Quantitative thinking and probability

1. quantitative thinking: be a person with "numbers" in mind. Quantitative thinking may not make you make an accurate judgment, but it can improve your resolution of the real world step by step and get close to the truth.

Such as OKR target management method: quantifiable goals+quantifiable key results.

2. With multiple quantifiable conditions, a relatively certain result can be obtained.

In life, we should use quantitative thinking as much as possible. It may not be accurate, but fortunately it will be closer to the truth step by step.

3. If a poker master wants to win for a long time, it is just like real life: short-term depends on luck, long-term depends on strength.

You can't judge the next game, but you can find a probability model that is beneficial to you. In the long run, you must lose less and win more.

This is not a trick, this is a mathematical model after logical deduction.

You should have time to drive your own car. Buffett said: I earn more money by my ass than by my head.

Waiting for the compound interest brought by automatic driving.

Try to be specific when asking questions. If you ask vague questions, you will only get vague suggestions without any maneuverability.

6. The world is full of randomness and uncertainty, but if you understand and master the probability, you can master some laws behind the uncertainty, so that your life can be traced.

7. Bayesian inference: constantly adjust the judgment of the probability of something according to the increasing information. The more information you have, the more accurate your judgment will be. This process of constantly adjusting judgment is Bayesian reasoning.

8. Counterintuitive, you can work it out. Intuition is very unreliable. Don't use intuition for things that can be judged by probability.