How to improve the ability of macroeconomic analysis, Zhihu

When doing a good job in macroeconomic analysis, we should pay attention to the following eight issues:

(a) Define each variable accurately

The difference between financial and macroeconomic viewpoints is mainly caused by different statistical data on which the research is based. The statistical data of different systems often have differences in statistical caliber, and sometimes it is necessary to choose alternative indicators, so every component of total supply and total demand needs to be carefully investigated in the study. For example, so far, we have no monthly or quarterly consumption statistics, but only the total retail sales of social consumer goods. It should be noted that this indicator does not include service consumption. The monthly or quarterly data of fixed assets investment mainly refers to the investment amount of state-owned economy and joint-stock economy, rather than the full caliber. There are differences between customs statistics and balance of payments statistics in import and export data. Both the import and export of the balance of payments are FOB prices, of which the export is based on the statistics of the customs, and the import is obtained by subtracting the freight and insurance premium from the CIF import amount calculated by the customs. In addition, the import and export of the balance of payments also includes some re-export trade without customs and the adjustment of commodity return.

Some ratio data should be used more carefully. For example, it is often said that urban per capita income is 3 12 times that of rural areas. However, because the monetization degree of residents' income in China is not very high and the hidden income of urban residents is very large, it is not comprehensive to compare the monetary income of urban and rural residents only. For example, China's Gini coefficient is 0 145, or China's dependence on foreign trade is 60%. All these need to be specified, especially the international comparison cannot be simply made.

(2) Distinguish between stock and flow.

Inventory is hours, and flow is the total amount that occurs in a period of time. The balance of bank deposits is the stock, and the new amount in a certain period is the flow. Asset variables are generally stocks, while income and expenditure, income and expenditure are all flow concepts. It is often said that 10 trillion bank savings deposits have not been used, which is completely wrong. Every year, the national income or gross national product will be fully allocated and used, and there will be no unused savings. What is left in the hands of depositors is creditor's rights, which is the concept of stocks. It can be converted into cash at any time for investment and consumption in the current year, and then converted into traffic. The reason why this change can be carried out without too many restrictions is that some people will increase their savings at the same time.

There are many inappropriate concepts or expressions that should be avoided in the research. For example, the property owned by the rich, which accounts for 10% of the population, accounts for a certain proportion of GDP. This statement is not appropriate, but it can be said to be "equivalent" because these two concepts are stock and flow.

(C) attach great importance to inventory

The previous article has analyzed the macroeconomic effect of inventory increase and its impact on finance. We can understand the situation of effective demand and effective supply by investigating the changes of inventory. In fact, not only the macro inventory index is of great significance, but also the inventory situation of various departments or industries is very critical. For example, industrial production and sales rate, commercial inventory, oil reserve, coal storage in power plants, grain storage and grain storage in farmers are all very important variables in the study.

(D) Pay attention to the expected role

The macro-control of the central bank must effectively handle the role of public expectations. Researchers should be good at combining economic fundamentals with possible expected forms to consider problems. Market supply and demand is not a mechanical relationship, but a human activity, so psychological factors play a role. Usually, asset prices are determined by economic fundamentals. For example, in theory, the stock price should be equal to the ratio of earnings per share to discount rate. However, when the actual stock price is higher than the theoretical value, if market participants expect that the stock price will continue to rise and buy in large quantities, the stock price will not return to the theoretical value, but will deviate more.