What is an economic crisis?

[Edit this paragraph] Overview of the economic crisis

Economic crisis refers to the continuous contraction (negative economic growth) of one or more national economies or the whole world economy for a relatively long period of time. It is an overproduction crisis that broke out periodically in the process of capitalist economic development. This is a decisive stage in the economic cycle. Since the first general economic crisis broke out in Britain from 65438 to 0825, the capitalist economy has never shaken off the influence of the economic crisis. The economic crisis is the inevitable result of the capitalist system. Because of the characteristics of capitalism, its outbreak also has certain rules.

The economic crisis means that the economic system has not produced enough consumption value. That is the crisis of overcapacity. Some scholars divide economic crisis into passive crisis and active crisis.

The so-called passive economic crisis refers to the situation that the national macroeconomic management authorities have a serious economic recession or a sharp devaluation of the currency without preparation, which leads to a financial crisis and then evolves into an economic crisis. If the nature of the crisis is negative, it is hard to think that the currency will rebound after the crisis, and the process of the crisis is actually a process of re-finding and confirming the value of the domestic currency.

Active crisis refers to the result of policy actions taken by macroeconomic management authorities to achieve a certain goal. The crisis is completely expected by the management, and the crisis or economic recession can be regarded as the opportunity cost of reform.

[Edit this paragraph] The reasons for the economic crisis may be:

★ Economic policy mistakes

★ Raw materials are tight, especially the crude oil crisis.

★ Natural disasters

★ The consequences of globalization

★ Financial policy mistakes

The main cause of the economic crisis is the disparity between the rich and the poor. Another reason why this crisis is so serious is that China's foreign exchange reserves are too high! The specific analysis is as follows:

I. Consumption share

All the goods in the market are like a big cake, and everyone has their share of consumption. Your share is your income.

If the demand is insufficient, the total sales of goods are not smooth, there is only one reason: some people have not taken their share of consumption from the market! Why don't you come and get it?

Second, demand precipitation.

Commodities and money always flow in opposite directions at the same time. So, if the goods don't move, someone must store the corresponding money. No matter where the money is now, one thing is certain, that is, it will not flow!

Because capitalism has its own insoluble contradictions, that is, the contradiction between private ownership and capitalist consumption power; Possession of means of production means possession of more means of consumption. Can you still consume after possession? So capitalism will always have the problem of insufficient demand! ! Every production cycle will produce demand precipitation, and accumulation is a crisis!

During the crisis, the poor suffered, and after the rich slowly consumed the excess sediment, production resumed; This cycle is endless like epilepsy.

Now, the capitalist theory of insufficient consumption explains some important phenomena.

1, asset shrinkage: where has it shrunk? Mainly through the discount promotion of merchants, it flowed into the pockets of ordinary people, which improved the purchasing power of workers in disguise and transferred the consumption share that capitalists could not consume to ordinary people, thus alleviating the crisis; This is a natural phenomenon of economic fever.

In other words, if the boss doesn't give the workers a raise in the company, he will give them a raise in the market! Asset shrinkage is God's bank transfer.

2. Credit consumption: This is a big scam! Workers have no money to spend because the distribution is too small. In order to sell products, capitalist groups say that they will use future money and dare to borrow money to spend money! This is that the rich are deceiving the poor, but this kind of deception is incompatible with the tradition of China people; Therefore, the development of capitalism in China will be much more difficult culturally.

3. American high debt: its essence is that the American government borrows money from capitalists to buy capitalist products, so that production can continue; How does the government use this money? Mainly fighting.

4. Low growth: How many mouthfuls can you expect the rich to eat every year?

Why is China developing rapidly? There are three reasons: 1, China people suddenly have money, and there is a strong demand in all aspects. Before 2005, the demand precipitation was very small, less than10%; 2. Export-oriented economy, selling the precipitated part to overseas markets; 3. The central government's strong regulation and control has appropriately promoted and protected farmers' market consumption share.

Three. Temporary measures

According to the current economic characteristics of China, the following four measures should be taken to get rid of the economic recession:

1, external: foreign exchange reserves decreased rapidly and massively.

This is the main way to help and save China's export enterprises. Foreign exchange reserve is a country's consumption share in the international market. Without consumption, the demand in the international market will shrink, which will seriously damage the export of national products.

2. Internally: issue bonds to get rid of the crisis.

Where does the country invest its money? Will affect the investment effect. In other words, government investment stimulates the economy, but it is the same money, the same quantity, the same investment purpose, and the effect varies from place to place.

A, using fiscal revenue to invest will basically not change the result. The problem is not the money collected by the government. How much can the government use? Insufficient demand has little to do with the government collecting more money and less money;

B, printing money, which is the same as the essence of taxation; Small amount, no effect; A large number means robbing ordinary people.

C, China's characteristic crisis countermeasures should be-issuing bonds, mainly the money of the rich who do not enter the cycle, saving the money with bonds, and investing with bonds to stimulate domestic demand.

3. Hit real estate hard

The essence of economic recession is a serious disparity between the rich and the poor. The real estate industry in China has taken too much consumption share from the pockets of the poor for many years. China's real estate industry is already in autumn, and it must go through winter to welcome spring. China housing prices need to drop by 50% to recover.

What should a drunken man do when he shouts a headache and his stomach is uncomfortable? Can only make him vomit! If a person has no self-control, he must do it. Only by hitting real estate hard can we effectively stimulate related industries and overall domestic demand. There is no problem with house prices for the time being, but they can rise in the future, but it is just a number;

If the government pays the bill to support the market, not only real estate, but all related industries will be depressed for a long time. It is the requirement of the law of economic balance to reduce prices and share profits.

The price reduction is to revitalize the chess game.

