Background of macroeconomic situation

After years of rapid growth in the new century, the global economy has suffered the worst economic crisis in a century. 20 1 1 The global economy is slowly recovering from difficulties, the development situation is very complicated, and unstable and uncertain factors are increasing. The U.S. economy continues to be in a downturn, Europe is mired in a sovereign debt crisis, inflationary pressures in emerging economies are increasing, and economic development is slowing down. There is an obvious phenomenon of "double speed" in global economic development. The economic growth of traditional developed countries or economies is weak and there are downside risks. The European sovereign debt crisis and the persistently high unemployment rate in Europe and America have increased the uncertainty of world economic development. The economic growth in most developing countries is strong, especially in emerging economies such as China and Indian. The rapid economic growth has injected new vitality into the global economic development. However, due to the slowdown of demand growth and inflationary pressure, the prices of resource products are rising constantly in the shock, and the high prices of energy resource products are having a far-reaching impact on the development of the world economy. According to the report of the International Monetary Fund, the global economy grew by 3.8% in 20 1 1 year, and the developed economies, emerging economies and developing economies were 1.6% and 6.2% respectively, which were far lower than the growth rate of last year, among which the United States, the European Union and Japan were 1.8% and/respectively.

Affected by the slowdown of world economic growth, the demand for major mineral products has shrunk since the fourth quarter of 201/kloc-0, making financing more difficult. The mining stock market fell, especially the Standard & Poor's mining stock index, which fell sharply in the oscillation, far higher than Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Standard & Poor's 500 and other comprehensive stock indexes. Although the trading volume and total trading volume of mining stocks on the Canadian Stock Exchange have increased compared with the previous year, the share prices of most mining companies have increased since April. China's securities market and mining capital market also fell sharply, reaching the peak in March, and then the volatility declined. The market value of the mining industry in Shanghai dropped from the highest point of 4,2041billion yuan in March to the lowest point of110.3 billion yuan in October, a decrease of 25.5%. The market value of the mining industry in Shenzhen Stock Exchange dropped from the highest point of 338 billion yuan in March to the lowest point of110.60 billion yuan in October, a decrease of 28.5%.

20 1 1 Faced with the complicated and changeable international situation and the new situation and new problems in the domestic economic operation, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council have taken scientific development as the theme and changed the development mode as the main line, persisted in implementing a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and constantly strengthened and improved macro-control. The national economy continued to develop in the expected direction of macro-control, showing a good trend of rapid growth, good benefits and improvement of people's livelihood, and achieved the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. According to preliminary accounting, the annual gross domestic product (GDP) was 47 trillion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year, and the economy still maintained a rapid development speed, highlighting its irreplaceable role and position in the current world economy. Quarterly, the growth rate slowed down quarter by quarter, with 9.7% in the first quarter, 9.5% in the second quarter, 9. 1% in the third quarter and 8.9% in the fourth quarter. By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 4.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.5%; The added value of the secondary industry was 22. 1 trillion yuan, an increase of10.6%; The added value of the tertiary industry was 20.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.9%.

Consumption grew steadily and rapidly, and the pressure of inflation management increased. The total retail sales of social consumer goods in the whole year was 18. 1 trillion yuan, a nominal increase of 17. 1% over the previous year (real increase after deducting the price factor1/0.6%). The annual consumer price rose by 5.4% over the previous year. Among them, cities rose by 5.3% and rural areas rose by 5.8%; Food rose 1 1.8%, and housing rose by 5.3%. After the year-on-year increase in consumer prices reached a high of 6.5% in July, the increase continued to fall. The ex-factory price of industrial producers increased by 6.0% over the previous year, and the purchase price increased by 9. 1%.

Foreign trade continued to grow rapidly. The total import and export volume was $364,265.438 billion, an increase of 22.5% over the previous year; Exports reached $654.38+089.86 billion, an increase of 20.3%; Imports reached US$ 654.38+074.35 billion, an increase of 24.9%. The trade surplus was $65,438+$0,556,543.8 +0 billion, a decrease of $26.4 billion over the previous year.

Investment in fixed assets continued to grow rapidly. The fixed assets investment of the whole society (excluding farmers) was 3 1. 1 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.6% over the previous year, and the growth rate was basically the same as that of the previous year. By region, the investment in the eastern region increased by 20. 1%, the central region by 27.5% and the western region by 28.7%. The annual investment in real estate development was 601700 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.9%.

The investment in fixed assets in mining industry was 1. 1.8 trillion yuan, up by 2 1.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 3.3 percentage points higher than the previous year, but the overall investment growth rate was still lower than the national average growth rate of fixed assets investment (Figure 1). Before the financial crisis in 2008, the whole social economy developed rapidly, and the contradiction between supply and demand of mineral products was prominent. The growth rate of mining fixed assets investment has always been ahead of the whole society. But after the financial crisis, it has been lower than fixed assets investment. On the one hand, it reflects the rapid development of mining industry over the years, good accumulation of investment and construction, and certain overcapacity in some industries; On the other hand, it may reflect that the mining industry has entered a period of rational development. The investment in fixed assets in coal mining and washing industry was 489.7 billion yuan, up 25.9% year-on-year, with an increase of 2.6 percentage points over the previous year. The oil and gas exploitation industry was 305.7 billion yuan, up by 12.5% year-on-year, with an increase of 8.9 percentage points. Ferrous metal mining and dressing industry 125 1 100 million yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 8.0 percentage points. Non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industry127.5 billion yuan, up 24.2% year-on-year, with an increase of 2.5 percentage points. Non-metallic mineral mining and dressing industry128.4 billion yuan, up 28.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 20.8 percentage points (Figure 2).

Figure 1 Comparison between the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society and the growth rate of mining industry

Source: National Bureau of Statistics.

Figure 2 20 1 1 Changes in the growth rate of fixed assets investment in mining industry.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics.

In terms of smelting and processing, the investment in fixed assets of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 386 billion yuan, an increase of14.6%; Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 386,654.38 billion yuan, an increase of 36.4%; Non-metallic mineral products industry 1.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.8%; Petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industries totaled 223.4 billion yuan, an increase of 10 1%.

The investment in fixed assets in geological exploration industry (including scientific research and technical services) was 654.38+065 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 39.4% year-on-year.

Judging from the changes of fixed assets investment in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the mining industry, the investment growth in the downstream non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry tends to accelerate, and repeated construction may occur in some places, which needs close attention (Figure 3).

Figure 3 Changes in the growth rate of mining fixed assets investment in 2011year

Source: National Bureau of Statistics.

In addition, the investment in waste resources and waste materials recycling and processing industry was 46.595 billion yuan, up 30.2% year-on-year, maintaining a high-speed growth momentum and increasing investment, which fully reflected the increasing attention paid by the state and society to resource recycling, and the concrete actions of building a resource-saving and environment-friendly society were strengthened.

The growth rate of real estate investment has not changed much and has been decreasing since the third quarter. The growth rate of real estate investment has always been higher than that of urban fixed assets investment, with an average of 7 percentage points higher. The annual investment was 7.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 29.7% over the previous year, and the growth rate dropped by 3.8 percentage points (Figure 4).

Figure 4 Changes in the growth rate of real estate investment and urban fixed investment in China in 2011year.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics.