Jewish profiteers, it may be that the United States has been sitting in the position of the world's number one for too long. The United States has forgotten that it sometimes asks for help, and when it has to, it is also ingenious. Every time, he is a condescending attitude. Obviously, it is hegemonic plunder, and all the rules and bonuses have been eaten up. He has to make a gesture of being kind to others. This is the illusion of hegemony.

The situation is better than people. Under the economic pressure of internal and external troubles, Eagle Sauce can only bow its head.

It is not easy for the United States to achieve this level. Similarly, it also shows that the economic pressure in the United States has reached a very critical point.

In fact, since the 20021Alaska talks, the United States has frequently released so-called help signals to China.

It's just that I can't let go of my posture, the shelf has been held up, and I can't keep my face.

After April, from April to now, as soon as the US CPI is released, someone will call us on the same day or the next day, or send someone to visit us.

Smoke bombs have been released enough, public opinion is noisy, regional actions are frequent, and small moves have never been broken.

With the increasingly high standard of communication between China and the United States, China began the stress test of continuous communication.

What's the problem?

On the one hand, China paid a huge price to fight the epidemic and ensure production, and became the main driving force for the global economic and trade recovery in the post-epidemic era. The world disaster, to some extent, has become the key driving force for the rise of self-reliant China.

On the one hand, it is the beacon of American capital, which is increasingly dim, hegemonic and inhuman. After several rounds of global economic crisis and financial turmoil, the world can clearly see the currency tide of the dollar, and more and more countries take the initiative to "dollarize", which makes the foundation of the dollar hegemony begin to shake. If the United States can't maintain its domestic economy through the global plunder of the currency war launched by the dollar, how can it live in the future?

Objectively speaking, before 2020, although the United States said it was wary of the rapid development of China, it was far from the point where China could threaten the United States. According to Americans' thinking, through systematic trade sanctions and geo-strategy, China will develop in the direction that is most in line with American interests, that is, China will yield, not develop technology, act as their cheap labor and produce goods for them continuously.

Simply put, it is to put a Japanese condom on China's head. When it develops, it is a sickle. If you don't listen, you will be intimidated and lured. Cracking down on offshore companies in China, engaging in trade wars and geopolitical means ... For the United States, it is nothing more than such an idea of continuing to crack down on China with strength.

However, an epidemic completely frustrated the dreams and plans of the United States. Faced with the impact and loss of the epidemic, the United States, accustomed to being the boss, naturally believes that the whole world should open its doors and take whatever it wants, except printing money.

This time, it's different. China won't buy it. There's no epidemic. They're all dead. Can we expect it to be willing to help the United States under such a background and foundation?

When the United States was still immersed in the logic that "the dollar overshooted, and the industrial migration destroyed China's foreign trade and domestic economy", it was not found at all that the countries originally intended to replace China's industrial migration had all been beaten to the ground in the epidemic. Moreover, China, which has been introverted for a long time, has become tougher than ever on the exchange rate issue. Not only has it not been affected by imported inflation caused by inflation, but it has raised prices level by level to protect the exchange rate and raise commodity prices.

There is a simple reason. The robber who thought that scaring people could make them take out their wallets met with malicious stubble. Not only was he not afraid, but he took up his weapon in his backhand and fought back.

Not only that, China continues to sell US debt:

As the second largest holder of US debt in the world, China's attitude and position are very clear. How can you say that talking about business is aggressive and cheap?

The superposition of many factors has further increased the domestic economic pressure and crisis in the United States, and the external debt, domestic inflation and economic recovery are weak ...

Therefore, everything in the world has a cause, and the President of the United States took the initiative to call for the temptation to form a fixed "holiday" every month before the release of CPI data, all for a reason.

Calling is always a big country game, and in the final analysis, it is still a matter of interest. Since it is an interest level, we should always face to face, sit down, take out the contract, show sincerity, argue, intrigue, weigh the pros and cons, and sign the commitment letter after considering the interests of many parties.

If the United States can't lose face, show sincerity and produce some hard goods, this kind of business will never go on, and even the most basic stage of cooperation intention will be difficult to achieve.

Today's China is no longer the weak old China, nor is it a stage of development full of prosperity but lacking self-confidence.

