How to forecast sales?

The calculation of sales volume should be a systematic knowledge. Retail is not the same as industrial enterprises in the traditional sense, because it also involves the problems of production capacity and sales network.

Simply put, the retail industry directly faces customers and goods come from wholesalers.

For those who have never opened a store: make a prediction. Go to frontispiece where you open the store, take a timer and count the passenger flow during your business hours. How many people pass by in a day, how many people pass by in an hour and what kind of people pass by, all of which are recorded by your stopwatch. The time is T, the potential customer is R, and the average value of your goods is S. Calculate the turnover of our store. The others are similar.

For the chain stores that have already opened, it is easier to analyze them by mathematical statistics. The seasonal choice of clothing will be larger. It is necessary to process the statistical data of the past year, the past quarter and the past month on the basis of quarterly or monthly analysis and comparison, find out useful data, draw a waveform diagram, mark the reasons for waveform fluctuation and oscillation, and adopt FMEA failure mode analysis to set goals for overall performance. For example, in July last year, the sales volume of summer clothes was RMB 6.5438+0 million, so on the basis of RMB 6.5438+0 million, what is the target for this year, whether there is an incentive mechanism, how the staff skills are, and how the clothing design is, all these should be included in the forecast. Marketing is systematic knowledge, and the simple formula is very pale. If you ask me, the forecast amount is this time last year. Or actual sales at this time last month * target growth percentage. This percentage needs a series of measures to ensure. It should be based on the previous sales growth in 2007, 2008 and 2009. If there are changes in advertising, brand management and company capital injection this year, we should also take the factors of change into account.

In short, only by in-depth understanding, mastering theoretical knowledge, and constantly exploring their own forecasting formulas in practice.