Thesis on agricultural technology promotion 2000 words (2)

Agricultural technology promotion essay 2000 words 2

An introduction to the factors affecting the promotion of eco-agriculture

Abstract: Eco-agriculture is the direction of the development of modern agriculture, our country is a large agricultural country, how to better promote eco-agriculture is of great practical significance. This paper takes a village in Jiaozuo City, Henan Province as an empirical research object, through the survey using multiple linear regression modeling to conclude that eco-agriculture infrastructure expenditures and human capital is the key to influence the development of eco-agriculture in the village, based on which the corresponding recommendations are put forward.

Keywords: eco-agriculture, multivariate linear regression model, recommendations

I. Introduction

Eco-agriculture is a modernized agriculture that can obtain high economic, ecological and social benefits in accordance with the principles of ecology and economics, and the use of modern scientific and technological achievements and modern management tools, as well as the effective experience of traditional agriculture.

As early as the late 1970s, scholars represented by academician Ma Shijun pointed out the need for ecological balance, ecosystem concepts and perspectives to guide the research and practice of agriculture. 1981, Mr. Ma Shijun in the agricultural ecological engineering symposium put forward ? Integration, coordination, circulation, regeneration? In 1982, Prof. Ye Qianji published the principle of ecological engineering construction in Yinchuan Agricultural Ecological Economy Symposium. Ecological agriculture? China's agriculture, a green revolution? An article, formally proposed China's? Ecological agriculture? This term. China is a large agricultural country, the process of agricultural modernization determines the direction of China's modernization process.

China's agriculture is characterized by decentralized development, a single agricultural structure, and rough management, which requires the construction of high-yield, high-quality, low-consumption, and sustainable modern eco-agriculture development model in accordance with the concepts and laws of eco-agriculture and adapted to local conditions. After 30 years of development, China's eco-agriculture construction from scratch, from small-scale experiments to large-scale implementation of the country's various regions of the eco-households, eco-villages, eco-townships, eco-counties flourished. At present, has initially formed a technical system of ecological agriculture, has the power to promote China's traditional agriculture to the development of modern agriculture. But at the same time, we should also see a lot of problems, many scholars have conducted a lot of related research.

Chen Xuejun (2010) on the ? The financial support of eco-agriculture? In the discussion of the financial support of eco-agriculture, Chen Xuejun (2010) concluded that it is necessary to increase government support, encourage the active participation of private capital; innovation of financial products; the establishment of a compensation risk mechanism as well as a credit guarantee system to increase funds; Zhang Yan (2011) in the? The technical promotion of eco-agriculture? (2011) in the technical promotion of eco-agriculture, it is concluded that we need to establish a scientific and technological innovation system and technology promotion system to meet the needs of eco-agriculture development; in the study of eco-agriculture system, it is proposed to speed up the construction of the management system, the scientific and technological innovation and promotion system, and the legal system, etc.; in the study of China's industrialization, Wang Jian (2007) puts forward the construction of agro-ecological bases, the active promotion of the certification system of agricultural products, the development of eco-agricultural industry chain, etc.; Wang Liqun ( 2011) through the normative analysis of the farmers to carry out academic education, professional skills, network information technology, policies and regulations and other aspects of training; in the field of regionalization research, there are Liu Yafei (2006) on the development of eco-agriculture in Jiangxi Province, analysis of the status quo and mode of development, pointing out its constraints, and put forward countermeasures; Wang Jinshuang, et al. on the development of eco-agriculture in Panjin City overview.

However, these studies generally have the following problems: 1, the analysis is too general, most of which lies in the theoretical narrative, and very few data analysis and measurement; 2, the study lacks continuity, resulting in many countermeasures have no timeliness, and still a few major directions; 3, eco-agriculture has a strong regional nature, most of the current research on eco-agriculture is still at the national level, and the study of the regional study is not too in-depth, there is no implementable. Implementation.

In this paper, the above issues are discussed in depth, first choose the region of Henan Jiaozuo City, Shanyang District, Baimafang Township, Shangma Village, to investigate the factors affecting the promotion of eco-agriculture in the region quantitatively, and regression analysis, to derive the impact of the development of eco-agriculture of key factors, and at the same time to give the corresponding recommendations.

The structure of this paper: the first part is mainly the establishment of the model, including the selection of indicators and data description, initial model assumptions, model testing, model revision and model analysis; the second part gives the main conclusions and goes deeper on this basis.