4. Implement differential deposit and loan interest rates.

Different deposit and loan interest rates for the poor and the rich; Poor deposits have low interest rates, while rich deposits have negative interest rates; Loans to the poor should be relaxed and loans to the rich should be tightened.

At the same time, the interest rate of the existing mortgage is 3-5 fold, on the one hand, to prevent social mood fluctuations caused by falling house prices, on the other hand, to let these residents feel at ease and stimulate domestic demand.

5. Tax cuts for the poor

It is the duty of the state to raise the threshold of personal income adjustment tax and reduce various taxes and fees of individual industrial and commercial households, small and medium-sized enterprises and labor-intensive enterprises on a large scale.

Fourth, long-term measures.

It is the internal behavior of the enterprise, not the external behavior, that leads to the economic crisis, the serious uneven distribution within the enterprise and the serious imbalance of the final market consumption share. Therefore, we must step out of the liberalism and Keynesian thinking mode of adjusting enterprises and economy from the outside; The state's intervention and management of the economy must shift from the outside to the inside of the enterprise. Details are as follows:

1, limit the consumption quota of bosses of large and medium-sized enterprises.

2. Strictly control executive compensation.

3. Vigorously raise the wages of ordinary workers.

4, enterprises should implement public sponsored accounting. Ensure the implementation of the relevant distribution system.

(For the original text, see /sunxinhua 123456cn)

[Edit this paragraph] The characteristics of the economic crisis

The economic crisis is a crisis of overproduction. However, the overproduction shown by the economic crisis is not an absolute surplus of production, but a relative surplus, that is, an economic crisis in which the demand of working people with the ability to pay is excessive. So when the economic crisis broke out, on the one hand, capitalists' goods piled up like mountains and could not be sold; On the other hand, the broad masses of working people are unemployed or semi-unemployed, and due to the decline in purchasing power, they cannot obtain the necessary means of subsistence. The propaganda outline of How to Treat the Essence of the Capitalist System is divided into three parts: 1 The decadent and dying essence of the capitalist system has not changed; 2. The cyclical economic crisis is an incurable disease of the capitalist system; The capitalist system must be replaced by the socialist system. (1) Capitalist economy is an abnormally developed economy; (2) The capitalist economy is inflated by the sweat of the working people; (3) Capitalist economy is a wasteful economy; (4) Many capitalist countries are heavily in debt; (5) The current capitalist economy is a complex economy. (6) The capitalist economy should be regarded as a low-level market economy, and various systems are not perfect enough. Its development direction should be the socialist market economy.

[Edit this paragraph] The main manifestations of the economic crisis

Before and after the Second World War, the phenomenon of economic crisis was different. But * * * is the same: unsalable goods, reduced profits, leading to a sharp decline in production (mainly industrial production), a large increase in unemployment, underemployment and a large number of closures of enterprises, serious damage and loss of productivity and products, social and economic paralysis, chaos and retrogression.

The decline in production and the surge in unemployment are the main signs of economic crisis before and after the war. The difference between pre-war and post-war is mainly in the currency and financial crisis. Pre-war crises are generally deflation, falling prices, tight money, rising interest rates, bank runs and a large number of bankruptcies; In the post-war crisis, due to the inflation policy adopted by state monopoly capitalism and other reasons, since the 1957 ~ 1958 world economic crisis, all major capitalist countries have experienced abnormal phenomena of inflation and price rise during the crisis.

Mainly manifested as: a large number of surplus goods, sales stagnation; Production has fallen sharply, enterprises have been underemployed or even closed down, and unemployed workers have increased sharply; The cash flow of enterprises is invalid, the currency is short, the interest rate rises, the credit system is seriously damaged, and banks have declared bankruptcy.

However, after the Second World War, due to the inflation policy adopted by state monopoly capitalism, major capitalist countries experienced the phenomenon of production stagnation and inflation coexisting in the economic crisis.

[Edit this paragraph] The root of the economic crisis

In traditional economic theory, the outbreak of economic crisis is determined by the basic contradiction of capitalism, that is, the contradiction between socialization of production and private ownership of capitalist means of production. But this theory cannot explain the modern economic crisis. Taking the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the American subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 as examples, the causes of the crisis have nothing to do with the private possession of the means of production.

In the past, we said that capitalists, driven by the motive of chasing high profits, tried their best to expand production and strengthen the exploitation of workers. As a result, the demand of the working people who have the ability to pay lags behind the growth of social production, and the goods on the market can't find a market, which leads to relative overproduction and economic crisis. But now it should be said that capitalists in a specific industry, such as real estate, finance, energy and other fields, make use of loopholes or monopoly positions in poor system supervision to desperately exploit the whole society, rather than their own workers (their workers often get rich together). If the value of this industry is inflated, society will pay the bill. It makes all citizens relatively poor and can't afford to buy products such as real estate and stocks that they control, resulting in a chain reaction of declining demand.

Modern economic crisis is not a product surplus, but a false wealth surplus. A house with a value of 6.5438+million was fired to 6.5438+million, and this 900,000 is fake wealth. The effect of making these false wealth is no less harmful to society and economy than making so many counterfeit money. At present, at least 70 yuan is in real estate and stocks for every 100 yuan, and their real value is less than that of 7 yuan. That is to say, every 100 yuan has at least 60 yuan counterfeit money in circulation. If this counterfeit money is not recognized, it has been in circulation, and people think that they have 100 yuan. But when 60 yuan's counterfeit money is identified, people will find that I only have 30 yuan, and my wealth has shrunk by 60 yuan. The economic crisis is when counterfeit money is identified.

The government's way to prevent the modern economic crisis is to crack down on false wealth that enters circulation like counterfeit money.