Without boasting blindly, even from China's standpoint, the economic development model with low welfare, high output and much money and debt is hard to go on.

In the game between China and the United States, everyone was embarrassed to think about it, but let China continue to suffer and bear the dollar inflation. This time, I am afraid it is not a question of willingness, but a question of whether it is worthwhile to pay and return.

It is meaningless to shout patriotic slogans blindly, but the thoughts and worries about the country are true.

Next, the game between China and the United States will change a lot because of the active appeal of the United States:

1, first of all, the confrontation between China and the United States will have a relatively moderate stage, which will inevitably appear:

This will undoubtedly bring short-term confidence-boosting effect to China's domestic capital market and financial market.

After all, rickets in China's financial market can't be cured in a short time.

For this group in the investment field and financial trading market, we must get news.

2. Before the direction of the substantive relationship between China and the United States is determined, the RMB may further strengthen:

This is based on China's domestic monetary tightening, prudent and realistic policy environment, combined with the conclusion that the US dollar is overspent, there is no loss in trade and the depreciation of the US dollar is an inevitable trend.

To reverse or change this trend, the most important thing is to see the next substantive trend of Sino-US relations.

3. Based on the cooperation needs of the United States, the trade and technical frictions and restrictions between China and the United States will usher in a easing period:

The political persecution of overseas technology companies like Huawei, especially Meng Wanzhou, will be adjusted by the United States as sincerity, and the corresponding chip and technology bottlenecks will be alleviated.

However, we should be soberly aware that, in essence, it is impossible for the United States to fundamentally hope that China will rise in an all-round way, and it is always necessary to make appropriate profits at special times and under special needs.

4. China's domestic economy should not be blindly optimistic. The short-term relaxation of the international environment cannot change the economic line that has always been firm and confident.

The game with the great powers of the United States is doomed to be long and arduous, and the underlying logic will not change. When the United States is in trouble, it is absolutely impossible to accept and acknowledge the rising trend of China from the heart.

The temporary relaxation of the relationship does not mean that the future game, competition and even confrontation will be smooth sailing. Based on this underlying logic, in fact, many trends are not complicated.

At the end of the article, I want to talk about some personal shallow thinking:

1. For the participants in China's domestic economy, it is totally meaningless to speculate on the dollar monetary policy, especially for those who are related to investment. Don't take chances. It is inevitable that there will be major risks and problems in the American economy this time. It's only a matter of time. If you are not at ease and irrelevant, don't care.

Say you're welcome, ordinary people who may not be able to grasp the opportunity smoothly, in an environment full of risk crisis and uncertainty, don't think about taking advantage, it is miscalculation and ruin.

Never question and doubt the strong will, firm belief and firm attitude of our motherland. Once the direction of the domestic economy is determined, there is no such thing as "too big to fail". Many of the original gameplay and profit channels have to be changed. Don't be against the trend, don't joke with the country.

3. China's great transformation project of economic system and social system will not be changed because of the foreign attitude and demand of the United States. Some things must be done, and some initiatives must be in our own hands.

Economic level, energy, agriculture, science and technology

At the social level, remould the core values and establish the goal of * * * with prosperity.

At the industrial level, we will achieve the goal of strengthening the country by science and technology, manufacturing, quality, specialization and cutting-edge, little giant, green mountains and green waters, and self-improvement by double carbon.

Real estate, internet economy, financial usury, high pollution and high energy consumption driven by debt, the sweatshop model that once occupied China's economic environment and values?

In order to realize the real highlight moment in China, some dependencies and some rules must be changed.

This is the essential significance of the once-in-a-century great change.

Playing games between great powers is easy to attack and defend, and it is not worth being blindly proud and happy.

Borrow a sentence from Ms. Hua Chunying, the spokeswoman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, as the crowning touch of today's article:

"I just want to say that China's goal has never been to surpass the United States, but to constantly surpass itself and become a better China."

If you win without arrogance and lose with grace, you should be cautious and restrained even if you have the upper hand in momentum and situation. The game between big countries will never be easy, and rising together with your motherland is the right way.

According to the latest regulations of the relevant state departments, the contents and opinions in this article are for reference only, and do not constitute any clear suggestions on house purchase and investment. Enter the market at your own risk. )

The above text comes from @ Panda Beibei Cute.