Second, the establishment of the model

(I) Indicator selection and data description

The data of 1990?2006 selected in this paper are from China Statistical Yearbook 2008 and Henan Statistical Yearbook 2008, as well as the actual collected information statistics, calculations, and analysis. The related variables are now given explanations.

1, the real output value of eco-agriculture Yi

It is known that the agricultural output value of the region in the ith year accounted for the proportion of Henan's agricultural output value Wi1, the proportion of ecological agriculture such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery Wi2 of the corresponding year of the surveyed agriculture in the region, and the value of Henan's agricultural output value ni, the rural consumer price index of 1990 as 100, and the corresponding consumer price index ci of the respective years, which was calculated by the The following formula to calculate the real output value of ecological agriculture Yi in the ith year

Yi = niWi1Wi2/ci(i = 1990, 1991...2006)

The real output value of ecological agriculture in the ith year is calculated by the following formula. .2006)

2. Eco-agriculture capital expenditure X1i

Agricultural capital expenditure, i.e., all kinds of fixed asset investment directly used by the government finance for the development of agriculture and for the service of agricultural production, is the material carrier and the basic element for the development of agriculture. The region's X1i is given by:

X1i = XWi3Wi4/ci

Where X is the sequence of funds invested by Henan in agricultural capital construction, Wi3 is the proportion of the region, Wi4 is the proportion of the region's investment in ecological agriculture, and ci is the same as above.

3. Human capital level 2i

Due to the unavailability of data on the stock of human capital, we give it in the form of proportions. First of all, we use the method of years of education to calculate the stock of human capital by the number of people engaged in agriculture and their education status in the region in the past years. According to the classification of the region's demographic information about education, the education level will be graded, and the average number of years of education at all levels as the weights of the base value and appropriate adjustments to get the stock of H:

H1 = ?HEimi H2 = ?HAimi

Where. HEi is the number of people engaged in eco-agriculture at the ith level of education, HAi is the total number of people engaged in agriculture at the ith level, mi is the number of years of education at the ith level of education, illiterate and semi-illiterate m1 is set at 0.5 years, elementary school m2 is 6 years, junior high school m3 is 9 years, senior high school m4 is 12 years, university and above m5 is 16 years , X2i = H1/H2.

4, eco-agriculture science and technology Input X3i

Agricultural science and technology capital input is the expenditure on the introduction, research and promotion of agricultural science and technology. Similarly, X3 is the sequence of scientific and technological funds invested in Henan Province, Wi5 is the proportion of scientific and technological funds invested in the region, and Wi6 is the proportion of eco-agriculture, X3i=X3Wi5Wi6/c

5, eco-agriculture environmental inputs X4i

Environmental inputs refer to the expenditures used to improve the environment, protect the environment, and resist natural disasters, etc., which are obtained directly from the survey. These data can be obtained directly from the survey, subtracted from the consumption index is obtained.

6. Other Eco-agriculture Expenditures X5i

Other Eco-agriculture Expenditures include all the expenditures related to Eco-agriculture other than those mentioned above, which mainly include inputs for the improvement of ecological output testing standards, expenditures for output and market interface services, and inputs for the corresponding government management system. This is mainly calculated using the residual method, and adjusted accordingly with prices.

(ii) Initial model assumptions

Y = C0 + C1X1 + C2X2 + C3X3 + C4X4 + C5X5 + e The use of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method of estimation of the initial model, the results are as follows:

The model R2=0.9742, 2=0.9625 can be decided coefficients are very high, and the F test 83.147. Significantly significant, but the coefficients of X1 and X3 are negative, contrary to expectations, and the t-test of the coefficients is not significant, which indicates that there is likely to be a serious multiple **** linearity.

(iii) Model test:

The correlation coefficients of the explanatory variables were calculated, and the following matrix was obtained

From the matrix of correlation coefficients, we can see that: the correlation coefficients of the explanatory variables with each other are high, and there is indeed a serious multiple **** linearity.

(IV) Model Correction

1. The following method is now used to optimize the model and screen for the best model (all regression models are listed in the table, of which only the one-way regression model is taken as Y about X2, with t-values in parentheses):

According to the following criteria:

I The coefficients are economically significant and cannot be negative

II All Explanatory variables are all significant

III The coefficient of determination should be high, and in this model it should be greater than 0.93

The screening is consistent with models 2, 3, 7, and 9.

