Uncertain thinking

"Uncertainty" is a topic of interest to me. In the investment activities in recent years, I feel that the market is full of all kinds of uncertainties. In order to write this topic, I reread the relevant part of Teacher Wu Jun's Intelligent Age.

Our traditional education tends to "mechanical thinking": the pursuit of certainty and causality. This way of thinking has a long history: from Euclid, Ptolemy, Newton to Einstein. It has a far-reaching impact on human civilization, and the "bottom logic" of the industrial revolution is mechanical thinking.

Our traditional education is also based on this mode of thinking. Interestingly, when I was practicing a lot of physics questions about sea tactics in the college entrance examination, I found an obvious contradiction:

I was confused by this contradiction at that time. In the later reading process, I know with great probability why there is this contradiction: high school physics is Newtonian physics, and Newtonian mechanics is not applicable in the microscopic world. In other words, the description of electrons in chemistry textbooks is correct.

This uncertainty in the micro-world once made Einstein a headache and said:

In the macro world, black swans appear from time to time, and we are still in this epidemic. We must consider another way of thinking:

We need the latter way of thinking in our real life, especially in venture capital. This way of thinking also requires our mentality: keep open, because we are not sure what is in front of us. This is also advocated by the famous investor Ridario.

I also began to change myself from mechanical thinking to this kind of uncertain thinking, so this article will be the beginning.