Chen Qingtai and Ou Yangming talk about trends

The next two years will be a crucial stage for the development of new energy automobile industry in China.

Miao Wenzhi Kujun

"20 19 September, the Central Committee and the State Council issued the Outline of Building a Powerful Transportation Country. In February this year, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other 1 1 ministries jointly released the innovative development strategy of smart cars. In June this year, 1 1, the State Council approved the "China". Marked by these three important documents, China's new energy vehicles are moving from the primary stage of development to the middle and advanced stage of development. "

165438+1On October 26th, at the media communication meeting held by China Electric Vehicle 100 Committee, Chen Qingtai, Chairman of China Electric Vehicle 100 Committee, pointed out that the three documents come down in one continuous line, and they have focused on solving the problems of three electric vehicles, improving safety and solving the problems of short battery life, difficult charging and so on.

In Chen Qingtai's view, electrification has opened the prelude to a new round of automobile revolution, which is parallel and connected with the new energy revolution and the new generation of mobile communication; What supports the automobile revolution is the rapid development of mobile Internet, digital economy and artificial intelligence technology. The blending and interaction of these factors and the automobile revolution provide a technical basis and rich use scenarios for the future electrification, greening, networking, intelligence and enjoyment of automobiles.

However, faced with the deepening reform of the global automobile industry in 2020, the new challenges in 20021from the first year of the Tenth Five-Year Plan, the new requirements put forward by the "new development pattern" and the more complicated growth environment, China's new energy automobile industry will also face unprecedented challenges.

The next two years will be a crucial period for the development of new energy automobile industry in China.

Therefore, under the background of rapid development of 5G and artificial intelligence, how to grasp the strategic opportunity of "new infrastructure" and promote the development of new energy automobile industry; Further promoting low carbon, how to provide different technical routes such as hydrogen fuel, pure electric power, extended range and hybrid power have also become new topics facing the industry.

Capital enthusiasm promotes industrial development

1 1 month, driven by Tesla, listed companies of new energy vehicles made great strides in the capital market.

165438+1On October 9, Tesla won the first prize with US$ 390 billion, and its market value was ahead of traditional giants such as Toyota and Audi. 165438+1October 13, the "Three Musketeers", a new force in China Stock Exchange, rose more than 10% in a single day, and its share price reached a record high. Among the top ten companies in the US stock market turnover that day, there were four auto companies. Except Tesla, the other three are all China car companies. Weilai's stock trading volume reached US$ 27.404 billion, ranking first. Ideal ranked sixth, and Tucki ranked tenth.

165438+1On October 24th, the share prices of Weilai, Ideality and Tucki hit new highs respectively. Weilai reached $55.70 per share with a market value of $7,565,438+300 million; Xpeng Motors has gained more than 7 1. 1% in three days, and its market value has reached 5197 million USD. The ideal share also reached $43.64, with a market value of $36.5 billion.

It is worth noting that in the A-share market, the total market value of BYD, a leading new energy enterprise, once exceeded 500 billion yuan; Xiaokang shares also won 7 daily limit boards in 8 trading days.

"The company's market value ranking does not rule out short-term factors, but it largely reflects the expectations of mainstream consulting companies, analysts and investment institutions in the capital market." In this regard, Chen Qingtai pointed out that the recognition of new energy vehicles in the capital market can be seen from the market value, which also shows that the automobile industry has entered a period of great change, and the market position of automobile enterprises is being reshuffled, which also provides opportunities for latecomers.

In Chen Qingtai's view, the new force of making cars is the subversive of traditional cars. Behind the good performance of head enterprises in the capital market is the recognition of the transformation of China automobile industry.

"Although the asset scale, production scale, sales revenue and profitability of the new forces are far less than those of traditional giant car companies. The new forces in the United States and China have been highly favored by the capital market and objectively played the role of' incentive' and' forced'. "

In fact, as of June 2020, 5438+00, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have achieved "double growth" for four consecutive months. At the same time, China automobile industry and products began to show the characteristics of diversified development.