2. Autocorrelation test (DW test)

DW3=0.809 < DL=1.015

DW9=0.89 < DL

The above two models are obviously positively correlated, and excluded.

The autocorrelation of the remaining 2,7 models are not determinable, DW is between DU and DL.

3. Heteroskedasticity test (White's test)

The results are as follows:

Model 2

R2 = 0.256431, P = 0.597552

Model 7

R2 = 0.402251, P = 0.271913

It can be seen that There is no heteroskedasticity in both models, but considering that the smaller the P-value, the better, the comprehensive analysis, model 2 is considered better.

4. Optimal model

Y = -2.544551 + 23.38843X1 + 39.75376X2

t-value (8.322649) (8.802230)

R2 = 0.97, 2 = 0.967

5. Model analysis:

Level of simulation Analysis: As can be seen from the simulation results, the simulation results of the final model are relatively satisfactory, with a high degree of fit, indicating that the final model predicts better.

Analysis of economic significance:

From the prediction results, for every increase of 1 unit in capital expenditure, the output value of eco-agriculture increases by 23.39 units, and for every increase of 1 in the level of human capital, the output value increases by 39.75, which is obvious that infrastructure and human capital have an important impact on the output value.

Third, the derivation

From the process of statistical data, there is still very little specific data about eco-agriculture directly, which also increases the difficulty of obtaining the data, but the good thing is that the survey area is small, the population is relatively small, and the authors are familiar with this area, so they get the first-hand information. From the Y value, the output value of eco-agriculture is increasing year by year, and the ratio is rising, which indicates that eco-agriculture is being gradually promoted, but from the relative value, eco-agriculture still has a lot of room for development. In terms of the simulated regression equation for this region, the investment in fixed assets is not strong enough and the scale is not large enough. The investment in agricultural infrastructure construction is still insufficient, the proportion is not high, and the main force to promote the rapid development of the agricultural economy is yet to be further reflected. At the same time, the education level of farmers is not high, seriously affecting the promotion of ecological agriculture, the scarcity of learning channels and training opportunities makes it more difficult to promote.

Although the other three factors are not reflected in the model equation, it does not mean that they are secondary.

As can be seen from the graph below

Eco-technology inputs are becoming more and more influential, only the region is relatively small in terms of annual inputs, but encouragingly, the annual growth rate is increasing, and can be expected to become a major driving force for eco-agriculture development in the next 10 to 20 years. As eco-agriculture has a strong geographical and temporal dimension, what is fundamental in this region may not necessarily be fundamental in other regions. And according to the current situation, the above two points is the key, but with the further promotion and development of eco-agriculture, other factors are likely to become the key, so there is a greater need for those who are concerned about the development of eco-agriculture can be empirically analyzed to give targeted and feasible recommendations. This is also the purpose and significance of this paper. We hope to stimulate more quantitative research on eco-agriculture and innovate better econometric models.

In the promotion of eco-agriculture, the establishment of a good financing environment is essential. From the main point of view of the government as the main body of capital expenditure, to increase the farmers really need to invest in infrastructure, the establishment of a series of monitoring mechanisms to ensure the efficiency of the capital, but the government's annual financial expenditure is limited, and the areas to be invested in is relatively unlimited. We can not rely on the government to solve all the things; so you can rely on the strong force of the market economy to allow enterprises to enter the field of ecological agriculture, which requires a policy tilt, the real formation of agricultural industrialization, to create a well-known brand of agricultural products, but also to establish the corresponding ecological products of the monitoring standards, regularly through the media to release the detection of rankings; on the other hand, as the main body of the eco-agriculture farmers, you can through the ecological The main body of ecological agriculture farmers, on the other hand, can through the ecological agricultural loan preferential and own funds insurance system to expand financing channels; finally, to establish and improve the laws and regulations related to financing, to reduce the financing loopholes.

For the rural human capital problem, on the one hand, we can re-educate the farmers, but it is clear that the traditional mode of education has not been adapted to the current rural situation, the literacy rate, time and energy, as well as interest, have led to the farmers to carry out the traditional learning opportunity cost is too high; therefore, we need to innovate the education mode of the farmers to carry out professional skills training, but the way of training is still to be deliberated. According to past historical experience and the author's life experience, the typical demonstration effect in rural areas will play a great role; on the other hand, we can increase the existing human capital in rural areas, through government policy to guide college students to return to their hometowns to develop, and contribute their own strength to rural development; but also through the focus of university education, with a clever way of college students to provide the correct and reasonable guidance.

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