New energy vehicles have developed to the fourth stage, the next step will be how to layout, break the game

Written by |Tianjin Auto

New energy vehicles are in the stage of rapid development, in this new track, will inevitably encounter problems. At the China Electric Vehicle Association Forum (2023) held not long ago, many industry gurus gathered in Beijing to y discuss the development situation of the global automobile industry, the path of high-quality development of new energy vehicles, China's development strategy for intelligent networked vehicles, and the development trend of the core industry chain supply chain, such as power batteries.

These big names are all practitioners in the current automotive development process, and they are here to express their views and make timely corrections and suggestions for this fast-developing industry.

#Four Stages

Zhang Xiyong, general manager of BAIC Group, shared his insights on topics such as electrification transition, transportation and green energy integration and green development. He believes that the new energy vehicle industry, especially the development of pure electric vehicles still has a long way to go, and that the whole society and the whole industry should unswervingly promote the electrification to the deep development. This includes the unbalanced regional development of new energy vehicle development, and the need to adhere to the coordinated development of pure electric hybrid and pure fuel cell technologies.

He divided China's new energy vehicle development into four phases spread over the 30-year period from 1992 to 2022.

In the first stage, the main focus is on scientific research, which is promoted from some major national specialties. With strong support from the government, China's electric vehicle industry nourished and sprouted.

The second stage, the promotion and implementation of various documents and plans in 2007-2017, laid the foundation for the orderly development of the new energy vehicle industry.

From 2009 to 2012, 25 demonstration cities took the lead in promoting the use of public **** services such as public transportation, leasing, public services, sanitation and postal services, but the influence was limited, and as of the end of 2012, the cumulative promotion of 27,000 new energy vehicles, of which the promotion of 23,000 in the public sector, the promotion of 4,000 in the private sector.

The third stage, the market development and opening up stage, the product into the introduction period. This stage is more iconic events is the traditional oil vehicle enterprises to new energy transformation.

Beijing Automotive New Energy, as one of the earliest enterprises to start developing pure electric vehicles in China, is a pioneer in demonstration operation and industrialization development, and ranked first in China's pure electric vehicle sales for seven consecutive years from 2013-2019.

By 2020 BYD released the industry-leading blade battery, 2021 released the super hybrid DMi technology, 2022 BYD with 1.868 million new energy vehicle sales topped the world, at the end of the same year to become the world's third-largest market capitalization of the automobile enterprises, effectively enhancing the global influence of the independent brand of automobiles.

As China's earliest enterprises to start developing pure electric vehicles, both BAIC and BYD have seized the opportunity given by the times. Subsequently, the new car-making forces represented by Tesla and Weixiao Li also began to join the competition and development of the auto industry.

The fourth stage, from 2021 to now, is the dual-carbon strategy "2060" leading China's automobile development.

Led by the goal of "Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutral", China's new energy vehicles achieved explosive growth in 2021 and 2022, presenting a good situation of market scale and double improvement in the quality of development, realizing sales of new energy vehicles of 3,521,000 and 6,887,000 respectively, with the penetration rate of 13.4% and 25.6%. 13.4%, 25.6%, 2022 new energy vehicle penetration rate of more than 20%, marking the new energy automobile industry has a scale development effect, the industry began to enter the popularization stage, the market began to expand rapidly.

Of these, plug-in hybrid vehicles will realize sales of 603,000 and 1,158,000 units in 2021 and 2022 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 140% and 150%, becoming a new growth point.

Meanwhile, China's new energy automobile industry began to participate in the global competition. in 2022, China accounted for three of the top 10 companies in the global sales of new energy vehicles, power battery installed capacity of the top 10 companies in China to occupy six seats, China's new energy automobile exports 679,000 vehicles in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times.

#New Firing Point#

While the new energy industry sales results are good, but from the point of view of a number of companies released financial reports, not profitable. "There is a very real problem, the growth of electric vehicles do not make money, make money on fuel vehicles do not grow." Zhang Xiyong bluntly.

Zhang Xiyong mentioned, in the future of transportation and energy green integration of the development process, new energy vehicles will play a key role in traction, the current new energy automobile industry also exists in the field of battery raw materials and automotive-grade chips, such as the "neck" area, the cost of higher than the selling price and the capacity utilization rate is not high, the commercial vehicles and new energy penetration rate is also Comparatively low problem.

So, the new energy to commercial vehicles iterative upgrading is revolutionary, and the automotive industry to achieve the "double carbon" goal is of great significance. Zhang Xiyong said, China's new energy commercial vehicle market is highly subsidized to the post-subsidy era.

After a brief downturn, the new energy commercial vehicle market showed explosive growth in 2022, with sales reaching 186,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 54%, especially new energy heavy trucks is to achieve a blowout growth of 148%, especially in the rapid development of power switching.

Zhang Xiyong believes that the new energy commercial vehicle technology is constantly upgrading, the future will present a multi-technology route coexisting situation, the short-distance scenarios will be mainly used in pure electric + power switching products, fuel cells will be mainly used for medium and long-distance, medium and heavy-duty models. "It is expected that by 2030 the new energy commercial vehicle market size will exceed 1.5 million units, the penetration rate is expected to exceed 30%, will be directly through the decarbonization of the transport structure, directly pulling the rapid development of renewable electricity, green hydrogen and other clean energy." Zhang Xiyong said.

New energy commercial vehicle competition pattern is taking shape, traditional enterprises new forces rise up, BAIC in this field is also accelerating the layout, and set the commercial vehicle sales of 50,000 units this year, mainly contains logistics vehicles, buses, medium and heavy trucks, next year strive for 100,000 units.

It is undeniable that China's new energy automobile industry to achieve today's results, fully embodies the effective market, the role of the government.

But the current transformation of the automotive industry is very fast and intense, so in the transition process inevitably encountered such as profitability, technological innovation, industry chain internal consumption and other difficulties and bottlenecks, how to achieve *** win also need to continue to expand the product, technology, brand, culture and international influence, to truly realize the "going out" to "Into the go" "on the go". iDailycar

This article is from the author of the car number of daily car V, the copyright belongs to the author, any form of reproduced please contact the author. The content only represents the author's point of view, has nothing to do with easy car