On the one hand, smart electric vehicles represented by Tesla and Weilai are favored by consumers, and the transformation of the automobile industry has accelerated into the middle and high-level development stage represented by intelligence and networking.

On the other hand, China's new energy vehicle market is showing a new feature of "hot at both ends and weak in the middle". Under the influence of consumer demand differentiation, the automobile market presents more and more obvious stratification characteristics. The sinking market with cost-effective advantage and the high-end market driven by user experience have become the new track for enterprise competition.

"At the beginning of the industrialization of new energy vehicles, the industrialization promotion strategy of" two-end crowding "was put forward, that is, from the two ends of buses and mini-cars to the intermediate car market. Now entering the new stage also presents a new' two-end extrusion' pattern, that is, from the two ends of high-end and economical electric vehicles to the middle cost-effective vehicle market. " Gao, vice chairman of China electric vehicle committee of 100, pointed out that the product structure of new energy vehicles has changed greatly from high-end Tesla to high-end BYD to economical Wuling.

"It is expected that the production and sales of new energy vehicles will not change much this year compared with last year." In Gao's view, "despite the epidemic, the market is much better than we thought, and the international optimism about the future judgment is beyond our imagination."

Industrial development promotes the energy revolution.

"It is predicted that the production and sales of electric vehicles in China will reach150,000 in 2030, and the number of electric vehicles will reach 80 million. If this prediction comes true, it will involve a series of issues such as energy structure adjustment, smart grid construction and transportation infrastructure upgrading, which will be a magnificent industrial revolution. " Chen Qingtai pointed out.

Under the background of global green recovery of carbon dioxide emission peak and carbon neutrality, it is also the next goal of the development of new energy automobile industry to drive the new energy revolution with new energy vehicles and achieve high-quality development.

On September 22nd this year, Chinese leaders delivered an important speech at the general debate of the 75th UN General Assembly, pointing out: "China will enhance its independent contribution and adopt more effective policies and measures, and strive to achieve the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060."

As the world's largest automobile producer and the largest automobile market, China's latest commitment to global carbon emission reduction will bring revolutionary changes to the global automobile industry.

The data shows that the current net carbon emission of China is 654.38+0 billion tons, which is the same as the global carbon emission target set by the Paris Conference in 2050. Achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, that is, zero net emissions. There is a certain pressure to achieve this goal, which means that new energy vehicles are needed to store energy and the energy system needs to be decarbonized.

Gao stressed that the focus of new energy vehicles is new energy. Originally, we only talked about electrification, not energy. Under the background of carbon emission and carbon neutrality, we must transform and emphasize new energy. New energy vehicles should use new energy and promote carbon emission reduction in the whole energy field.

"In the context of carbon neutrality, new energy vehicles will definitely be developed in the future, that is, from low carbon to carbon-free, and finally to renewable energy." Gao pointed out.

Based on the characteristics and efficiency of renewable energy such as wind power, photovoltaic and hydrogen energy, Gao believes that pure electricity has the highest efficiency and the lowest cost at present. At the same time, at this stage, charging and power exchange should be integrated. For commercial vehicles, changing electricity is a good business model. For private cars, the best way in the medium and long term is to charge.

In the field of commercial vehicles, Ou Yangming believes that the next step is to develop long-distance heavy trucks with hydrogen fuel cells, but it still needs to go through a stage, and the core issue is to solve economic problems. At the same time, this year will usher in the first year of electrification of heavy trucks. Based on the energy cost, electric trucks are expected to compete with diesel trucks.

"In the long run, the planning goal of new energy vehicles in 2035 is to require new energy vehicles to become the main products in the market. According to the requirements of peak carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060, this goal must be achieved and must be achieved as soon as possible. " Gao pointed out that the arrival of carbon tax in the future will make the promotion of new energy vehicles more urgent, and the expectation of future development of new energy vehicles will be better than expected.

"If the scale of new energy vehicles is realized, and then the new energy revolution is driven by new energy vehicles, the traditional automobile, energy, chemical and other industries will undergo earth-shaking changes, and truly realize the great changes that cars have never had in the past 100 years." High finally said:

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.